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  • Asian shares extended losses on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said a trade deal with China might have to wait until after the 2020 presidential election, dashing hopes for a quick preliminary agreement. Fresh U.S. tariffs on Argentina and Brazil as well as threatened duties on French goods also darkened the mood, as a trade war that investors had hoped was easing a week ago now looks like ramping up. The U.S. House of Representatives’ passage of a bill proposing a stronger response to a crackdown on Muslims in China’s west also added yet another layer of tension, drawing swift condemnation from Beijing on Wednesday. Trump had told reporters in London that there is “no deadline” for an agreement with China to end the tit-for-tat tariff war, which the International Monetary Fund has said will push global growth to its slowest in a decade. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said if no substantial progress was made soon, another round of duties on Chinese imports including cell phones, laptops and toys would take effect on Dec. 15. No high-level meetings are scheduled and the parties still needed to sort out details about Chinese purchases of U.S. farm products and an enforcement mechanism, he told Reuters. That had put the brakes on a rally that had lifted the S&P 500 almost 10% since early October, when top diplomats from China and the United States met and outlined an initial agreement that Trump said he hoped could be sealed within weeks. In currency markets positive economic news from China’s services sector saved the yuan from a further thrashing, after it tumbled overnight. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc stood tall, while the Australian dollar AUD=D3 tumbled after softer-than-expected growth figures backed prospects of further rate cuts. However the trade-exposed New Zealand dollar mostly held on to gains won against the greenback after disappointing manufacturing data weakened the U.S. currency on Monday.
  • The dollar held steady in morning trade in Asia Wednesday morning after US President Donald Trump raised doubts that a trade deal with China will be signed before the end of next year. “In some ways, I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal, but they want to make a deal now and we will see whether or not the deal is going to be right,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday. He went on to add that he does not have a deadline for a deal. The election will be held in November 2020. The comments, which followed a decision by the US on Monday to put tariffs on aluminium and steel exports from Argentina and Brazil, added to the tension that already exists in global trade. The U.S. dollar was lower on Tuesday after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump sparked a flight to safer assets. Trump told reporters in London that a trade deal may need to wait until after the 2020 election, which is a stark contrast to reports over the last two weeks. He later said at a press conference with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that China wants to make a deal. The U.S. is expected to go through with tariff increases against China on Dec. 15, which could spark more disagreements between the two superpowers. Elsewhere, the pound rose after opinion polls showed UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the lead to win December’s election, which would secure a Brexit deal. GBP/USD gained 0.4% to 1.2980 and EUR/USD was flat at 1.1079. The South African rand extended declines against against the dollar after its economy contracted in the third quarter. USD/ZAR jumped 1.1% to 14.6931.
  • Oil gained on Wednesday ahead of meetings this week where OPEC and its allies are expected to extend production curbs to support the market, while industry data showing that U.S. crude stockpiles fell more than expected helped to lift prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies that include Russia - a group known as OPEC+ - are preparing to approve deeper crude output cuts this week, when they meet in Vienna, according to Iraq, the group's second-biggest producer Thamer Ghadhban, the oil minister of Iraq, told reporters on Tuesday in Vienna that "a deeper cut is being preferred by a number of key members" There is still some scepticism in the market over whether OPEC will cut output further, although it is accepted that the grouping is keen to support prices, with many analysts expecting an extension of existing cuts. OPEC members meet on Thursday and then on Friday the OPEC+ group meets. OPEC+ has been curbing supply since 2017 and is expected to keep the cuts in place to balance out record production in the United States. Crude oil inventories in the U.S. fell by more than expected last week, according to the industry group American Petroleum Institute (API). Stockpiles of crude oil fell by 3.7 million barrels, more than double expectations of a decline of 1.7 million barrels. Gasoline and distillate stocks increased, however, and the market will be looking for confirmation of the crude draw when official figures come out from the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration later on Wednesday. Keeping a lid on prices are the dwindling prospects of a trade deal between the United States and China. The trade dispute between the world's two biggest economies has weakened the global economy and held back oil demand growth. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday an agreement to end the trade dispute may have to be delayed until after the American presidential election in November 2020. Prices are likely to fall next year as oil supplies keep rising, outweighing any pick up in growth, Fitch Solutions said. It predicted Brent crude will drop to an average of $62 a barrels in 2020 and $58 in 2021, from a $64 average this year.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
4th December 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,494-1,500 1.509 1,520-1,536
Silver-XAG 17.30-17.60 17.80 18.10-18.50
Crude Oil 56.50 57.20 57.80--58.65
EURO/USD 1.1110 1.1175 1.1200-1.1230
GBP/USD 1.3040 1.3100-1.3150 1.3200
USD/JPY 109.00-109.50 110.00 110.70-111.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
4th December 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,478-1,470 1,462 1,452-1,442
Silver-XAG 16.75-16.25 15.90 15.50
Crude Oil 56.00-55.10 54.50 53.70-52.90
EURO/USD 1.1060-1.0980 1.0930 1.0890-1.0850
GBP/USD 1.2970-1.2900 1.2840 1.2790-1.2710
USD/JPY 108.80 108.50 107.80-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (4th December 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1481.72/oz and low of US$1459.79/oz. Gold up 1.027% at US$1477.16/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1478-1442 with risk below 1442, targeting 1489-1500-1509 and 1520-1536. Sell below 1489-1520 keeping stop loss closing above 1520, targeting 1470-1459-1452 and 1442-1438.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,478-1,470
S2     1,462
S3     1,452-1,442
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,494-1,500
R2     1.509
R3     1,520-1,536

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.882

Buy
20-DMA   1464.66 Sell
50-DMA  

1482.88

Sell
100-DMA   1486.44 Sell
200-DMA   1403.33 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   87.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.241 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$17.19/oz and low of US$16.85/oz. settled up by 0.520% at US$17.15/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.15), breakage above will lead to 17.61. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.75-15.50 targeting 17.30-17.60-17.80 and 18.50-18.90; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.30-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.90-16.25 and 16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.75-16.25
S2     15.90
S3     15.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.30-17.60
R2     17.80
R3     18.10-18.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.313 Buy
20-DMA   16.98 Sell
50-DMA   17.36 Sell
100-DMA   17.38 Sell
200-DMA   16.14 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   63.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.179 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$56.72/bbl, intraday low of US$55.30/bbl and settled up by 0.488% to close at US$56.17/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 55.10-52.90 with risk daily closing below 52.70 and targeting 56.00-56.50-57.20 and 57.80-58.65-59.40. Sell below 56.00-58.65 with stop loss at 59.00; targeting 55.10-54.50-53.70 and 52.90-52.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     56.00-55.10
S2     54.50
S3     53.70-52.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     56.50
R2     57.20
R3     57.80--58.65

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.638 Sell
20-DMA   57.10 Sell
50-DMA   55.63 Buy
100-DMA   55.86 Buy
200-DMA   57.52 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   22.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.307 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Tuesday an intraday low of US$1.1065/EUR, high of US$1.1092/EUR and settled the day up by 0.025% to close at US$1.1081/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1060-1.0850 with risk below 1.1060, targeting 1.1110-1.1170 and 1.1200-1.1230. Sell below 1.1110-1.1300 targeting 1.1060-1.1030-1.0960 and 1.0860-1.0805 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1060-1.0980
S2     1.0930
S3     1.0890-1.0850

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1110
R2     1.1175
R3     1.1200-1.1230

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.357 Buy
20-DMA   1.1038 Sell
50-DMA   1.1045 Sell
100-DMA   1.1069 Sell
200-DMA   1.1159 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2929/GBP, high of US$1.3010/GBP and settled the day up by 0.401% to close at US$1.2991/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2715) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2970-1.3170 with targets at 1.2900-1.2840-1.2790 and 1.2710-1.2650 stop-loss should be below 1.3170. Buy above 1.2840-1.2600 with targets 1.2900-1.2970-1.3040 and 1.3100-1.3150 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2970-1.2900
S2     1.2840
S3     1.2790-1.2710

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3040
R2     1.3100-1.3150
R3     1.3200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.878

Buy
20-DMA   1.2893 Buy
50-DMA   1.2715 Buy
100-DMA   1.2494 Buy
200-DMA   1.2698 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   69.191 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0049 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY108.47/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.20/USD and settled the day up by 0.315% at JPY108.62/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.50-111.70 with risk above 111.90 targeting 109.30-108.50-107.80 and 107.00-106.50. Long positions above 109.30-107.00 with targets of 109.50-110.00-110.70 and 111.30-111.90 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.80
S2     108.50
S3     107.80-107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.00-109.50
R2     110.00
R3     110.70-111.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.367 Buy
20-DMA   108.93 Buy
50-DMA   108.41 Buy
100-DMA   107.75 Buy
200-DMA   108.91 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   92.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.206 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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