AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian share markets were mixed in subdued trade on Tuesday, pending clearer news on whether U.S.-China negotiations will reach a preliminary accord to end the prolonged trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Meantime, hopes that Beijing will deliver some economic stimulus provided a boost to sentiment. Overnight, CNBC had reported the mood in Beijing was pessimistic about prospects of sealing an trade agreement with the United States. Obversely, a new extension granted by Washington to let U.S. companies keep doing business with Chinese telecoms giant Huawei suggested a possible olive branch. Still, neither morsel shed much light on progress in negotiations, and the listless trading suggested optimism over prospects for a deal was beginning to flag. The next deadline in the dispute is Dec. 15, when another round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese good is scheduled to take effect. Wall Street’s main indexes had traded mostly flat on Monday, looking for direction on trade, though they ended the day inching to record closing highs. The British pound GBP= settled at $1.2954 after hitting a one-month high overnight as four opinion polls showed Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party on course for victory at the Dec. 12 election.
  • The dollar nursed losses on Tuesday as receding hopes for a preliminary trade deal between the United States and China hurt demand for the greenback. The yuan also suffered, touching a two-week low versus the greenback amid doubts about efforts to resolve the U.S.-China trade war. But the dollar took a hit on Monday after CNBC reported China is pessimistic about agreeing to a deal, which suggests a resolution to perhaps the biggest risk to the global economy remains elusive. Against sterling, the dollar stood at $1.2956, close to a one-month low. The pound has been buoyed by polls pointing to a victory by the ruling Conservatives in upcoming elections. The dollar index against six major currencies was little changed at 97.808, close to a two-week low. In the onshore market, the yuan fell to a two-week low of 7.0295 per dollar. Washington and Beijing have imposed tariffs on each other’s goods in a bitter dispute over Chinese trade practices that the U.S. government says are unfair The tariffs have slowed global trade and raised the risk of recession for some economies. Many economists say the drag on global growth will remain as long as tariffs are in place. Currency traders were also wary of the dollar after U.S. President Donald Trump met U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Monday. Trump has repeatedly criticised the Fed for not lowering interest rates enough. In a statement, the Fed said Powell’s expectations for future policy were not discussed, but Trump has for more than a year said the Fed was undermining his economic policies by keeping interest rates too high. The central bank has already cut rates three times since June to an historic low. Markets preciously expected the deal to be signed in the near future as Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson Gao Feng said earlier this month that China and the U.S. had reached an agreement on the tariff rollback, while White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow said on Friday that the two sides were close to a deal. The GBP/USD pair was little changed at 1.2954, after rising 0.4% earlier in the session on news that all Conservative Party candidates at the Dec. 12 election have pledged to back Prime Minister Boris Johson’s Brexit deal.
  • Oil prices fell on Tuesday in Asia amid more U.S.-China trade jitters. NBC cited a Chinese government source and said that Beijing is not optimistic about prospects for a trade deal. Officials in China are troubled by U.S. President Donald Trump's comment that there was no agreement on phasing out tariffs, according to the report. Looking ahead, traders are also paying close attention to the upcoming Dec. 5-6 OPEC+ meeting. OPEC+ agreed in December 2018 to cut supply by 1.2 million barrels per day. As that agreement comes up for review in the next three weeks, members of the cartel have already been sounding out that it might not want to deepen cuts. Traders also await weekly crude inventories reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the American Petroleum Institute this week, which are due on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. U.S. oil prices fell for the second straight day on Tuesday amid market jitters over limited progress between China and the United States on rolling back trade tariffs, while rising U.S. inventories also jangled nerves. A Chinese government source was quoted by broadcaster CNBC on Monday as saying there was gloom in Beijing about prospects for a trade deal, with Chinese officials troubled by U.S. President Donald Trump's comment that there was no agreement on phasing out tariffs. The lingering trade battle that has seen the world's two biggest economies impose tit-for-tat tariffs on each other has hit global growth prospects and clouded the outlook for future oil demand. Meanwhile a preliminary Reuters poll on Monday showing U.S. crude oil stockpile were seen rising for the fourth straight week also squeezed prices. The American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to release its data for the latest week at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) on Tuesday, while the Energy Information Administration's official weekly report is due on Wednesday. One possible factor supporting prices going forward was a renewal in geopolitical tensions, with news from Dubai that armed members of Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi movement had seized a vessel towing a South Korean rig at the southern end of the Red Sea over the weekend.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
19th November 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,478 1,500-1,520 1,500-1,520
Silver-XAG 17.30-17.60 17.80 18.10-18.50
Crude Oil 57.20-58.00 59.40-60.00 59.40-60.00
EURO/USD 1.1110 1.1175-1.1200 1.1230
GBP/USD 1.2990 1.3040-1.3100 1.3150
USD/JPY 109.30 110.00 110.70-111.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
19th November 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1470-1,459 1,452 1,442-1,438
Silver-XAG 16.75-16.25 15.90 15.50
Crude Oil 56.50 56.00 55.10-54.70
EURO/USD 1.1070-1.1030 1.0980 1.0930-1.0890
GBP/USD 1.2930-1.2840 1.2790 1.2710-1.2650
USD/JPY 108.50-107.80 107.00 106.50-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (19th November 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1473.89/oz and low of US$1456.31/oz. Gold up 0.280% at US$1471.17/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1479) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1470-1438 with risk below 1438, targeting 1478-1489 and 1500-1512. Sell below 1478-1512 keeping stop loss closing above 1512, targeting 1470-1459-1452 and 1442-1438.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1470-1,459
S2     1,452
S3     1,442-1,438
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,478
R2     1,500-1,520
R3     1,500-1,520

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

45.882

Buy
20-DMA   1483.50 Sell
50-DMA  

1491.72

Sell
100-DMA   1480.44 Sell
200-DMA   1395.59 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   82.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.241 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$17.01/oz and low of US$16.72/oz. Silver settled by 0.288% at US$17.01/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.15), breakage above will lead to 17.61. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.75-15.50 targeting 17.30-17.60-17.80 and 18.50-18.90; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.30-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.90-16.25 and 16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.75-16.25
S2     15.90
S3     15.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.30-17.60
R2     17.80
R3     18.10-18.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.313 Buy
20-DMA   17.50 Sell
50-DMA   17.61 Sell
100-DMA   17.15 Sell
200-DMA   16.12 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   51.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.075 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$58.11/bbl, intraday low of US$56.61/bbl and settled down by 1.708% to close at US$56.89/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 56.50-54.70 with risk daily closing below 54.70 and targeting 57.20-58.00-58.65 and 59.40-60.00. Sell below 57.00-60.00 with stop loss at 60.40; targeting 56.50-56.00 and 55.10-54.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     56.50
S2     56.00
S3     55.10-54.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     57.20-58.00
R2     59.40-60.00
R3     59.40-60.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.638 Sell
20-DMA   56.44 Buy
50-DMA   55.60 Buy
100-DMA   55.87 Buy
200-DMA   57.46 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   52.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.603 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Monday an intraday low of US$1.1047/EUR, high of US$1.1089/EUR and settled the day up by 0.179% to close at US$1.1070/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1070-1.0850 with risk below 1.0900, targeting 1.1060-1.1110 and 1.1170-1.1200. Sell below 1.1110-1.1300 targeting 1.1070-1.0960 and 1.0860-1.0805 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1070-1.1030
S2     1.0980
S3     1.0930-1.0890

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1110
R2     1.1175-1.1200
R3     1.1230

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.357 Buy
20-DMA   1.1081 Sell
50-DMA   1.1040 Sell
100-DMA   1.1093 Sell
200-DMA   1.1177 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   81.958 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2908/GBP, high of US$1.2984/GBP and settled the day up by 0.210% to close at US$1.2951/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2930-1.2840
S2     1.2790
S3     1.2710-1.2650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2990
R2     1.3040-1.3100
R3     1.3150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.878

Buy
20-DMA   1.2876 Buy
50-DMA   1.2619 Buy
100-DMA   1.2458 Sell
200-DMA   1.2700 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   85.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.006 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY108.50/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.06/USD and settled the day down by 0./% at JPY108.67/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.30-110.70 with risk above 110.70 targeting 108.50-107.80-107.00 and 106.50-106.10. Long positions above 108.50-105.00 with targets of 108.70-109.30 and 110.00-110.70 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-107.80
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.30
R2     110.00
R3     110.70-111.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.122 Buy
20-DMA   108.75 Buy
50-DMA   108.08 Buy
100-DMA   107.65 Buy
200-DMA   109.01 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   69.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.324 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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