AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks gained on Friday as investors took heart from U.S. President Donald Trump saying trade talks with China were “moving right along”, and U.S. oil prices sat near 2-1/2-month highs after OPEC and other producers agreed to cut output. Trump’s upbeat tone in comments on Thursday was enough to spark buying, despite a lack of agreement between Washington and Beijing over whether existing tariffs should be dropped as part of a preliminary deal to end their trade war. Investors were hoping that the two sides will reach a compromise to at least avoid their worst fears - that the United States will go ahead with its final batch of tariffs on about $156 billion of Chinese exports. Uncertainties over a deal have pushed some investors to the sidelines in recent sessions, while nervousness before the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls data later in the day could also curb market liquidity. Investors were also looking ahead to a Fed policy meeting on Dec. 1-11. A Reuters poll of economists and analysts showed the Fed would keep rates on hold at 1.50-1.75%. Oil prices retreated but hovered near recent peaks after major oil exporting countries agreed on Thursday to cut output by an extra 500,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2020, after a nearly six-hour meeting on Thursday. Details of the agreement and how the cuts will be distributed among producers still need to be ratified at a meeting in Vienna of OPEC and non-OPEC nations, otherwise known as OPEC+, on Friday. The agreement coincided with the initial public offering (IPO) of state oil firm Saudi Aramco, which was priced at the top of its range, raising $25.6 billion in the world’s biggest IPO. In the currency market, the British pound soared on growing confidence that next week’s election will give the Conservative Party the parliamentary majority it needs to deliver Brexit, ending near-term uncertainty.
  • The dollar nursed a week of losses on Friday, hit by nervousness on trade and mixed signals about the U.S. economy, while the British pound stood tall as bets firmed that Prime Minister Boris Johnson can win a commanding electoral victory. The safe havens of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc were in demand as a hedge against Sino-U.S. trade talks collapsing, and as investors fretted that U.S. jobs figures due later in the day may fail to deliver an expected rebound. Opinion polls suggest the ruling Conservatives will win an outright majority in the Dec. 12 election, removing some of the uncertainty around Britain's exit from the European Union that has weighed on the currency for years. Cable has rallied 10% since September lows. On the trade front, U.S. President Donald Trump remained upbeat overnight and said talks are "moving right along". Worries stem from a lack of similar enthusiasm from the Chinese side, after Chinese officials reiterated their stance that some U.S. tariffs must be rolled back for a deal. The focus on U.S. non-farm payrolls, due at 1330 GMT, comes after dismal data through the week that showed weak private payrolls, soft services activity and a shrinking manufacturing sector. The U.S. dollar fell on Thursday, as mixed trade signals kept investors at bay. Earlier in the day, China reiterated its expectations that tariffs should be lifted as part of a phase-one deal, after Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that U.S. officials expect a deal before the latest round of American tariffs takes effect on Dec. 15. The news was a complete turnaround from comments from U.S. President Donald Trump earlier in the week. Trump said Tuesday that a deal could be made after the 2020 election, sending markets reeling. Elsewhere, the pound continued to rise due to confidence that the Conservative Party will win the general election on Dec. 12.
  • Oil edged up in early Asia trade on Friday, with U.S. crude trading near a two-month high after OPEC agreed to increase output curbs by nearly 50 percent in early 2020, although the cartel stopped short of promising any further steps after March. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia - a grouping known as OPEC+ - have agreed to more output cuts to avert oversupply early next year as economic growth stagnates amid the U.S.-China trade war The agreement, which needs to be formally adopted later on Friday, will reduce 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of production, through tighter compliance and some adjustments. The group has been withholding 1.2 million bpd and the new amount represents about 1.7% of global oil output. The "decision seems to be more of a housekeeping move that will narrow the gap between their current target and the over-compliance we have seen from the alliance," said Edward Moya senior market analyst at OANDA. A panel of ministers representing OPEC and non-OPEC producers led by Russia recommended the cuts be made, according to Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak on Thursday Details need to be hammered out at an OPEC+ meeting that starts later on Friday in Vienna. Higher oil prices are also supporting the initial public offering of Saudia Arabia's state-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco, which said on Thursday it priced the shares on sale at the top of an indicated range. Foreign investors stayed away and the sale was restricted to Saudi individuals and reginal investors. OPEC+ agreed to cut an extra 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of production. However, the move failed to lift oil prices today as the cuts would likely only last through the first quarter of 2020. It is a much shorter timeframe than suggested by some OPEC ministers, who have called for extending cuts until June or December 2020. Details of the agreement will need to be hammered out at an OPEC+ meeting that starts later on Friday in Vienna. In other news, state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco priced its IPO at the top of its indicative range and raised $25.6 billion from the world’ biggest offering. Aramco set its IPO at 32 riyals ($8.52) per share, which is the top of its indicative range. The stocks will be listed on the Tadawul, Saudi Arabia’s local stock exchange, and begin trading on Dec. 12. Asian stocks gained on Friday as investors took heart from U.S. President Donald Trump saying trade talks with China were “moving right along”, and U.S. oil prices sat near 2-1/2-month highs after OPEC and other producers agreed to cut output. Trump’s upbeat tone in comments on Thursday was enough to spark buying, despite a lack of agreement between Washington and Beijing over whether existing tariffs should be dropped as part of a preliminary deal to end their trade war. Investors were hoping that the two sides will reach a compromise to at least avoid their worst fears - that the United States will go ahead with its final batch of tariffs on about $156 billion of Chinese exports. Uncertainties over a deal have pushed some investors to the sidelines in recent sessions, while nervousness before the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls data later in the day could also curb market liquidity. Investors were also looking ahead to a Fed policy meeting on Dec. 1-11. A Reuters poll of economists and analysts showed the Fed would keep rates on hold at 1.50-1.75%. Oil prices retreated but hovered near recent peaks after major oil exporting countries agreed on Thursday to cut output by an extra 500,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2020, after a nearly six-hour meeting on Thursday. Details of the agreement and how the cuts will be distributed among producers still need to be ratified at a meeting in Vienna of OPEC and non-OPEC nations, otherwise known as OPEC+, on Friday. The agreement coincided with the initial public offering (IPO) of state oil firm Saudi Aramco, which was priced at the top of its range, raising $25.6 billion in the world’s biggest IPO. In the currency market, the British pound soared on growing confidence that next week’s election will give the Conservative Party the parliamentary majority it needs to deliver Brexit, ending near-term uncertainty.
  • The dollar nursed a week of losses on Friday, hit by nervousness on trade and mixed signals about the U.S. economy, while the British pound stood tall as bets firmed that Prime Minister Boris Johnson can win a commanding electoral victory. The safe havens of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc were in demand as a hedge against Sino-U.S. trade talks collapsing, and as investors fretted that U.S. jobs figures due later in the day may fail to deliver an expected rebound. Opinion polls suggest the ruling Conservatives will win an outright majority in the Dec. 12 election, removing some of the uncertainty around Britain's exit from the European Union that has weighed on the currency for years. Cable has rallied 10% since September lows. On the trade front, U.S. President Donald Trump remained upbeat overnight and said talks are "moving right along". Worries stem from a lack of similar enthusiasm from the Chinese side, after Chinese officials reiterated their stance that some U.S. tariffs must be rolled back for a deal. The focus on U.S. non-farm payrolls, due at 1330 GMT, comes after dismal data through the week that showed weak private payrolls, soft services activity and a shrinking manufacturing sector. The U.S. dollar fell on Thursday, as mixed trade signals kept investors at bay. Earlier in the day, China reiterated its expectations that tariffs should be lifted as part of a phase-one deal, after Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that U.S. officials expect a deal before the latest round of American tariffs takes effect on Dec. 15. The news was a complete turnaround from comments from U.S. President Donald Trump earlier in the week. Trump said Tuesday that a deal could be made after the 2020 election, sending markets reeling. Elsewhere, the pound continued to rise due to confidence that the Conservative Party will win the general election on Dec. 12.
  • Oil edged up in early Asia trade on Friday, with U.S. crude trading near a two-month high after OPEC agreed to increase output curbs by nearly 50 percent in early 2020, although the cartel stopped short of promising any further steps after March. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia - a grouping known as OPEC+ - have agreed to more output cuts to avert oversupply early next year as economic growth stagnates amid the U.S.-China trade war The agreement, which needs to be formally adopted later on Friday, will reduce 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of production, through tighter compliance and some adjustments. The group has been withholding 1.2 million bpd and the new amount represents about 1.7% of global oil output. The "decision seems to be more of a housekeeping move that will narrow the gap between their current target and the over-compliance we have seen from the alliance," said Edward Moya senior market analyst at OANDA. A panel of ministers representing OPEC and non-OPEC producers led by Russia recommended the cuts be made, according to Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak on Thursday Details need to be hammered out at an OPEC+ meeting that starts later on Friday in Vienna. Higher oil prices are also supporting the initial public offering of Saudia Arabia's state-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco, which said on Thursday it priced the shares on sale at the top of an indicated range. Foreign investors stayed away and the sale was restricted to Saudi individuals and reginal investors. OPEC+ agreed to cut an extra 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of production. However, the move failed to lift oil prices today as the cuts would likely only last through the first quarter of 2020. It is a much shorter timeframe than suggested by some OPEC ministers, who have called for extending cuts until June or December 2020. Details of the agreement will need to be hammered out at an OPEC+ meeting that starts later on Friday in Vienna. In other news, state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco priced its IPO at the top of its indicative range and raised $25.6 billion from the world’ biggest offering. Aramco set its IPO at 32 riyals ($8.52) per share, which is the top of its indicative range. The stocks will be listed on the Tadawul, Saudi Arabia’s local stock exchange, and begin trading on Dec. 12.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
6th December 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,494-1,500 1,509 1,520-1,536
Silver-XAG 17.30-17.60 17.80 18.10-18.50
Crude Oil 58.65-59.00 60.30 60.70-61.25
EURO/USD 1.1110 1.1175 1.1200-1.1230
GBP/USD 1.3170-1.3200 1.3250 1.3300-1.3350
USD/JPY 109.00 109.50 110.00-110.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
6th December 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,474-1,468 1,462 1,452-1,442
Silver-XAG 16.75-16.25 15.90 15.50
Crude Oil 57.80-57.20 56.00 56.50-55.10
EURO/USD 1.1060-1.0980 1.0930 1.0890-1.0850
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3040 1.2970 1.2900-1.2840
USD/JPY 108.50 107.80-107.00 109.00

Intra-Day Strategy (6th December 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1483.97/oz and low of US$1472.83/oz. Gold up 0.0847% at US$1475.74/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1478-1442 with risk below 1442, targeting 1489-1500-1509 and 1520-1536. Sell below 1489-1520 keeping stop loss closing above 1520, targeting 1470-1459-1452 and 1442-1438.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,474-1,468
S2     1,462
S3     1,452-1,442
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,494-1,500
R2     1,509
R3     1,520-1,536

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.882

Buy
20-DMA   1464.66 Sell
50-DMA  

1482.88

Sell
100-DMA   1486.44 Sell
200-DMA   1403.33 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   87.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -8.241 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$17.00/oz and low of US$16.80/oz settled up by 0.611% at US$16.94/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.15), breakage above will lead to 17.61. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.75-15.50 targeting 17.30-17.60-17.80 and 18.50-18.90; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.30-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.90-16.25 and 16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.75-16.25
S2     15.90
S3     15.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.30-17.60
R2     17.80
R3     18.10-18.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.313 Buy
20-DMA   16.98 Sell
50-DMA   17.36 Sell
100-DMA   17.38 Sell
200-DMA   16.14 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   63.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.179 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$59.01/bbl, intraday low of US$58.01/bbl and settled down by 0.0738% to close at US$58.20/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 57.80-55.10 with risk daily closing below 55.10 and targeting 58.65-59.40 and 60.30-60.70-61.25. Sell below 58.65-61.25 with stop loss at 61.20; targeting 57.80-57.20-56.00 and 55.10-54.50-53.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.80-57.20
S2     56.00
S3     56.50-55.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.65-59.00
R2     60.30
R3     60.70-61.25

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.638 Sell
20-DMA   57.10 Sell
50-DMA   55.63 Buy
100-DMA   55.86 Buy
200-DMA   57.52 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   22.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.307 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1076/EUR, high of US$1.1107/EUR and settled the day up by 0.241% to close at US$1.1103/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1060-1.0850 with risk below 1.1060, targeting 1.1110-1.1170 and 1.1200-1.1230. Sell below 1.1110-1.1300 targeting 1.1060-1.1030-1.0960 and 1.0860-1.0805 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1060-1.0980
S2     1.0930
S3     1.0890-1.0850

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1110
R2     1.1175
R3     1.1200-1.1230

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.357 Buy
20-DMA   1.1038 Sell
50-DMA   1.1045 Sell
100-DMA   1.1069 Sell
200-DMA   1.1159 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3100/GBP, high of US$1.3165/GBP and settled the day up by 0.406% to close at US$1.3156/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2769) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3200-1.3350 with targets at 1.3100-1.3040-1.2900 and 1.2840-1.2790 stop-loss should be below 1.3170. Buy above 1.3100-1.2840 with targets 1.3200-1.3250 and 1.3300-1.3350 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3100-1.3040
S2     1.2970
S3     1.2900-1.2840

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3170-1.3200
R2     1.3250
R3     1.3300-1.3350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

72.940

Buy
20-DMA   1.2937 Buy
50-DMA   1.2785 Buy
100-DMA   1.2524 Buy
200-DMA   1.2694 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   95.191 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0049 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY108.64/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.42/USD and settled the day down by 0.0937% at JPY108.75/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.00-111.70 with risk above 111.90 targeting 108.80-108.50-107.80 and 107.00-106.50. Long positions above 108.80-107.00 with targets of 109.00-109.50-110.00 and 110.70-111.30 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50
S2     107.80-107.00
S3     109.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.00
R2     109.50
R3     110.00-110.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.367 Buy
20-DMA   108.87 Sell
50-DMA   108.52 Buy
100-DMA   107.79 Buy
200-DMA   108.85 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   27.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.206 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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