AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks rose on Tuesday, bolstered by Wall Street’s record closing highs and signs of new momentum in Beijing’s and Washington’s efforts to end their long and acrimonious trade dispute. Shares in the region extended gains on Tuesday after Beijing said Liu He, China’s Vice premier and chief trade negotiator, held a call with his U.S. counterparts and that both sides reached consensus on solving relevant problems. That followed positive headlines out of China and the United States on Monday, which had helped bolster confidence. The yen fell to a two-week low versus the dollar, while the Swiss franc traded near a six-week low against the greenback as the optimistic tone sapped demand for safe-haven currencies. Traders pointed to China’s decision to increase punishments for intellectual property rights violations as a fresh concession to the United States in the drawn-out and volatile negotiations. Investors were also encouraged by positive comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Chinese state-owned media about the chance for an imminent trade deal Despite the recent optimism, a quick resolution to the U.S.-China trade war is far from certain given relations between the world’s two-largest economies have stalled many times before. The United States has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods in a 16-month long dispute over trade practices that the U.S. government says are unfair. China has responded in kind with its own tariffs on U.S. goods. If both sides cannot reach an agreement soon, the next important date to watch is Dec. 15, when Washington is scheduled to impose even more tariffs on Chinese goods. The PBOC is stepping up efforts to roll out its own digital currency, partly to fend off potential threats from Facebook’s proposed digital currency, Libra.
  • The dollar held an upper hand against the yen on Tuesday as optimism on a trade deal between the United States and China dented the allure of the safe-haven unit while the British pound was supported by hopes of an end to a hung parliament. he U.S. dollar was mostly flat on Monday, as investors waited for possible rate cut guidance from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the day. Powell is expected to speak at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce annual dinner later in the day. Traders expect that he will underline the central bank’s decision to pause on monetary policy easing after cutting rates three times this year. Powell said in testimony to Congress last week that the effects of those cuts have yet to be felt. The greenback was also impacted by reports of possible trade progress between the U.S. and China, with investors waiting to see if a deal will be reached. The Chinese state-backed Global Times newspaper reported Monday that the two sides were “very close” to a deal on trade, which added to optimism from China’s announcement over the weekend that it plans to improve protection for intellectual property rights. Meanwhile sterling jumped after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised to bring a Brexit deal to parliament before Christmas. His Conservative Party leads in opinion polls ahead of the Dec. 12 election. EUR/USD was flat at 1.1020 after the German Ifo index showed that the euro bloc’s biggest economy is still in a recession. China's Global Times, a tabloid run by the ruling Communist Party's official People's Daily, said on Monday on its Twitter feed the two countries are very close to a "phase one" trade deal, discounting "negative" media reports. Last week, the Chinese government invited United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to Beijing for face-to-face talks, the Wall Street Journal reported. The euro softened to $1.1013 (EUR=), near one-week low of $1.10035 touched on Monday. Sterling traded at $1.2900 , supported by hopes that the ruling Conservatives could win a majority in the Dec. 12 election to end a hung parliament. Against the euro, the British unit stood at 85.365 pence per euro, near six-month high of 85.22 touched Monday last week. Overall, currency trading is slowing down ahead of U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.
  • Oil prices were steady on Tuesday, holding onto gains from the previous session, after positive comments from the United States and China kept alive hopes that the world's two largest economies are soon to agree an end their trade war. China and the United States are "moving closer to agreeing" on a "phase one" trade deal, the Global Times - a tabloid run by the Chinese Communist Party's official People's Daily - reported. Still, the Global Times report noted that Washington and Beijing had not agreed on specifics or the size of rollbacks of tariffs on Chinese goods. Beijing's insistence that Washington roll back the Trump administration's tariffs has been a major sticking point. On the supply side, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meets on Dec. 5 at its headquarters in Vienna, followed by talks with other oil producers, including Russia, that combined with the cartel make up the OPEC+ group. The broader producer group is widely expected to extend a supply cut to mid-2020.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
26th November 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,459-1,470 1,478 1,494-1,500
Silver-XAG 17.30-17.60 17.80 18.10-18.50
Crude Oil 58.65-59.40 60.00 60.60-61.00
EURO/USD 1.1060-1.1110 1.1175 1.1200-1.1230
GBP/USD 1.2900-1.2970 1.3040 1.3100-1.3150
USD/JPY 109.30 110.00 110.70-111.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
26th November 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,452 1,442-1,438 1,430
Silver-XAG 16.75-16.25 15.90 15.50
Crude Oil 57.80-57.20 56.50 56.00-55.10
EURO/USD 1.1010 1.0980 1.0930-1.0890
GBP/USD 1.2840 1.2790 1.2710-1.2650
USD/JPY 108.80-108.50 107.80 107.00-106.50

Intra-Day Strategy (26th November 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1462.09/oz and low of US$1454.01/oz. Gold down 0.400% at US$1455.00/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1459-1438 with risk below 1438, targeting 1478-1489 and 1500-1512. Sell below 1470-1512 keeping stop loss closing above 1512, targeting 1470-1459-1452 and 1442-1438.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,452
S2     1,442-1,438
S3     1,430
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,459-1,470
R2     1,478
R3     1,494-1,500

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

38.882

Buy
20-DMA   1474.97 Sell
50-DMA  

1488.23

Sell
100-DMA   1483.28 Sell
200-DMA   1399.26 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   15.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.241 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$16.98/oz and low of US$16.84/oz. settled down by 0.606% at US$16.86/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.15), breakage above will lead to 17.61. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.75-15.50 targeting 17.30-17.60-17.80 and 18.50-18.90; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.30-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.90-16.25 and 16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.75-16.25
S2     15.90
S3     15.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.30-17.60
R2     17.80
R3     18.10-18.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.313 Buy
20-DMA   17.41 Sell
50-DMA   17.56 Sell
100-DMA   17.20 Sell
200-DMA   16.14 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.179 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$58.08/bbl, intraday low of US$57.15/bbl and settled down by 0.126% to close at US$57.81/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 58.00-55.10 with risk daily closing below 54.70 and targeting 58.65-59.40 and 60.00-60.60-61.00. Sell below 58.65-61.00 with stop loss at 61.00; targeting 58.00-57.20-56.50 and 56.00-55.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.80-57.20
S2     56.50
S3     56.00-55.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.65-59.40
R2     60.00
R3     60.60-61.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.638 Sell
20-DMA   56.81 Buy
50-DMA   55.63 Buy
100-DMA   55.86 Buy
200-DMA   57.52 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.634 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Monday an intraday low of US$1.1002/EUR, high of US$1.1031/EUR and settled the day down by 0.037% to close at US$1.10112/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1030-1.0850 with risk below 1.0900, targeting 1.1060-1.1110 and 1.1170-1.1200. Sell below 1.1060-1.1300 targeting 1.1030-1.0960 and 1.0860-1.0805 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1010
S2     1.0980
S3     1.0930-1.0890

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1060-1.1110
R2     1.1175
R3     1.1200-1.1230

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.357 Buy
20-DMA   1.1067 Sell
50-DMA   1.1041 Sell
100-DMA   1.1083 Sell
200-DMA   1.1170 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   24.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2840/GBP, high of US$1.2911/GBP and settled the day down by 0.334% to close at US$1.2900/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2900-1.3170 with targets at 1.2840-1.2790 and 1.2710-1.2650 stop-loss should be below 1.3170. Buy above 1.2840-1.2600 with targets 1.2900-1.2970-1.3040 and 1.3100-1.3150 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2840
S2     1.2790
S3     1.2710-1.2650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2900-1.2970
R2     1.3040
R3     1.3100-1.3150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.878

Buy
20-DMA   1.2878 Buy
50-DMA   1.2682 Buy
100-DMA   1.2478 Sell
200-DMA   1.2701 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   20.191 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0049 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY108.60/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.97/USD and settled the day up by 0.215% at JPY108.90/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.90-110.70 with risk above 110.70 targeting 108.50-107.80-107.00 and 106.50-106.10. Long positions above 108.50-105.00 with targets of 108.70-109.30 and 110.00-110.70 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.80-108.50
S2     107.80
S3     107.00-106.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.30
R2     110.00
R3     110.70-111.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.367 Buy
20-DMA   108.75 Buy
50-DMA   108.29 Buy
100-DMA   107.70 Buy
200-DMA   108.94 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   28.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0988 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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