AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares staged a cautious rally on Monday as investors dared to hope for some progress in the endless Sino-U.S. trade dispute, while the outperformance of recent U.S. economic data gave the dollar a leg up on its peers. On Saturday, U.S. national security adviser Robert O’Brien said an initial trade agreement with China is still possible by the end of the year, though he warned Washington would not turn a blind eye to what happens in Hong Kong. The comments add to worries that a Chinese crackdown on anti-government protests in Hong Kong could further complicate the talks. Over the weekend, pro-democracy candidates in Hong Kong romped to a landslide and symbolic majority in district council elections in the embattled city. He noted six weeks had passed since the “phase one” deal was agreed in principle yet there was still no deal in place. Reuters reported an ambitious “phase two” trade deal was also looking less likely, according to U.S. and Beijing officials, lawmakers and trade experts. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Friday called on euro zone governments to strengthen domestic demand after a global trade war brought a decade of export-driven growth to an abrupt end. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks later on Monday and is expected to underline the steady outlook for rates given the better economic figures. The U.S. dollar was unchanged on Monday in Asia amid persistent uncertainty over Sino-U.S. trade talk progress. Reuters cited sources from the U.S. and China and reported that a phase two trade agreement is looking less likely as China and the U.S. are struggling to even reach a preliminary phase one deal. Reuters previously reported that the signing of a partial trade deal might slide into next year The news came after Chinese President Xi Jinping said last week that Beijing wants to work out an interim or 'phase one' trade pact but is not afraid to retaliate when necessary. U.S. President Donald Trump also said on Friday a trade accord with China is "potentially very close," before adding, "The question is whether or not I want to make it." The dollar rose in the previous session after data showed U.S. factory and services activity accelerated in November, bolstering the outlook for the economy. Despite the gain, the dollar was largely range-bound last week and inched up 0.3%. IHS Markit said its “flash” purchasing managers index for manufacturing rose to 52.2 in November from a final reading of 51.3 in October, while its preliminary services PMI increased to 51.6 this month from 50.6 last month. On the data front, U.S. consumer confidence data is due on Tuesday. Durable goods orders and a second reading on third quarter GDP will also be closely watched.
  • Persistent uncertainty over the prospect of a U.S.-China trade deal looks likely to keep currency traders from taking on any large directional positions ahead of the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Despite the shorter week, the U.S. economic calendar indicates that both manufacturing and consumption will be in the spotlight. Investors will be monitoring regional manufacturing PMIs for any signs of a slowdown in the factory sector. Consumer confidence data on Tuesday will precede Black Friday, both of which will give insights into the strength of consumer spending. Durable goods orders and a second reading on third quarter GDP will also be closely watched and in the euro zone, Friday’s preliminary inflation data will top the much-watch list. The U.S. dollar rose against a basket of currencies on Friday, after data showed U.S. factory and services activity accelerated in November, bolstering the outlook for the economy. IHS Markit said its “flash” purchasing managers index for manufacturing rose to 52.2 in November from a final reading of 51.3 in October, while its preliminary services PMI increased to 51.6 this month from 50.6 last month. The greenback received an additional boost from data showing that euro zone business growth almost stalled this month as activity in the bloc’s dominant services industry increased at a much weaker pace than expected and among manufacturers it contracted again. Despite Friday’s gains, the dollar has remained largely range-bound over the last few sessions. For the week, the dollar index was up 0.3%. The leaders of the U.S and China on Friday both underscored their desire to sign an initial trade deal and defuse a 16-month tariff war that has roiled financial markets and acted as a drag on global growth. But trade talks could flounder if U.S. President Donald Trump signs into law a bill supporting Hong Kong's pro-democracy protesters or if U.S. warships keep sailing near islands claimed by China in the South China Sea. Elsewhere, the British pound weakened on Friday, recording its biggest daily loss in nearly three weeks after PMI data showing British business suffering their deepest downturn since mid-2016, with caution rising before a Dec. 12 general election.
  • Oil prices rose on Monday as positive noises from Washington over the weekend rekindled hopes in global markets that the United States and China could soon sign an interim deal to end their bitter trade war. Monday's higher opening prices came after U.S. national security adviser Robert O'Brien said on Saturday that an initial trade agreement with China is still possible by the end of the year. This came a day after U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed a desire to sign an initial trade deal and defuse a 16-month tariff war that has lowered global growth - though Trump said he had yet to decide whether he wanted to finalize a deal while Xi said he would not be afraid to retaliate when necessary. A move by China to protect intellectual property was also providing a supportive atmosphere for the trade talks, McCarthy added. U.S. national security adviser O'Brien warned on Saturday that Washington would not turn a blind eye to what happens in Hong Kong, where demonstrators remain angry at what they see as Beijing meddling in freedoms promised to the ex-British colony when it returned to Chinese rule more than 20 years ago. Over the weekend, the city's democrats won a landslide and symbolic majority in district council elections. A potential supply cut by OPEC+ of three more months to mid-2020 when they meet over Dec. 5-6 could also push prices up. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets on Dec. 5 at its headquarters in Vienna, followed by talks with a group of other oil producers, lead by Russia, known as OPEC+.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
25th November 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,470-1,478 1,494 1,500-1,520
Silver-XAG 17.30-17.60 17.80 18.10-18.50
Crude Oil 58.65-59.40 60.00 60.60-61.00
EURO/USD 1.1060-1.1110 1.1175 1.1200-1.1230
GBP/USD 1.2900-1.2970 1.3040 1.3100-1.3150
USD/JPY 108.90-109.30 110.00 110.70-111.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
25th November 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,459 1,452 1,442-1,438
Silver-XAG 16.75-16.25 15.90 15.50
Crude Oil 57.80-57.20 56.50 56.00-55.10
EURO/USD 1.1030 1.0980 1.0930-1.0890
GBP/USD 1.2840 1.2790 1.2710-1.2650
USD/JPY 108.50-107.80 107.00 106.50-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (25th November 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1473.58/oz and low of US$1461.33/oz. Gold down 0.142% at US$1461.98/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1479) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1459-1438 with risk below 1438, targeting 1478-1489 and 1500-1512. Sell below 1470-1512 keeping stop loss closing above 1512, targeting 1470-1459-1452 and 1442-1438.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,459
S2     1,452
S3     1,442-1,438
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,470-1,478
R2     1,494
R3     1,500-1,520

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.882

Buy
20-DMA   1478.50 Sell
50-DMA  

1490.72

Sell
100-DMA   1481.44 Sell
200-DMA   1397.59 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   48.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -7.241 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on made its intraday high of US$17.22/oz and low of US$17.02/oz. settled down by 0.637% at US$16.97/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.15), breakage above will lead to 17.61. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.75-15.50 targeting 17.30-17.60-17.80 and 18.50-18.90; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.30-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.90-16.25 and 16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.75-16.25
S2     15.90
S3     15.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.30-17.60
R2     17.80
R3     18.10-18.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.313 Buy
20-DMA   17.41 Sell
50-DMA   17.56 Sell
100-DMA   17.20 Sell
200-DMA   16.14 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.179 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$58.66/bbl, intraday low of US$57.44/bbl and settled down by 0.651% to close at US$57.83/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 58.00-55.10 with risk daily closing below 54.70 and targeting 58.65-59.40 and 60.00-60.60-61.00. Sell below 58.65-61.00 with stop loss at 61.00; targeting 58.00-57.20-56.50 and 56.00-55.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.80-57.20
S2     56.50
S3     56.00-55.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.65-59.40
R2     60.00
R3     60.60-61.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.638 Sell
20-DMA   56.58 Buy
50-DMA   55.72 Buy
100-DMA   55.86 Buy
200-DMA   57.50 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.603 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Friday an intraday low of US$1.1013/EUR, high of US$1.1029/EUR and settled the day down by 0.338% to close at US$1.1025/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1030-1.0850 with risk below 1.0900, targeting 1.1060-1.1110 and 1.1170-1.1200. Sell below 1.1060-1.1300 targeting 1.1030-1.0960 and 1.0860-1.0805 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1030
S2     1.0980
S3     1.0930-1.0890

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1060-1.1110
R2     1.1175
R3     1.1200-1.1230

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.357 Buy
20-DMA   1.1067 Sell
50-DMA   1.1041 Sell
100-DMA   1.1083 Sell
200-DMA   1.1170 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   24.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2822/GBP, high of US$1.2927/GBP and settled the day down by 0.548% to close at US$1.2834/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2900-1.3170 with targets at 1.2840-1.2790 and 1.2710-1.2650 stop-loss should be below 1.3170. Buy above 1.2840-1.2600 with targets 1.2900-1.2970-1.3040 and 1.3100-1.3150 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2840
S2     1.2790
S3     1.2710-1.2650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2900-1.2970
R2     1.3040
R3     1.3100-1.3150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.878

Buy
20-DMA   1.2878 Buy
50-DMA   1.2682 Buy
100-DMA   1.2478 Sell
200-DMA   1.2701 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   20.191 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0049 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY108.47/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.72/USD and settled the day up by 0.009% at JPY108.62/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.90-110.70 with risk above 110.70 targeting 108.50-107.80-107.00 and 106.50-106.10. Long positions above 108.50-105.00 with targets of 108.70-109.30 and 110.00-110.70 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-107.80
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.90-109.30
R2     110.00
R3     110.70-111.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.367 Buy
20-DMA   108.75 Buy
50-DMA   108.29 Buy
100-DMA   107.70 Buy
200-DMA   108.94 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   57.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0988 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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