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  • The U.S. dollar was little changed on Friday in Asia as traders evaluated the latest trade news. Gao Feng, China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesperson, insisted again at a weekly press conference that the U.S. should roll back tariffs as part of a “phase one” agreement. “The trade war was begun with adding tariffs, and should be ended by canceling these additional tariffs. This is an important condition for both sides to reach an agreement,” Gao said. “If both sides reach a phase one agreement, the level of tariff rollback will fully reflect the importance of the phase one agreement,” Gao said, noting the two countries’ trade delegations are in deep consultations on this topic. Meanwhile, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Washington is “getting close” to a trade deal with Beijing. Citing unnamed people close to the talks, the Financial Times said an agreement may not be reached in time to avoid a new round of U.S. tariffs taking effect on Dec. 15. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping were widely expected to sign the deal at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Santiago, but Chile canceled the event in late October due to domestic unrest. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) unexpectedly extended loans through its medium-term lending facility (MLF) on Friday, while keeping the interest rate on one-year MLF loans unchanged at 3.25%. The PBOC also said it has injected 200 billion yuan ($28.60 billion) into financial institutions via the liquidity tool. The U.S. dollar was unmoved on Thursday as the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose to an unexpected five-month high and there were no new comments on monetary policy from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 225,000 for the week ended Nov. 9, the highest reading since June 22, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Meanwhile Powell is testifying before Congress for the second day this week. Powell said in written testimony on Wednesday that the U.S. economy is on track, but that the Fed was watching out for broader risks. He also indicated that the central bank is unlikely to keep cutting rates, after easing monetary policy three times this year. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was flat at 98.210 as of 10:50 AM ET (15:50 GMT). The biggest move within the basket was against the Aussie dollar, which fell 1% to its lowest in nearly a month after an abrupt weakening of the Australian labor market. That comes against the background of devastating bush fires that have also dented sentiment toward the Aussie in recent days, casting doubt over the country's long-term dependence on exports of natural resources such as coal that are widely linked to climate change. Elsewhere, the euro was lower, with EUR/USD down 0.1% to 1.0996 as Germany barely escaped a recession in the third-quarter. Still, Brexit uncertainty and fallout from the U.S.-China trade war continue to cast a shadow on the bloc.
  • Oil prices rose on Friday as OPEC's outlook for oil demand next year fueled hopes that the producer group and its associates will keep a lid on supply when they meet to discuss policy on output next month. Optimism that the United States and China could soon sign an agreement to end their trade war also seeped into the market after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said a deal was "getting close", citing what he called very constructive discussions with Beijing. The rosy mood came after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Thursday it expected demand for its oil to fall in 2020. Many analysts said that supports the view among markets that there's a clear case for the group and other producers like Russia - collectively known as 'OPEC+' - to maintain limits on production that were introduced to cope with a supply glut. But such a move may backfire, according to Jonathan Barratt, chief investment officer at Probis Group. OPEC+ on Jan. 1 cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), and in July, the alliance renewed the pact until March 2020. OPEC said demand for its crude would average 29.58 million barrels per day next year, 1.12 million bpd less than in 2019. That points to a 2020 surplus of about 70,000 bpd, which is less than indicated in previous reports. In the U.S., production keeps rising although there was a bigger-than-expected increase in U.S. stockpiles and rising production last week, something that would often lead investors to sell. Crude production rose by 200,000 bpd to a weekly record of 12.8 million bpd, the EIA said in its weekly report U.S. crude inventories grew last week by 2.2 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said, exceeding the 1.649 million-barrel rise forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll. The gains came after OPEC said overnight that it expected demand for its oil to fall in 2020, which provides a clear case for the group to maintain limits on production. While not a directional driver, the Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.2 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 8, compared with expectations for a build of 1.65 million barrels, according to analysts’ forecasts compiled by Investing.com. Gasoline inventories rose by nearly 1.9 million barrels, versus expectations for a drop of 1.17 million barrels. Distillate stockpiles fell by about 2.5 million barrels, compared with forecasts for a decline of 950,000 barrels.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th November 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,478 1,494-1,500 1,520
Silver-XAG 17.30-17.60 17.80 18.10-18.50
Crude Oil 57.20-58.00 58.65 59.40-60.00
EURO/USD 1.1030-1.1060 1.1110 1.1170-1.1200
GBP/USD 1.2920 1.2990 1.3040-1.3100
USD/JPY 109.30 110.00 110.70-111.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th November 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,459-1,452 1,442 1,438-1,430
Silver-XAG 16.75-16.25 15.90 15.50
Crude Oil 56.50 56.00 55.10-54.70
EURO/USD 1.0980 1.0930 1.0890-1.0850
GBP/USD 1.2840-1.2790 1.2710 1.2650-1.2600
USD/JPY 108.50-107.80 107.00 106.50-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (15th November 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1474.54/oz and low of US$1461.05/oz. Gold up 0.547% at US$1471.15/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1459-1438 with risk below 1438, targeting 1470-1478 and 1489-1500-1512. Sell below 1470-1512 keeping stop loss closing above 1512, targeting 1459-1452-1442 and 1438-1430.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,459-1,452
S2     1,442
S3     1,438-1,430
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,478
R2     1,494-1,500
R3     1,520

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

41.882

Buy
20-DMA   1484.70 Sell
50-DMA  

1492.17

Sell
100-DMA   1478.99 Buy
200-DMA   1393.97 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   59.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.241 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$17.09/oz and low of US$16.86/oz. Silver settled up by 0.382% at US$17.00/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.70-15.50 targeting 17.30-17.60-17.80 and 18.50-18.90; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.30-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.90-16.25 and 16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.75-16.25
S2     15.90
S3     15.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.30-17.60
R2     17.80
R3     18.10-18.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.313 Buy
20-DMA   17.50 Buy
50-DMA   17.64 Buy
100-DMA   17.13 Buy
200-DMA   16.12 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.075 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$57.81/bbl, intraday low of US$56.72/bbl and settled down by 0.834% to close at US$56.91/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 56.50-54.70 with risk daily closing below 54.70 and targeting 57.20-58.00-58.65 and 59.40-60.00. Sell below 57.20-59.40 with stop loss at 59.40; targeting 56.50-56.00-55.10 and 54.70-53.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     56.50
S2     56.00
S3     55.10-54.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     57.20-58.00
R2     58.65
R3     59.40-60.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.638 Sell
20-DMA   55.59 Sell
50-DMA   55.57 Sell
100-DMA   55.94 Sell
200-DMA   57.36 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   65.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.537 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Thursday an intraday low of US$1.0988/EUR, high of US$1.1026/EUR and settled the day up by 0.151% to close at US$1.1021/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1048), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0980-1.0850 with risk below 1.0900, targeting 1.1020-1.1060-1.1110 and 1.1170-1.1200. Sell below 1.1060-1.1300 targeting 1.1060-1.0960 and 1.0860-1.0805 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0980
S2     1.0930
S3     1.0890-1.0850

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1030-1.1060
R2     1.1110
R3     1.1170-1.1200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.357 Buy
20-DMA   1.1090 Buy
50-DMA   1.1039 Buy
100-DMA   1.1098 Sell
200-DMA   1.1116 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2824/GBP, high of US$1.2887/GBP and settled the day up by 0.258% to close at US$1.2880/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2900-1.3170 with targets at 1.2790-1.2710 and 1.2650-1.2600 stop-loss should be below 1.3170. Buy above 1.2790-1.2600 with targets 1.2840-1.2920-1.2990 and 1.3040-1.3100 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2840-1.2790
S2     1.2710
S3     1.2650-1.2600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2920
R2     1.2990
R3     1.3040-1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.0154

Buy
20-DMA   1.2875 Buy
50-DMA   1.2606 Buy
100-DMA   1.2456 Sell
200-DMA   1.2700 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   69.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.007 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY108.23/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.85/USD and settled the day down by 0.374% at JPY108.41/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.30-110.70 with risk above 110.70 targeting 108.50-107.80-107.00 and 106.50-106.10. Long positions above 108.50-105.00 with targets of 108.70-109.30 and 110.00-110.70 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-107.80
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.30
R2     110.00
R3     110.70-111.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.122 Buy
20-DMA   108.75 Buy
50-DMA   108.08 Buy
100-DMA   107.65 Buy
200-DMA   109.01 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   69.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.324 Buy

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