AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar headed for its highest weekly finish against the safe-haven yen since May on Friday, as data showing the U.S. economy on a firm footing prompted investors to scale back rate-cut bets. Nerves persisted though, as other major currencies spent the week rangebound, navigating a blizzard of trade-war headlines that offered few clues as to when or how an overdue truce might be agreed between Washington and Beijing. On Friday, the dollar was steady at 109.51 Japanese yen , and if it holds there will post a 0.7% gain for the week and hit its highest weekly close since May 31. Overnight trade was light with U.S. desks closed for Thanksgiving. The British pound has been the week's other main beneficiary, adding half a percentage point as Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party has firmed in opinion polls ahead of the Dec. 12 election. The dollar's strength this week has drawn on hopes that the United States and China are indeed in the process of negotiating a ceasefire in their damaging tariff war, and strong U.S. economic data. China has vowed to impose "firm countermeasures" after Trump's approval of a bill backing Hong Kong's pro-democracy protesters on Wednesday, but is yet to indicate whether they would have any bearing on trade talks. U.S. growth picked up slightly in the third quarter, data showed on Wednesday, in contrast to other indicators showing a slowdown in global activity. The Fed also flagged an upbeat outlook amid signs of labor market strength and a possible turnaround in business investment That prompted a pullback on rate cut bets for this year and next, with the market now pricing in a 5% chance the Fed will hike rates next month and mostly expecting it to hold steady. The U.S. dollar stayed little changed on Friday in Asia following the release of strong economic data earlier this week. The U.S. Dollar Index last traded at 98.250 by 12:45 AM ET (04:45 GMT), down 0.04%. Data showed this week that the U.S. economy grew at a 2.1% annualized rate, compared to 1.9% in the first reading. The data was in contrast to other indicators showing a slowdown in global activity. In a separate report, durable goods gained 0.6% after falling 1.4% in the prior month. Sino-U.S. trade progress remained in focus after U.S. President Donald Trump approved two bills that backs Hong Kong’s anti-government protestors. While China has vowed to retaliate, it has not taken any action so far and it is unclear if that would have any bearing on trade talks. The next batch of American tariffs on Chinese goods are due to begin on Dec. 15. The U.S. equities and bond markets were closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving Holiday.
  • Asian shares slipped on Friday, knocking a global stock index off its path to hitting an all-time peak as investors turned cautious, fearing a new U.S. law backing Hong Kong protesters could torpedo efforts to end the U.S.-China trade war. Markets were sold off due to uncertainty over how U.S. markets will perceive the latest clash between Washington and Beijing over Hong Kong. China warned the United States on Thursday it would take “firm counter measures” in response to U.S. legislation backing anti-government protesters in Hong Kong. Anthony Chan, chief Asia investment strategist at Union Bancaire Privée in Hong Kong, said the market is still erring on the side of caution especially as the year-end approaches. But on the whole, investors are now betting that while the U.S. legislation spoils the mood, ultimately it remained in the interest of both Washington and Beijing to move forward with talks to get a trade deal. As trading in major currencies slumbers, their implied volatilities, key gauges of expected swings measured by their option prices, plumbed to new record lows this week. In response, the central bank said it would start a six-month program of foreign currency sales from Monday in a bid to stabilize the peso, earmarking $20 billion for the program.
  • Oil prices slipped on Friday in Asia but is set for a weekly gain ahead of a key OPEC+ meeting next week. Trading volume was reduced due to the U.S. Thanksgiving Holiday. A Bloomberg survey showed OPEC and its allies are expected to extend the current supply cut agreement. A deeper reduction is unlikely however, according to the survey. OPEC and its partners will meet in Vienna from Dec. 5 to 6 to decide on policy going forward. On the Sino-U.S. trade front, tensions intensified after the U.S. President Donald Trump signed two bills that back anti-government protesters in Hong Kong into law. China repeated its condemnation of the move and said it would take “firm countermeasures” in response, but has taken no action so far. The news casted doubt on the potential “phase one” trade deal between the two nations, which are the world’s biggest oil importers. Oil prices slipped on Friday in Asia but is set for a weekly gain ahead of a key OPEC+ meeting next week. Trading volume was reduced due to the U.S. Thanksgiving Holiday. A Bloomberg survey showed OPEC and its allies are expected to extend the current supply cut agreement. A deeper reduction is unlikely however, according to the survey. OPEC and its partners will meet in Vienna from Dec. 5 to 6 to decide on policy going forward.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
29th November 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,462-1,470 1,478 1,494-1,500
Silver-XAG 17.30-17.60 17.80 18.10-18.50
Crude Oil 58.65-59.40 60.00 60.60-61.00
EURO/USD 1.1030-1.1110 1.1175 1.1200-1.1230
GBP/USD 1.2970 1.3040 1.3100-1.3150
USD/JPY 109.50-110.00 110.70 111.30-111.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
29th November 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,452 1,442-1,438 1,430
Silver-XAG 16.75-16.25 15.90 15.50
Crude Oil 57.80-57.20 56.50 56.00-55.10
EURO/USD 1.0980 1.0930-1.0890 1.0850
GBP/USD 1.2900-1.2840 1.2790 1.2710-1.2650
USD/JPY 109.30-108.80 108.50 107.80-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (29th November 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1458.19/oz and low of US$1454.24/oz. Gold up 0.115% at US$1455.99/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1459-1438 with risk below 1438, targeting 1478-1489 and 1500-1512. Sell below 1470-1512 keeping stop loss closing above 1512, targeting 1470-1459-1452 and 1442-1438.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,452
S2     1,442-1,438
S3     1,430
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,462-1,470
R2     1,478
R3     1,494-1,500

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

41.882

Buy
20-DMA   1475.42 Sell
50-DMA  

1488.58

Sell
100-DMA   1483.32 Sell
200-DMA   1399.26 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   23.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.241 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$17.00/oz and low of US$16.90/oz. settled down by 0.07% at US$16.93/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.15), breakage above will lead to 17.61. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.75-15.50 targeting 17.30-17.60-17.80 and 18.50-18.90; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.30-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.90-16.25 and 16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.75-16.25
S2     15.90
S3     15.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.30-17.60
R2     17.80
R3     18.10-18.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.313 Buy
20-DMA   17.41 Sell
50-DMA   17.56 Sell
100-DMA   17.20 Sell
200-DMA   16.14 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.179 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$58.07/bbl, intraday low of US$57.58/bbl and settled down by 0.077% to close at US$58.01/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 58.00-55.10 with risk daily closing below 54.70 and targeting 58.65-59.40 and 60.00-60.60-61.00. Sell below 58.65-61.00 with stop loss at 61.00; targeting 58.00-57.20-56.50 and 56.00-55.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.80-57.20
S2     56.50
S3     56.00-55.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.65-59.40
R2     60.00
R3     60.60-61.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.638 Sell
20-DMA   56.81 Buy
50-DMA   55.63 Buy
100-DMA   55.86 Buy
200-DMA   57.52 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.634 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Thursday an intraday low of US$1.0998/EUR, high of US$1.1017/EUR and settled the day up by 0.089% to close at US$1.1006/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0990-1.0850 with risk below 1.0900, targeting 1.1030-1.1060-1.1110 and 1.1170-1.1200. Sell below 1.1030-1.1300 targeting 1.1030-1.0960 and 1.0860-1.0805 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0980
S2     1.0930-1.0890
S3     1.0850

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1030-1.1110
R2     1.1175
R3     1.1200-1.1230

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.357 Buy
20-DMA   1.1055 Sell
50-DMA   1.1040 Sell
100-DMA   1.1079 Sell
200-DMA   1.1167 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   12.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2898/GBP, high of US$1.2950/GBP and settled the day down by 0.088% to close at US$1.2909/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2715) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2970-1.3170 with targets at 1.2900-1.2840-1.2790 and 1.2710-1.2650 stop-loss should be below 1.3170. Buy above 1.2840-1.2600 with targets 1.2900-1.2970-1.3040 and 1.3100-1.3150 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2900-1.2840
S2     1.2790
S3     1.2710-1.2650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2970
R2     1.3040
R3     1.3100-1.3150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.878

Buy
20-DMA   1.2893 Buy
50-DMA   1.2715 Buy
100-DMA   1.2698 Buy
200-DMA   1.2698 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   69.191 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0049 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY109.32/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.55/USD and settled the day down by 0.0246% at JPY109.51/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.50-111.70 with risk above 111.90 targeting 109.30-108.50-107.80 and 107.00-106.50. Long positions above 109.30-107.00 with targets of 109.50-110.00-110.70 and 111.30-111.90 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.30-108.80
S2     108.50
S3     107.80-107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.50-110.00
R2     110.70
R3     111.30-111.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.367 Buy
20-DMA   108.93 Buy
50-DMA   108.41 Buy
100-DMA   107.75 Buy
200-DMA   108.91 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   92.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.206 Buy

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