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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian share markets fell on Thursday as concerns that tensions over Hong Kong may stymie a U.S.-China trade deal cast a pall over Thanksgiving cheer from positive U.S. economic data. U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday signed into law legislation backing pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong. China’s Foreign Ministry promptly warned of unspecified “firm counter measures” in response and summoned the U.S. ambassador in Beijing. The next round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods is due to take effect on Dec. 15. Wall Street indexes minted fresh records overnight, buoyed by trade deal hopes and data showing U.S. economic growth picked up slightly in the third quarter, rather than slowing as first reported. Other data showed the number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits fell. There are signs the downturn in business investment may be drawing to a close and the U.S. Federal Reserve said the outlook was bright. The dollar and trade-exposed currencies were spurned for safe-havens such as the Japanese yen after Trump signed the Hong Kong bills into law. The laws are viewed as supportive for anti-government protesters in the city, since they threaten sanctions for human rights violations and seek to safeguard Hong Kong’s autonomy. But the move was denounced by China as interference in domestic affairs. The British pound bobbed higher after a model for pollsters YouGov, which accurately predicted the 2017 election, said Prime Minister Boris Johnson was on course to win a fat majority in parliament at the Dec. 12 election.
  • Prices of the safe-haven rose, while the U.S. dollar stayed near flat on Thursday in Asia amid worries of rising Sino-U.S. tensions. Overnight, U.S. President Donald Trump signed two bills that supports Hong Kong protestors into law, potentially complicating trade talks progress with Beijing. In response to the U.S. move, China's foreign ministry said it resolutely opposed the law and threatened to take firm counter-measures, calling any attempts to interfere in Hong Kong are “doomed to fail.” Chinese and Hong Kong stocks fell today following the news, while the yen traded modestly higher. Meanwhile, data showed Japan’s retail sales plunged 14.4% in October from a month earlier, which was more than the expected 10.4% decline. The Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product increased at a 2.1% annualized rate, compared to 1.9% in the first reading. In a separate report, durable goods gained 0.6% after falling 1.4% in the prior month. The safe-haven yen rose and risk-sensitive currencies fell on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump's formal endorsement of Hong Kong's anti-government protesters, seen as potentially derailing recent Sino-U.S. progress on trade. On Wednesday, Trump signed into law congressional legislation that supported the protesters despite angry objections from Beijing. That pushed the offshore yuan lower on worries it would worsen already fractious relations between the United States and China. The Swiss franc and gold also rose on Thursday as investors sought other safe harbors due to concerns about a potential increase in geopolitical risk. In response to the U.S. move, China's foreign ministry said it resolutely opposed the law and threatened to take firm counter-measures, complicating efforts to scale back a 16-month long trade war between the world's two-largest economies. The U.S. bill signed on Wednesday requires the State Department to certify, at least annually, that Hong Kong retains enough autonomy to justify favorable U.S. trading terms, which have helped it maintain its position as a global financial hub. The law also threatens sanctions for human rights violations in Hong Kong, which has been rocked by months of civil unrest in response to what protesters say is an erosion of freedoms since reverting to Chinese rule in 1997. Beijing has denied any undue influence and has blamed foreign governments for meddling in Hong Kong's affairs Many see the U.S. legislation as symbolic, but it has the potential, if implemented, to further rock relations between the United States and China. Washington's rebuke also comes as U.S. and Chinese negotiators are trying to reach an agreement to de-escalate a trade war, which would remove a huge headwind from the global economic outlook. The United States and China have imposed tariffs on each other's goods in a prolonged dispute over Chinese trade practices that the U.S. government says is unfair. The rise in safe havens undermined the dollar, which came into Asian trade on a high after revised data showed U.S. economic growth picked up slightly in the third quarter. Separate data showed new orders for key U.S.-made capital goods increased by the most in nine months in October and shipments rebounded.
  • Oil prices fell on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session after official data showed U.S. crude and gasoline stocks rose against expectations as production hit a record. Crude stockpiles in the United States swelled 1.6 million barrels last week as production hit a record high of 12.9 million barrels per day (bpd) and refinery runs slowed, the Energy Information Administration said. Analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast a drop of 418,000 barrels. More bearish was a 5.1 million-barrel rise in gasoline stocks, compared with forecasts for a 1.2 million-barrel gain. Oil prices had risen this week on expectations that China and the United States, the world's two biggest crude users, would soon sign a preliminary agreement, putting an end to their 16-month trade dispute. Forces based in eastern Libya said on Wednesday they had driven rival factions from the 70,000-bpd El Feel oilfield after attacking the area with air strikes, leading to production being halted and raising some worries about supply. In the United States, energy services company Baker Hughes reported that U.S. oil drillers reduced the number of drilling rigs for a record 12 months in a row. Drillers cut three oil rigs in the week to Nov. 27, bringing the count down to 668, lowest since April 2017, Baker Hughes said in its report released a day early due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
28th November 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,462-1,470 1,478 1,494-1,500
Silver-XAG 17.30-17.60 17.80 18.10-18.50
Crude Oil 58.65-59.40 60.00 60.60-61.00
EURO/USD 1.1030-1.1110 1.1175 1.1200-1.1230
GBP/USD -1.2970 1.3040 1.3100-1.3150
USD/JPY 109.50-110.00 110.70 111.30-111.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
28th November 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,452 1,442-1,438 1,430
Silver-XAG 16.75-16.25 15.90 15.50
Crude Oil 57.80-57.20 56.50 56.00-55.10
EURO/USD 1.0980 1.0930-1.0890 1.0850
GBP/USD 1.29001.2840 1.2790 1.2710-1.2650
USD/JPY 109.30-108.80 108.50 107.80-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (28th November 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1461.84/oz and low of US$1452.51/oz. Gold down 0.477% at US$1454.21/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1459-1438 with risk below 1438, targeting 1478-1489 and 1500-1512. Sell below 1470-1512 keeping stop loss closing above 1512, targeting 1470-1459-1452 and 1442-1438.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,452
S2     1,442-1,438
S3     1,430
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,462-1,470
R2     1,478
R3     1,494-1,500

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

41.882

Buy
20-DMA   1475.42 Sell
50-DMA  

1488.58

Sell
100-DMA   1483.32 Sell
200-DMA   1399.26 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   23.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.241 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$17.07/oz and low of US$16.91/oz. settled down by 0.785% at US$16.93/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.15), breakage above will lead to 17.61. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.75-15.50 targeting 17.30-17.60-17.80 and 18.50-18.90; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.30-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.90-16.25 and 16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.75-16.25
S2     15.90
S3     15.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.30-17.60
R2     17.80
R3     18.10-18.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.313 Buy
20-DMA   17.41 Sell
50-DMA   17.56 Sell
100-DMA   17.20 Sell
200-DMA   16.14 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.179 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wedneasday made an intra‐day high of US$58.16/bbl, intraday low of US$57.46/bbl and settled down by 0.295% to close at US$58.04/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 58.00-55.10 with risk daily closing below 54.70 and targeting 58.65-59.40 and 60.00-60.60-61.00. Sell below 58.65-61.00 with stop loss at 61.00; targeting 58.00-57.20-56.50 and 56.00-55.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.80-57.20
S2     56.50
S3     56.00-55.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.65-59.40
R2     60.00
R3     60.60-61.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.638 Sell
20-DMA   56.81 Buy
50-DMA   55.63 Buy
100-DMA   55.86 Buy
200-DMA   57.52 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.634 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.0991/EUR, high of US$1.1023/EUR and settled the day down by 0.192% to close at US$1.0998/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0990-1.0850 with risk below 1.0900, targeting 1.1030-1.1060-1.1110 and 1.1170-1.1200. Sell below 1.1030-1.1300 targeting 1.1030-1.0960 and 1.0860-1.0805 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0980
S2     1.0930-1.0890
S3     1.0850

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1030-1.1110
R2     1.1175
R3     1.1200-1.1230

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.357 Buy
20-DMA   1.1055 Sell
50-DMA   1.1040 Sell
100-DMA   1.1079 Sell
200-DMA   1.1167 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   12.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2826/GBP, high of US$1.2921/GBP and settled the day up by 0.432% to close at US$1.2920/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.270-1.3170 with targets at 1.2900-1.2840-1.2790 and 1.2710-1.2650 stop-loss should be below 1.3170. Buy above 1.2840-1.2600 with targets 1.2900-1.2970-1.3040 and 1.3100-1.3150 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.29001.2840
S2     1.2790
S3     1.2710-1.2650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     -1.2970
R2     1.3040
R3     1.3100-1.3150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.878

Buy
20-DMA   1.2878 Buy
50-DMA   1.2682 Buy
100-DMA   1.2478 Sell
200-DMA   1.2701 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   20.191 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0049 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY108.86/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.60/USD and settled the day up by 0.461% at JPY109.53/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.90-110.70 with risk above 110.70 targeting 108.50-107.80-107.00 and 106.50-106.10. Long positions above 108.50-105.00 with targets of 108.70-109.30 and 110.00-110.70 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.30-108.80
S2     108.50
S3     107.80-107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.50-110.00
R2     110.70
R3     111.30-111.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.367 Buy
20-DMA   108.86 Buy
50-DMA   107.73 Buy
100-DMA   107.73 Buy
200-DMA   108.20 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   88.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.206 Buy

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