AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Global stock markets stumbled and the dollar gained on Wednesday after China blasted a U.S. Senate bill aimed at protecting human rights in Hong Kong, the latest obstacle to easing tensions in a prolonged Sino-U.S. trade war that has dented growth worldwide. Gold prices rose to their highest in nearly two weeks before paring gains, while the yield on Germany’s 10-year bond fell to a 2-1/2 week low as worries over U.S.-China trade talks once again swept world markets. The dollar edged higher as the worsening trade tensions overshadowed the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting meeting in October. A divided Fed decided to hit pause after it cut interest rates for a third time this year. The slide cooled a stock rally that has pushed the index up almost 20% so far this year and led to multiple record highs for Wall Street’s three main equity indices, the latest on Tuesday. While trade tensions have roiled markets, sparking at times volatile risk-on, risk-off sentiment, a deal may not be needed for equities to do well, Antonelli said. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the United States would raise tariffs on Chinese imports if a trade deal is not reached. China’s foreign ministry said the United States should stop interfering in Hong Kong and Chinese affairs. The U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday will attempt to quickly pass the bill the Senate approved, a spokesman for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told Reuters In Germany, the yield on the 10-year bund fell to as low as -0.384% DE10YT=RR, down 16 basis points from five-month highs hit earlier this month. Oil prices jumped as U.S. crude inventories rose less than expected and as Russia said it would keep cooperating with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to limit global supplies.
  • The U.S. dollar slipped on Thursday in Asia after the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Tensions between the U.S. and China rose following reports that U.S. President Donald Trump might sign a bill that supports Hong Kong protesters. China's foreign ministry spokesman called the decision a blatant interference in China's internal affairs, and said the U.S. faced "negative consequences" if it persisted. The news added to jitters after Trump reiterated that he would raise tariffs if phase one of a trade deal with China is not signed. Traders had hoped the deal would have been signed at a summit in Chile scheduled for mid-November, but the deadline was left in limbo after the conference was cancelled. CNBC reported earlier this week that Beijing is pessimistic about reaching an agreement with the U.S. Meanwhile, minutes released on Wednesday showed Fed officials agreed that the stance of policy “likely would remain” where it is “as long as incoming information about the economy did not result in a material reassessment of the economic outlook.” However, they also see “the downside risks surrounding the economic outlook as elevated, further underscoring the case for a rate cut” at the October meeting. They cited reduced business investment and exports resulting from “weakness in global growth and elevated uncertainty regarding trade developments.” The U.S. dollar was flat on Wednesday ahead of the expected release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and as tensions between Washington and Beijing rose. China took offense to the U.S. Senate passing legislation that backed Hong Kong protesters and would ban the export of items like tear gas and rubber bullets to the city's police force, as conflict between the two sides escalated this week. The news added to jitters after U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated that he would raise tariffs if phase one of a trade deal with China is not signed. Traders had hoped the deal would have been signed at a summit in Chile scheduled for mid-November, but the deadline was left in limbo after the conference was canceled. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to release the minutes from its October meeting, where it cut rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year.
  • Oil prices slipped on Thursday in Asia after jumping nearly 3% in the previous session. The gains overnight were largely due to a smaller-than-expected build in weekly U.S crude stockpiles. The Energy Information Administration reported that crude stockpiles rose by 1.38 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 15. The market was expecting a build of about 1.54 million barrels, according to forecasts compiled by Investing.com. Gasoline inventories rose by about 1.8 million barrels, versus analysts’ expectations for a rise of 870,000 barrels. Distillate stockpiles fell by about 1 million barrels, compared with forecasts for a decline of about 730,000 barrels. Concerns that a phase one Sino-U.S. trade deal might not be signed this year sent equities and other risk assets down today. Conflict between Washington and Beijing escalated once again after the U.S. chamber passed two bills to protect human rights in Hong Kong. Citing a source familiar with the matter, Bloomberg said U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to sign the bills. The signing of a partial trade deal was already in doubt after Trump said late last week that he did not agree to roll back existing tariffs on Chinese goods. Yesterday, the president threatened that he would raise the tariffs even higher. However, China’s chief negotiator said on Wednesday night that he was “cautiously optimistic” about reaching a phase one trade deal with the U.S. despite tensions over Hong Kong.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
21st November 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,478 1,494 1,500-1,520
Silver-XAG 17.30-17.60 17.80 18.10-18.50
Crude Oil 57.20 58.00-58.65 59.40
EURO/USD 1.1110 1.1175-1.1200 1.1230
GBP/USD 1.2990 1.3040-1.3100 1.3150
USD/JPY 109.30 110.00 110.70-111.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
21st November 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1470-1,459 1,452 1,478
Silver-XAG 16.75-16.25 15.90 15.50
Crude Oil 56.50-56.00 57.20 57.20
EURO/USD 1.1060-1.1030 1.0980 1.0930-1.0890
GBP/USD 1.2930-1.2840 1.2790 1.2990
USD/JPY 108.50-107.80 106.50-106.10 106.50-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (21st November 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1478.73/oz and low of US$1465.82/oz. Gold down 0.051% at US$1471.43/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1479) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1470-1438 with risk below 1438, targeting 1478-1489 and 1500-1512. Sell below 1478-1512 keeping stop loss closing above 1512, targeting 1470-1459-1452 and 1442-1438.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1470-1,459
S2     1,452
S3     1,478
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,478
R2     1,494
R3     1,500-1,520

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.882

Buy
20-DMA   1480.50 Sell
50-DMA  

1490.72

Sell
100-DMA   1481.44 Sell
200-DMA   1397.59 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   71.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -7.241 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$17.19/oz and low of US$17.01/oz. Silver settled up by 0.052% at US$17.13/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.15), breakage above will lead to 17.61. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.75-15.50 targeting 17.30-17.60-17.80 and 18.50-18.90; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.30-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.90-16.25 and 16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.75-16.25
S2     15.90
S3     15.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.30-17.60
R2     17.80
R3     18.10-18.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.313 Buy
20-DMA   17.41 Sell
50-DMA   17.56 Sell
100-DMA   17.20 Sell
200-DMA   16.14 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.179 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$57.32/bbl, intraday low of US$54.81/bbl and settled up by 3.281% to close at US$57.00/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 56.50-54.70 with risk daily closing below 54.70 and targeting 57.20-58.00-58.65 and 59.40-60.00. Sell below 57.00-60.00 with stop loss at 60.40; targeting 56.50-56.00 and 55.10-54.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     56.50-56.00
S2     57.20
S3     57.20

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     57.20
R2     58.00-58.65
R3     59.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.638 Sell
20-DMA   56.45 Buy
50-DMA   55.63 Buy
100-DMA   55.85 Buy
200-DMA   57.48 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   43.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.603 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1052/EUR, high of US$1.1080/EUR and settled the day down by 0.048% to close at US$1.1072/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1060-1.0850 with risk below 1.0900, targeting 1.1060-1.1110 and 1.1170-1.1200. Sell below 1.1110-1.1300 targeting 1.1070-1.0960 and 1.0860-1.0805 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1060-1.1030
S2     1.0980
S3     1.0930-1.0890

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1110
R2     1.1175-1.1200
R3     1.1230

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.357 Buy
20-DMA   1.1075 Sell
50-DMA   1.1042 Sell
100-DMA   1.1087 Sell
200-DMA   1.1173 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   84.958 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2886/GBP, high of US$1.2929/GBP and settled the day down by 0.206% to close at US$1.2922/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2990-1.3170 with targets at 1.2930-1.2840-1.2790 and 1.2710-1.2650 stop-loss should be below 1.3170. Buy above 1.2930-1.2600 with targets 1.2990-1.3040-1.3100 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2930-1.2840
S2     1.2790
S3     1.2990

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2990
R2     1.3040-1.3100
R3     1.3150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.878

Buy
20-DMA   1.2878 Buy
50-DMA   1.2667 Buy
100-DMA   1.2472 Sell
200-DMA   1.2701 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   59.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.006 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY108.33/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.73/USD and settled the day up by 0.126% at JPY108.59/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.30-110.70 with risk above 110.70 targeting 108.50-107.80-107.00 and 106.50-106.10. Long positions above 108.50-105.00 with targets of 108.70-109.30 and 110.00-110.70 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-107.80
S2     106.50-106.10
S3     106.50-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.30
R2     110.00
R3     110.70-111.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.122 Buy
20-DMA   108.75 Buy
50-DMA   108.08 Buy
100-DMA   107.65 Buy
200-DMA   109.01 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   69.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.324 Buy

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING