AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares ticked higher on Monday after Beijing surprised markets by trimming a key interest rate for the first time since 2015, stirring speculation that further stimulus was on the way for the world’s second-largest economy. China’s central bank cut rates on seven-day reverse repurchase agreements by five basis points to 2.50%, a move that nudged the yuan higher while lowering bond yields. Beijing’s latest policy shift added to hopes it might also be more serious about making progress in trade talks with the United States. On Saturday, Chinese state media said the two sides had “constructive talks” on trade in a high-level phone call that included Vice Premier Liu He, U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. In currency markets, the dollar was little changed against its main peers on Monday and well within recent tight trading ranges. Indeed, volatility in the market has been the lowest in decades recently and shows no sign of shifting. The euro idled at having found support at $1.0987 last week. Investors are awaiting the first major speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde due on Friday for clues on future policy. The dollar and bonds are likely to be sensitive to minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting, set to be released on Wednesday. However, he noted the soft report on October U.S. retail sales released on Friday suggested previously strong consumption was showing some cracks.
  • Major currencies marked time on Monday as traders looked to whether Washington and Beijing can soon sign off on a deal to end a trade war that has been a drag on global economic growth. Faint optimism for a breakthrough was supported by a report on Sunday from Chinese state news wire Xinhua, which said the two sides had "constructive talks" over the weekend. The liveliest mover was the British pound , which rose 0.2% to a two-week high of $1.2929 after Prime Minister Boris Johnson said all Conservative Party candidates at the Dec. 12 election had pledged to back his Brexit deal. It was also supported by fresh opinion polls pointing to a Conservative victory. Data from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Friday showed the U.S. manufacturing downturn deepened in October, while China data out last Thursday also showed a slowdown. Monetary policy meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will be in focus this week as investors continue to monitor the effects of recent central bank easing against a background of trade uncertainty and slowing global growth.
  • Appearances by several Fed speakers and a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde will also be closely watched for any monetary policy insights as trade discussions between the U.S. and China drag on. Meanwhile, a blast of global PMI data on Friday will be scrutinized for any fresh signs of fallout from the trade war. The dollar was lower late Friday as some optimism for the ongoing trade talks with China buoyed trade-linked currencies like the euro and the British pound. Against a basket of six major currencies the U.S. dollar index was down 0.17% at 97.85 in late trade. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said progress was being made on the agreement’s details, which helped lift trade-exposed currencies at the expense of safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen. It rose 0.3% versus the yen, last at 108.73, after the safe-haven currency had gained earlier in the week as political unrest in Hong Kong and trade uncertainty reduced appetite for risk. The Swiss franc also weakened 0.2% versus the dollar. Mixed signals on trade negotiations have abounded in recent days while evidence of the damage the dispute is wreaking on the global economy has mounted. On Friday, the Commerce Department reported that U.S. retail sales rebounded in October, but consumers cut back on purchases of big-ticket household items and clothing, raising questions about the consumer strength currently underpinning the U.S. economy. That may have also contributed to the rise in the euro and the pound.
  • Oil prices inched down on Monday in Asia despite positive trade news. Chinese state media Xinhua reported that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He discussed a partial deal with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in a phone call on the weekend. The two sides had “constructive discussions” about “each other’s core concerns,” the article said. The USTR confirmed the call took place. Asian stocks received a boost following the news, but oil prices were little impacted. A monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) were cited as a potential catalyst for the selling today. The IEA estimated that non-OPEC supply growth would grow to 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) next year compared with 1.8 million bpd in 2019. Also weighing on prices were data released late last week that showed weekly U.S. crude stockpiles grew by 2.2 mn barrels, exceeding the forecast of a 1.649 million-barrel rise. Oil prices were little changed on Monday following steady gains in the previous week with investors awaiting fresh clues over prospects for a trade deal between the United States and China, shrugging off concerns over steadily rising oil supplies. The 16-month trade war between the world's two biggest economies has slowed economic growth around the world and prompted analysts to lower forecasts for oil demand, raising concerns that a supply glut could develop in 2020. China and United States had "constructive talks" on trade in a high-level phone call on Saturday, state media Xinhua said, but offered few other details in a report released on Sunday. But a monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) put downward pressure on prices, after it estimated that non-OPEC supply growth would grow to 2.3 million bpd)next year compared, with 1.8 million bpd in 2019, citing production from the United States, Brazil, Norway and Guyana. Data released on Thursday also showed weekly U.S. crude stockpiles grew by 2.2 million barrels, the EIA said, exceeding the 1.649 million-barrel rise forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
18th November 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1470-1,478 1,494 1,500-1,520
Silver-XAG 17.30-17.60 17.80 18.10-18.50
Crude Oil 58.00 58.65 59.40-60.00
EURO/USD 1.1070 1.1110 1.1170-1.1200
GBP/USD 1.2930 1.2990 1.3040-1.3100
USD/JPY 109.30 110.00 110.70-111.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
18th November 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,459-1,452 1,442 1,438-1,430
Silver-XAG 16.75-16.25 15.90 15.50
Crude Oil 57.20-56.50 56.00 55.10-54.70
EURO/USD 1.1030-1.0980 1.0930 1.0890-1.0850
GBP/USD 1.2840-1.2790 1.2710 1.2650-1.2600
USD/JPY 108.50-107.80 107.00 106.50-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (18th November 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1471.30/oz and low of US$1462.39/oz. Gold down 0.222% at US$1467.73/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1479) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1459-1438 with risk below 1438, targeting 1470-1478 and 1489-1500-1512. Sell below 1470-1512 keeping stop loss closing above 1512, targeting 1459-1452-1442 and 1438-1430.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,459-1,452
S2     1,442
S3     1,438-1,430
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1470-1,478
R2     1,494
R3     1,500-1,520

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.882

Buy
20-DMA   1484.91 Sell
50-DMA  

1492.52

Sell
100-DMA   1479.00 Sell
200-DMA   1393.97 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   62.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.241 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$17.02/oz and low of US$16.80/oz. Silver settled down by 0.288% at US$16.95/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.15), breakage above will lead to 17.61. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.75-15.50 targeting 17.30-17.60-17.80 and 18.50-18.90; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.30-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.90-16.25 and 16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.75-16.25
S2     15.90
S3     15.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.30-17.60
R2     17.80
R3     18.10-18.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.313 Buy
20-DMA   17.50 Sell
50-DMA   17.61 Sell
100-DMA   17.15 Sell
200-DMA   16.12 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   51.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.075 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$58.04/bbl, intraday low of US$56.51/bbl and settled up by 1.682% to close at US$57.90/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 57.20-54.70 with risk daily closing below 54.70 and targeting 58.00-58.65 and 59.40-60.00. Sell below 58.00-60.00 with stop loss at 60.40; targeting 57.20-56.50-56.00 and 55.10-54.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.20-56.50
S2     56.00
S3     55.10-54.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.00
R2     58.65
R3     59.40-60.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.638 Sell
20-DMA   56.147 Buy
50-DMA   55.64 Buy
100-DMA   55.89 Buy
200-DMA   57.42 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   74.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.537 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Friday an intraday low of US$1.10138/EUR, high of US$1.1056/EUR and settled the day up by 0.264% to close at US$1.1051/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1030-1.0850 with risk below 1.0900, targeting 1.1060-1.1110 and 1.1170-1.1200. Sell below 1.1060-1.1300 targeting 1.1060-1.0960 and 1.0860-1.0805 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1030-1.0980
S2     1.0930
S3     1.0890-1.0850

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1070
R2     1.1110
R3     1.1170-1.1200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.357 Buy
20-DMA   1.1081 Sell
50-DMA   1.1040 Sell
100-DMA   1.1093 Sell
200-DMA   1.1177 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   81.958 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2866/GBP, high of US$1.2918/GBP and settled the day up by 0.210% to close at US$1.2907/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.292-1.3170 with targets at 1.2840-1.2790-1.2710 and 1.2650-1.2600 stop-loss should be below 1.3170. Buy above 1.2840-1.2600 with targets 1.2920-1.2990 and 1.3040-1.3100 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2840-1.2790
S2     1.2710
S3     1.2650-1.2600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2930
R2     1.2990
R3     1.3040-1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.878

Buy
20-DMA   1.2871 Buy
50-DMA   1.2619 Buy
100-DMA   1.2458 Sell
200-DMA   1.2700 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   80.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.006 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY108.37/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.84/USD and settled the day up by 0.342/% at JPY108.78/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.30-110.70 with risk above 110.70 targeting 108.50-107.80-107.00 and 106.50-106.10. Long positions above 108.50-105.00 with targets of 108.70-109.30 and 110.00-110.70 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-107.80
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.30
R2     110.00
R3     110.70-111.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.122 Buy
20-DMA   108.75 Buy
50-DMA   108.08 Buy
100-DMA   107.65 Buy
200-DMA   109.01 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   69.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.324 Buy

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