AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares lost out to safe-harbour bonds on Wednesday as Sino-U.S. trade talks produced nothing but white noise, while concerns about a supply glut left oil prices nursing their biggest one-day loss in seven weeks. Figures from the American Petroleum Institute out late Tuesday showed a far larger rise in crude stocks than expected. That followed reports Russia was unlikely to deepen its cuts to crude output. Australia’s main index sank 1.3% led by the banks after the country’s financial crime regulator alleged Westpac had breached laws on over 23 million instances and applied for civil penalties against the lender. The prospects for progress on trade dimmed when China condemned a U.S. Senate measure on Hong Kong, vowing to take the steps necessary to safeguard its sovereignty and security. The Senate unanimously passed legislation aimed at protecting human rights in Hong Kong. Late Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened to raise tariffs further if China would not agree to a deal that he liked. Dour forecasts from retailers Home Depot and Kohl’s fuelled worries about consumer spending, while the energy sector .SPNY was the S&P’s biggest loser as oil slid. Investors now await minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting where it cut interest rates and signalled a pause for the time being.
  • The U.S. dollar was near flat on Wednesday in Asia as traders remained cautious ahead of the release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's last policy meeting due later in the day. Hopes for trade progress were dashed overnight by another warning from U.S. President Donald Trump, who said that he may raise tariffs even further if talks collapse. Tensions between the two sides rose even further after the U.S. Senate passed two Hong Kong-related bills that support protesters in the city. China's foreign ministry spokesman called the decision a blatant interference in China's internal affairs, and said the U.S. faced "negative consequences" if it persisted. CNBC reported earlier this week that Beijing is pessimistic about reaching an agreement with the U.S. The dollar and the safe-haven yen edged higher on Wednesday, but not much, as a lack of clarity on U.S.-China trade talks kept investors cautious. Ahead of the release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's last policy meeting at 1900 GMT, traders were again reading tea leaves on the trade negotiations' progress. More upbeat reports hinting that talks were getting down to nuts and bolts were offset by rising tension between the parties over Hong Kong. The U.S. Senate's approval of bills aimed at protecting human rights there drew a sharp rebuke from China. The United States and China have been locked in tit-for-tat tariff hikes that have dented the global economy. Hopes for progress on the dispute had risen overnight when Bloomberg reported that negotiations, which failed in May, would be considered a baseline in deciding what U.S. tariffs on China would be rolled back. However they were dashed by another warning form U.S. President Donald Trump of more tariffs if talks collapse and by China's stern response to the passage of two Hong Kong-related bills in the U.S. Senate. The proposals - which have not passed the House - would require the U.S. to annually certify the protest-wracked city retained enough autonomy to qualify for trade concessions, and ban exporting crowd-control munitions to Hong Kong police. China's foreign ministry spokesman called it a blatant interference in China's internal affairs, and said the U.S. faced "negative consequences" if it persisted. China cut its new benchmark lending rate on Wednesday, as widely expected, moving to drive down funding costs and shore up an economy hurt by slowing demand and trade tariffs. Elsewhere, the British pound extended an overnight drop after an inconclusive election debate between Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who leads in the polls, and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. The release of the Fed minutes from October are the next major scheduled event for markets, with investors looking for insight into the reasoning for last month's rate cut.
  • Oil prices steadied on Wednesday despite rising crude inventories and intensifying Sino-U.S. trade tensions. U.S. oil inventories rose sharply last week, according to a private survey from the American Petroleum Institute (API) released overnight. The API reported that crude inventories rose by about 6 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 15. Analysts are expecting that the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly inventory data, which is due later in the day, to show a fall of 0.7 million barrels in crude stocks for the week ended Nov. 15. Oil prices were under pressure and slumped as much as 3% before the release of the report as U.S. President Donald Trump warned to raise tariffs on Chinese goods even further if Beijing does not sign a phase one pact. Also weighing on prices was a Reuters report that said Russia is unlikely to agree to deeper cuts in oil output at a meeting with fellow exporters next month. However, it could commit to extend existing curbs to support Saudi Arabia, the reports said citing three sources. "The API data also showed U.S. inventories posted a rather robust increase last week, which if confirmed by the EIA report, we could see oil prices continue to slide," he said.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
20th November 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,478 1,494 1,500-1,520
Silver-XAG 17.30-17.60 17.80 18.10-18.50
Crude Oil 56.00-56.50 57.20 58.00-58.65
EURO/USD 1.1110 1.1175-1.1200 1.1230
GBP/USD 1.2990 1.3040-1.3100 1.3150
USD/JPY 109.30 110.00 110.70-111.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
20th November 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1470-1,459 1,452 1,442-1,438
Silver-XAG 16.75-16.25 15.90 15.50
Crude Oil 55.10-54.70 53.90 53.00-52.35
EURO/USD 1.1060-1.1030 1.0980 1.0930-1.0890
GBP/USD 1.2930-1.2840 1.2790 1.2710-1.2650
USD/JPY 108.50-107.80 107.00 106.50-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (20th November 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1475.28/oz and low of US$1464.72/oz. Gold up 0.077% at US$1472.35/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1479) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1470-1438 with risk below 1438, targeting 1478-1489 and 1500-1512. Sell below 1478-1512 keeping stop loss closing above 1512, targeting 1470-1459-1452 and 1442-1438.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1470-1,459
S2     1,452
S3     1,442-1,438
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,478
R2     1,494
R3     1,500-1,520

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

45.882

Buy
20-DMA   1483.50 Sell
50-DMA  

1491.72

Sell
100-DMA   1480.44 Sell
200-DMA   1395.591480.44 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   82.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.241 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$17.17/oz and low of US$16.95/oz. Silver settled up by 0.640% at US$17.12/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.15), breakage above will lead to 17.61. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.75-15.50 targeting 17.30-17.60-17.80 and 18.50-18.90; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.30-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.90-16.25 and 16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.75-16.25
S2     15.90
S3     15.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.30-17.60
R2     17.80
R3     18.10-18.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.313 Buy
20-DMA   17.41 Sell
50-DMA   17.56 Sell
100-DMA   17.20 Sell
200-DMA   16.14 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.179 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$57.16/bbl, intraday low of US$55.12/bbl and settled down by 3.113% to close at US$55.17/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 56.50-54.70 with risk daily closing below 54.70 and targeting 57.20-58.00-58.65 and 59.40-60.00. Sell below 57.00-60.00 with stop loss at 60.40; targeting 56.50-56.00 and 55.10-54.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     55.10-54.70
S2     53.90
S3     53.00-52.35

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     56.00-56.50
R2     57.20
R3     58.00-58.65

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.638 Sell
20-DMA   56.32 Buy
50-DMA   55.56 Buy
100-DMA   55.83 Buy
200-DMA   57.46 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.603 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Tuesday an intraday low of US$1.1061/EUR, high of US$1.1083/EUR and settled the day up by 0.058% to close at US$1.1077/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1060-1.1030
S2     1.0980
S3     1.0930-1.0890

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1110
R2     1.1175-1.1200
R3     1.1230

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.357 Buy
20-DMA   1.1076 Sell
50-DMA   1.1042 Sell
100-DMA   1.1089 Sell
200-DMA   1.1174 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   82.958 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2909/GBP, high of US$1.2969/GBP and settled the day down by 0.206% to close at US$1.2924/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2930-1.2840
S2     1.2790
S3     1.2710-1.2650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2990
R2     1.3040-1.3100
R3     1.3150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.878

Buy
20-DMA   1.2876 Buy
50-DMA   1.2619 Buy
100-DMA   1.2458 Sell
200-DMA   1.2700 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   85.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.006 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY108.44/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.83/USD and settled the day down by 0.126% at JPY108.53/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.30-110.70 with risk above 110.70 targeting 108.50-107.80-107.00 and 106.50-106.10. Long positions above 108.50-105.00 with targets of 108.70-109.30 and 110.00-110.70 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-107.80
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.30
R2     110.00
R3     110.70-111.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.122 Buy
20-DMA   108.75 Buy
50-DMA   108.08 Buy
100-DMA   107.65 Buy
200-DMA   109.01 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   69.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.324 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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