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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian equity markets ticked down on Tuesday, tracking Wall Street losses as investors fretted over a Dec. 15 deadline for the next round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports to take effect. Adding to the market uncertainty were comments from U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue on Monday that while President Donald Trump did not want to implement tariffs, he did want to see “movement” from China The deadline looms over a series of other significant events this week, with markets also awaiting the UK election on Thursday, and U.S. and euro zone central bank meetings. Investors have focused this year on the risks of the UK crashing out of the European Union without a deal and a sharp escalation in trade war tensions, said Frank Benzimra, head of equity strategy at Societe Generale. For its part, a Chinese official said on Monday Beijing hopes to make a trade deal with Washington as soon as possible before new U.S. tariffs are due to kick in this weekend. Adding pressure in China was new data showing that producer prices fell in annual terms for the fifth consecutive month in November while consumer prices spiked as food costs climbed, complicating efforts to boost demand as economic growth slows. Investors were also keeping an eye on the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is expected to keep rates unchanged at its two-day policy meeting, which ends Wednesday. With rates likely to stay put, analysts say investors will be closely watching policymakers’ forecasts for future U.S. economic growth. Following the Fed, investors are likely to scrutinize the first policy meeting led by new European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday for clues on where she will take the bank. While expectations of a Conservative Party victory in Thursday’s UK election have powered a rally in the pound, options markets indicate worries of a post-election retreat. Worries over trade continued to push oil prices lower. Data released on Sunday showed that Chinese exports declined for a fourth straight month, underscoring the impact of the trade war between the U.S. and China, which is in its 17th month.
  • Asian stocks drifted on Wednesday as Sino-U.S. trade talks showed little progress ahead of a weekend deadline for the imposition of additional U.S. tariffs, and the pound wobbled as opinion polls pointed to a tight British election on Thursday. Shanghai blue chips added 0.1%. U.S. stock futures were 0.1% lower. Faced with often conflicting reports, investors have begun to suspect that even if U.S. tariffs due to take effect on Sunday are delayed, it could take until 2020 before Washington and Beijing can agree a preliminary deal to wind back their trade war. In the absence of harder news on the trade front, investors’ focus was locked on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and its outlook for the economy due at 2000 GMT, as well as Britain’s election. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, with investors interested in whether the central bank changes its view of the economy and its 2% growth forecast for next year. U.S. inflation data due at 1330 GMT, expected to hold steady, may further reduce chances for rate cuts next year should it surprise on the upside. The pound recouped some losses during the day, but still sat well under the eight-month high struck overnight, when investors were more confident of a Conservative victory and expected it could end uncertainty over Britain’s exit from the European Union. While China and the United States have still to settle differences on trade, officials from Canada, Mexico and the United States signed a fresh overhaul of the quarter-century-old North American trade pact. A Wall Street Journal report that said U.S. and Chinese officials were preparing for a delay to the Dec. 15 round of tariffs knocked bonds but did not shift stocks since it suggested no resolution to the trade conflict. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said on Tuesday that U.S. President Donald Trump would make a decision soon on whether to enforce or suspend the tariffs. Elsewhere among currencies, the dollar nursed overnight losses against the euro after German economic sentiment sharply rose after an unexpected rebound in October exports. The Federal Reserve decides on interest rates on Wednesday, followed by a press briefing from Chairman Jerome Powell. The Fed’s Open Market Committee is expected to keep interest rates on hold later in the day. Sino-U.S. trade news returned to focus today, as the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg cited sources and said the U.S. might delay a planned tariff on Chinese goods. However, Larry Kudlow, U.S. President Donald Trump's top economic advisor, said he could not confirm the further tariffs on China would be delayed. Without a deal nor a delay to tariffs before the Dec. 15 deadline, the U.S. is slated to impose tariffs on another $156 billion on Chinese goods.
  • Oil prices traded lower on Wednesday in Asia after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that U.S. crude stockpiles rose last week. The API said crude inventories rose by 1.41 million for the week ended Dec. 6. Analysts expect that the Energy Information Administration will report a draw of 2.8 million barrels when it issues numbers tomorrow morning. The EIA numbers are due at 10:30 AM ET. Trade uncertainties were also said to be dragging oil prices down today. While the Wall Street Journal reported overnight that Washington might delay a planned tariff on Chinese goods that are set to kick in on Sunday, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow cautioned that the tariffs are still “on the table.” Meanwhile, White House adviser Peter Navarro also said he saw no indication that the tariff hike will be averted. U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are continuing to haggle over how to get Beijing to commit to massive purchases of U.S. farm products that President Donald Trump was insisting on for a near-term deal, the Journal reported. So far, China and the U.S. have yet to reach a phase one trade deal. Reuters reported earlier this month that the signing of the deal might slide into next year. The back-and-forth on the tariffs has weighed on oil prices and other risk assets this year. Weak global economic data, such as the weekend data that showed export from China that unexpectedly fell 1.1% in November, were also cited as headwinds.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
11th December 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,468-1,474 1,494 1,500-1.509
Silver-XAG 16.75-17.30 17.60 17.80-18.10
Crude Oil 59.00-59.70 60.30 60.70-61.25
EURO/USD 1.1110 1.1175 1.1200-1.1230
GBP/USD 1.3170-1.3200 1.3250 1.3300-1.3350
USD/JPY 109.00 109.50 110.00-110.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
11th December 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,458 1,452-1,442 1,436
Silver-XAG 16.50-15.90 15.50 14.90
Crude Oil 58.65-57.80 57.20 56.00-56.50
EURO/USD 1.1060-1.0980 1.0930 1.0890-1.0850
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3040 1.2970 1.2900-1.2840
USD/JPY 108.50 107.80-107.00 106.40

Intra-Day Strategy (11th December 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1469.09/oz and low of US$1460.01/oz. Gold up 0.184% at US$1464.09/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1458-1442 with risk below 1442, targeting 1468-1474-1489 and 1500-1509. Sell below 1468-1509 keeping stop loss closing above 1510, targeting 1458-1452 and 1442-1438.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,458
S2     1,452-1,442
S3     1,436
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,468-1,474
R2     1,494
R3     1,500-1.509

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

45.882

Buy
20-DMA   1465.44 Sell
50-DMA  

1480.19

Sell
100-DMA   1488.23 Sell
200-DMA   1407.42 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   17.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -4.241 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$16.70/oz and low of US$16.55/oz settled up by 0.440% at US$16.64/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.15), breakage above will lead to 17.61. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.25-14.90 targeting 16.75-17.30-17.60 and 17.80-18.50; stop breakage below 14.90. Sell below 16.75-19.30 with stop loss above 19.00; targeting 16.25-16.00 and 15.70-14.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.50-15.90
S2     15.50
S3     14.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     16.75-17.30
R2     17.60
R3     17.80-18.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.313 Buy
20-DMA   16.93 Sell
50-DMA   17.31 Sell
100-DMA   17.39 Sell
200-DMA   16.22 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   13.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.170 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$59.40/bbl, intraday low of US$58.44/bbl and settled down by 0.292% to close at US$58.95/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 58.65-56.10 with risk daily closing below 56.10 and targeting 59.00-59.70 and 60.30-60.70-61.25. Sell below 59.00-61.25 with stop loss at 61.20; targeting 58.50-57.80-57.20 and 56.00-55.10-54.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     58.65-57.80
S2     57.20
S3     56.00-56.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     59.00-59.70
R2     60.30
R3     60.70-61.25

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.638 Sell
20-DMA   57.38 Sell
50-DMA   55.73 Buy
100-DMA   55.56 Buy
200-DMA   57.56 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   81.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.307 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Tuesday an intraday low of US$1.1062/EUR, high of US$1.1077/EUR and settled the day up by 0.261% to close at US$1.1091/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1060-1.0850 with risk below 1.1060, targeting 1.1110-1.1170 and 1.1200-1.1230. Sell below 1.1110-1.1300 targeting 1.1060-1.1030-1.0960 and 1.0860-1.0805 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1060-1.0980
S2     1.0930
S3     1.0890-1.0850

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1110
R2     1.1175
R3     1.1200-1.1230

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.357 Buy
20-DMA   1.1045 Sell
50-DMA   1.1054 Sell
100-DMA   1.1064 Sell
200-DMA   1.1155 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   87.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3132/GBP, high of US$1.3179/GBP and settled the day up by 0.101% to close at US$1.3153/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2769) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3170-1.3350 with targets at 1.3100-1.3040-1.2900 and 1.2840-1.2790 stop-loss should be below 1.3170. Buy above 1.3100-1.2840 with targets 1.3200-1.3250 and 1.3300-1.3350 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3100-1.3040
S2     1.2970
S3     1.2900-1.2840

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3170-1.3200
R2     1.3250
R3     1.3300-1.3350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

72.940

Buy
20-DMA   1.2952 Buy
50-DMA   1.2803 Buy
100-DMA   1.2530 Buy
200-DMA   1.2694 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   94.191 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0049 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY108.50/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.76/USD and settled the day up by 0.149% at JPY108.71/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.00-111.70 with risk above 111.90 targeting 108.80-108.50-107.80 and 107.00-106.50. Long positions above 108.80-107.00 with targets of 109.00-109.50-110.00 and 110.70-111.30 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50
S2     107.80-107.00
S3     106.40

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.00
R2     109.50
R3     110.00-110.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.367 Buy
20-DMA   108.82 Sell
50-DMA   108.58 Buy
100-DMA   107.81 Buy
200-DMA   108.85 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   27.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.206 Buy

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