AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • A broad gauge of Asian equities made a slight recovery on Friday from three-week lows hit the previous day, with gains limited by investors’ uncertainty over chances of China and the United States striking a preliminary deal soon to end their trade war. Markets showed little reaction to President Xi Jinping’s reiteration on Friday that China wants to work out an initial trade agreement with the United States and has been trying to avoid a trade war, but it is not afraid to retaliate when necessary. The index had dropped as much as 1.4% on Thursday, taking it to its lowest level since Oct. 30, on worries that U.S. legislation on Hong Kong threatened to undermine trade talks between the world’s two largest economies Those concerns linger, with U.S. President Donald Trump expected to sign into law two bills backing protesters in Hong Kong after the U.S. House of Representatives voted 417 to 1 for the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act”, which the Senate had passed unanimously a day earlier. The losses, though, were tempered by China saying it was willing to work with the United States to resolve core trade concerns, and a report in the Wall Street Journal that China has invited top U.S. trade negotiators for a new round of face-to-face talks in Beijing.
  • Major currency pairs were little changed on Friday in Asia amid mixed messages on the Sino-U.S. trade progress. The Wall Street Journal reported that China has invited top U.S. trade officials including U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to Beijing for a new round of face-to-face negotiations. The report came one day after Reuters said a partial trade deal might not be signed this year. While officials from China hinted that Beijing and Washington hinted earlier this month that the two sides are close to signing a deal, U.S. President Donald Trump comments last week that said he did not agree to roll back existing tariffs dampened hopes of a quick trade deal. The dollar trod water on Friday as a week of mixed messages on the prospect of Sino-U.S. tariff rollbacks left traders on edge and currency markets paralyzed, ahead of the release of closely-watched manufacturing data. While the headlines tugged sentiment in all directions, the greenback was steady against the safe-haven Japanese yen at 108.63 yen per dollar, more or less where it began the week. Keeping hopes for a breakthrough in trade talks alive were comments from a Chinese commerce ministry spokesman, who said on Thursday that China will try hard to resolve the dispute. The Wall Street Journal also reported that top U.S. negotiators had been invited to Beijing for a new round of face-to-face talks, seen as a signal of progress. However, trade experts and people close to the White House told Reuters that negotiations could slide into next year, and there are concerns that U.S. legislation on Hong Kong could sour relations between the parties. China's yuan , which is highly sensitive to trade news, was stable at 7.0313 per dollar. The British pound absent any detailed news on the trade front, the next focus on Friday is on flash purchasing manager’s index prints due later in the day. Readings from Germany, the Eurozone, Britain and the United States later on Friday, will offer the latest insight into how the globe's battered manufacturing sector is faring.
  • Oil prices dropped on Friday in Asia despite news of likely extension of production cuts. The fall in oil prices came even after Reuters cited an OPEC source and reported that the cartel and its allies were likely to extend existing oil output cuts when they meet next month until mid-2020. OPEC is due to meet Dec. 5-6, the same time Saudi Arabia is set to announce the final pricing for the initial public offering of the state-owned Saudi Aramco, expected to be the world's largest IPO. Oil prices jumped almost 3% in the previous session after U.S. government data showed a slightly lower-than-expected build in weekly crude stockpiles. On the Sino-U.S. trade front, the Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He invited top U.S. trade negotiators, including U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, for a new round of face-to-face talks in Beijing. The Journal’s report said that officials in the U.S. were willing to meet with their Chinese counterparts. He noted that “external rumours” about the trade talks are not accurate, and noted that the two trade delegations remain in close communication. Earlier this week, Reuters said a phase one trade deal might not be signed before the end of this year. Oil prices pulled back from their highest levels in nearly two months on Friday amid continued uncertainty over whether the United States and China will be able to reach a partial trade deal that would lift some pressure on the global economy. That was more than enough to offset news of a likely extension of production cuts by major producers that drove prices higher in the previous session. China has invited top U.S. trade negotiators for a new round of face-to-face talks in Beijing amid continued efforts to strike at least a limited deal, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday citing unidentified sources. Prices had touched their highest since late September on Thursday after Reuters reported that the OPEC and Russia are likely to extend existing production cuts by another three months to mid-2020 when they meet on Dec. 5. Oil was also buoyed by comments from China's commerce ministry on Thursday that it will strive to reach an initial agreement with the United States to end the pair's long-running trade war, allaying fears that talks might be unraveling. However, the completion of a phase one deal could slide into next year. ews that last week saw the biggest drawdown in three months for U.S. crude stock stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma also underpinned prices earlier this week. Cushing is the delivery point for WTI futures. Elsewhere, traders are also keeping a keen eye on the impact on oil production at OPEC countries Iran and Iraq amid ongoing protests. Several major economies - the United States, France and Germany - will release manufacturing data later today which could impact the market, McCarthy said.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
22nd November 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,470-1,478 1,494 1,500-1,520
Silver-XAG 17.30-17.60 17.80 18.10-18.50
Crude Oil 58.65-59.40 60.00 60.60-61.00
EURO/USD 1.1110 1.1175-1.1200 1.1230
GBP/USD 1.2970 1.3040-1.3100 1.3150
USD/JPY 108.90-109.30 110.00 110.70-111.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
22nd November 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,459 1,452 1,470-1,478
Silver-XAG 16.75-16.25 15.90 15.50
Crude Oil 58.00-57.20 56.50 56.00-55.1058.00-57.20
EURO/USD 1.1060-1.1030 1.0980 1.0930-1.0890
GBP/USD 1.2900-1.2840 1.2790 1.2710-1.2650
USD/JPY 108.50-107.80 107.00 106.50-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (22nd November 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1475.58/oz and low of US$1462.32/oz. Gold down 0.570% at US$1464.22/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1479) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1459-1438 with risk below 1438, targeting 1478-1489 and 1500-1512. Sell below 1470-1512 keeping stop loss closing above 1512, targeting 1470-1459-1452 and 1442-1438.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,459
S2     1,452
S3     1,470-1,478
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,470-1,478
R2     1,494
R3     1,500-1,520

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.882

Buy
20-DMA   1478.50 Sell
50-DMA  

1490.72

Sell
100-DMA   1481.44 Sell
200-DMA   1397.59 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   48.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -7.241 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$17.18/oz and low of US$17.02/oz. Silver settled down by 0.442% at US$17.08/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.15), breakage above will lead to 17.61. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.15), breakage above will lead to 17.61. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.75-16.25
S2     15.90
S3     15.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.30-17.60
R2     17.80
R3     18.10-18.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.313 Buy
20-DMA   17.41 Sell
50-DMA   17.56 Sell
100-DMA   17.20 Sell
200-DMA   16.14 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.26816.14 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.179 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$58.60/bbl, intraday low of US$56.54/bbl and settled up by 2.272% to close at US$58.22/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 58.00-55.10 with risk daily closing below 54.70 and targeting 58.65-59.40 and 60.00-60.60-61.00. Sell below 58.65-61.00 with stop loss at 61.00; targeting 58.00-57.20-56.50 and 56.00-55.10

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     58.00-57.20
S2     56.50
S3     56.00-55.1058.00-57.20

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.65-59.40
R2     60.00
R3     60.60-61.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.638 Sell
20-DMA   56.52 Buy
50-DMA   55.66 Buy
100-DMA   55.86 Buy
200-DMA   57.48 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   43.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.603 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1051/EUR, high of US$1.1096/EUR and settled the day down by 0.127% to close at US$1.1057/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1060-1.0850 with risk below 1.0900, targeting 1.1060-1.1110 and 1.1170-1.1200. Sell below 1.1110-1.1300 targeting 1.1070-1.0960 and 1.0860-1.0805 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1060-1.1030
S2     1.0980
S3     1.0930-1.0890

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1110
R2     1.1175-1.1200
R3     1.1230

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.357 Buy
20-DMA   1.1075 Sell
50-DMA   1.1042 Sell
100-DMA   1.1087 Sell
200-DMA   1.1173 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   84.958 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2892/GBP, high of US$1.2969/GBP and settled the day down by 0.133% to close at US$1.2904/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2990-1.3170 with targets at 1.2930-1.2840-1.2790 and 1.2710-1.2650 stop-loss should be below 1.3170. Buy above 1.2930-1.2600 with targets 1.2990-1.3040-1.3100 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2900-1.2840
S2     1.2790
S3     1.2710-1.2650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2970
R2     1.3040-1.3100
R3     1.3150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.878

Buy
20-DMA   1.2878 Buy
50-DMA   1.2667 Buy
100-DMA   1.2472 Sell
200-DMA   1.2701 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   59.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.006 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY108.27/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.69/USD and settled the day up by 0.020% at JPY108.61/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.30-110.70 with risk above 110.70 targeting 108.50-107.80-107.00 and 106.50-106.10. Long positions above 108.50-105.00 with targets of 108.70-109.30 and 110.00-110.70 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-107.80
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.90-109.30
R2     110.00
R3     110.70-111.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.122 Buy
20-DMA   108.75 Buy
50-DMA   108.28 Buy
100-DMA   107.70 Buy
200-DMA   108.94 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   43.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.324 Buy

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