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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares rose on Wednesday as upbeat signals from Sino-U.S. trade talks fanned hopes of an easing of tariff hostilities, while expectations the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low supported sentiment. Chinese blue-chip shares .CSI300, in contrast, dropped 0.39% after the data showed profits at China's industrial firms declined in annual terms for the third consecutive month in October, tracking sustained drops in producer prices and exports and underscoring slowing momentum in the world's second-largest economy. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the United States and China are close to agreement on the first phase of a trade deal after top negotiators from the two countries spoke by telephone and agreed to keep working on remaining issues. But while Trump said Washington was in the “final throes” of work on a trade deal with Beijing, he also underscored U.S. support for protesters in Hong Kong, seen as a sore point for Beijing. Trump’s comments came alongside softer-than-expected economic data from the United States, which showed a fourth straight monthly contraction in consumer confidence and an unexpected drop in new home sales in October. However, consumer confidence still remained at levels able to support steady consumer spending, and the housing data for September was revised up, with purchases touching more than 12-year highs. The broader market direction is “about the accommodative Fed and accommodative monetary policy and the fact that structurally the meta-trend is still lower in yields and rates,” he said. Some analysts said a fall in U.S. bond yields on Tuesday also pointed to more mechanical explanations beyond trade for rising equity prices. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday monetary policy was “well positioned” to support the strong U.S. labor market.
  • The U.S. dollar remained tepid on Tuesday with traders reluctant to make moves as U.S.-China trade talks dragged on. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said in a statement that the two countries had “reached consensus on properly resolving relevant issues” during a phone call Tuesday morning Beijing time, but did not provide any further details. The call was later confirmed by U.S. officials. But they also said that obstacles still remain Data from the Commerce Department showed that the goods trade deficit fell sharply in October due to reduced trade flows from the White House’s toughened stance on trade with China. Meanwhile, the pound slipped over worry that the Conservative Party’s lead in the December election is narrowing. A poll released on Tuesday showed that the Conservatives are at 43%, while Labour is at 32%. The Dec. 12 election is expected to be close, as Brexit looms as the main issue facing voters. Major currencies hardly budged on Wednesday as traders looked ahead to the final outcome of U.S.-China trade talks and a shortened holiday week in the United States. Trade is slowing down ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday in the U.S., before which some major players will have wind down most of their trade for the year. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday Washington was in the "final throes" of work on a deal that would defuse a 16-month trade war with Beijing. But he also underscored Washington's support for protesters in Hong Kong, a potential huge sore point with China. His remarks followed a telephone call on Tuesday by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin with Chinese Vice Premier Liu that was disclosed by China's Commerce Ministry. Although Trump's comments kept the bullish mood in the U.S. stock market alive, major currencies were on hold, with many market participants now hesitant to make big bets before they see the actual deal. One major sticking point has been the rollback of tariffs Trump has imposed, with Beijing demanding they be scrapped as a part of the deal. The United States has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods in a dispute over trade practices that the U.S. government says are unfair. China has responded in kind with its own tariffs on U.S. goods. If both sides cannot reach an agreement soon, the next important date to watch is Dec. 15, when Washington is scheduled to impose even more tariffs on Chinese goods. With markets preoccupied with the trade issues, soft U.S. consumer sentiment data hardly made any dent in the dollar. U.S. consumer confidence fell for a fourth straight month in November despite expectations of a small rebound, amid worries about current business conditions and employment prospects. Another report on Tuesday showed an unexpected drop in new home sales last month, but data for September was revised higher to show purchases hitting their highest level in over 12 years.
  • Oil fell on Wednesday after an industry report showed an unexpected build in U.S. crude inventories, but optimism around the signing of the first phase of a U.S.-China trade deal capped a deeper slide in prices. U.S. crude stocks rose by 3.6 mn barrels in the week to Nov. 22 to 449.6 mn, compared with analysts' expectations for a decrease of 418,000 barrels, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed. Official inventory data from the U.S. EIA is due later on Wednesday. The United States and China are close to agreement on the first phase of a trade deal, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday, after top negotiators from the two countries spoke by telephone and agreed to keep working on remaining issues. The trade dispute between Washington and Beijing, the world's two biggest economies, has clouded the outlook for future oil demand and even as a deal is yet to be finalized, any positive headline tends to support the market. The OPEC and its allies in a production cutting pact, a group known as OPEC+, will begin holding meetings on Dec. 4 in Vienna to examine its output policy. OPEC plans to meet on Dec. 5 and then a meeting of the OPEC+ group on Dec. 6 will make a final announcement on the future policy. The OPEC+ group agreed to cut oil output by 1.2 million barrels per day until March 2020 to boost prices. They are expected to extend the policy, possibly until June.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
27th November 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,462-1,470 1,478 1,494-1,500
Silver-XAG 17.80 17.80 18.10-18.50
Crude Oil 58.65-59.40 60.00 60.60-61.00
EURO/USD 1.1030-1.1110 1.1175 1.1200-1.1230
GBP/USD 1.2900-1.2970 1.3040 1.3100-1.3150
USD/JPY 109.30 110.00 110.70-111.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
27th November 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,452 1,442-1,438 1,430
Silver-XAG 16.75-16.25 15.90 15.50
Crude Oil 57.80-57.20 56.50 56.00-55.10
EURO/USD 1.0980 1.0930-1.0890 1.0850
GBP/USD 1.2790 1.2790 1.2900-1.2970
USD/JPY 108.80-108.50 107.80 107.00-106.50

Intra-Day Strategy (27th November 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1462.82/oz and low of US$1450.00/oz. Gold down 0.435% at US$1461.23/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1459-1438 with risk below 1438, targeting 1478-1489 and 1500-1512. Sell below 1470-1512 keeping stop loss closing above 1512, targeting 1470-1459-1452 and 1442-1438.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,452
S2     1,442-1,438
S3     1,430
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,462-1,470
R2     1,478
R3     1,494-1,500

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

1475.42

Buy
20-DMA   1475.42 Sell
50-DMA  

1488.58

Sell
100-DMA   1483.32 Sell
200-DMA   1399.26 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   23.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.241 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$17.10/oz and low of US$16.84/oz. settled down by 0.606% at US$17.05/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.15), breakage above will lead to 17.61. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.75-15.50 targeting 17.30-17.60-17.80 and 18.50-18.90; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.30-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.90-16.25 and 16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.75-16.25
S2     15.90
S3     15.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.80
R2     17.80
R3     18.10-18.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.313 Buy
20-DMA   17.41 Sell
50-DMA   17.56 Sell
100-DMA   17.20 Sell
200-DMA   16.14 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.179 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$58.50/bbl, intraday low of US$57.70/bbl and settled up by 0.689% to close at US$58.22/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 58.00-55.10 with risk daily closing below 54.70 and targeting 58.65-59.40 and 60.00-60.60-61.00. Sell below 58.65-61.00 with stop loss at 61.00; targeting 58.00-57.20-56.50 and 56.00-55.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.80-57.20
S2     56.50
S3     56.00-55.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.65-59.40
R2     60.00
R3     60.60-61.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.638 Sell
20-DMA   56.81 Buy
50-DMA   55.63 Buy
100-DMA   55.86 Buy
200-DMA   57.52 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.634 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Tuesday an intraday low of US$1.1006/EUR, high of US$1.1024/EUR and settled the day up by 0.0671% to close at US$1.1020/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0990-1.0850 with risk below 1.0900, targeting 1.1030-1.1060-1.1110 and 1.1170-1.1200. Sell below 1.1030-1.1300 targeting 1.1030-1.0960 and 1.0860-1.0805 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0980
S2     1.0930-1.0890
S3     1.0850

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1030-1.1110
R2     1.1175
R3     1.1200-1.1230

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.357 Buy
20-DMA   1.1055 Sell
50-DMA   1.1040 Sell
100-DMA   1.1079 Sell
200-DMA   1.1167 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   12.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2834/GBP, high of US$1.2902/GBP and settled the day down by 0.272% to close at US$1.2864/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2900-1.3170 with targets at 1.2840-1.2790 and 1.2710-1.2650 stop-loss should be below 1.3170. Buy above 1.2840-1.2600 with targets 1.2900-1.2970-1.3040 and 1.3100-1.3150 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2790
S2     1.2790
S3     1.2900-1.2970

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2900-1.2970
R2     1.3040
R3     1.3100-1.3150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.878

Buy
20-DMA   1.2878 Buy
50-DMA   1.2682 Buy
100-DMA   1.2478 Sell
200-DMA   1.2701 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   20.191 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0049 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY108.86/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.97/USD and settled the day up by 0.120% at JPY108.90/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.90-110.70 with risk above 110.70 targeting 108.50-107.80-107.00 and 106.50-106.10. Long positions above 108.50-105.00 with targets of 108.70-109.30 and 110.00-110.70 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.80-108.50
S2     107.80
S3     107.00-106.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.30
R2     110.00
R3     110.70-111.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.367 Buy
20-DMA   108.75 Buy
50-DMA   108.29 Buy
100-DMA   107.70 Buy
200-DMA   108.94 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   28.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0988 Buy

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