AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares and U.S. stock futures darted in and out of losses on Tuesday, as the holiday lull offset optimism that a U.S.-China trade deal will boost exports and corporate earnings. Blue-chip shares in China .CSI300 rose 0.29% after Premier Li Keqiang said on Monday the government was considering more measures to lower corporate financing costs. Sterling traded near a four-week low versus the euro and a three-week trough against the dollar on growing doubts over how Britain will navigate the transition period for its exit from the European Union. Oil prices held steady before data on U.S. crude inventories later on Tuesday, but there are signs that recent supply cuts may not last after Russia’s energy minister said oil producers could ease output restrictions in March. A de-escalation of a trade conflict between the world’s two-largest economies is a positive for companies that feed global supply chains, but some investors want to wait until next year to see how long the current thaw in Sino-U.S. relations lasts. Trading is expected to be subdued as many financial markets will start closing from Tuesday for the Christmas holidays. Equity investors got a rare double dose of positive news earlier this month when Washington and Beijing agreed a preliminary deal to avoid additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and a British general election gave the ruling Conservative Party a free hand to enact its Brexit agenda. However, the currency market shows some investors remain circumspect, because new problems with trade friction and Brexit could easily emerge next year. China’s government is considering broad-based and “targeted” cuts in banks’ reserve requirement ratio to lower financing costs for small firms, the country’s premier said on Monday, showing policymakers remain under pressure to counter an economic slowdown. Under the so-called Phase 1 trade deal, the United States suspended tariffs on Chinese goods that were scheduled to go into effect on Dec. 15 in exchange for a doubling of Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural goods.
  • The dollar held firm at the start of a holiday-thinned week on Monday, as U.S. data pointed to solid economic growth while the British pound bounced slightly after having suffered its biggest weekly fall in three years. A batch of economic data published on Friday showed the U.S. economy, already in its longest expansion in history, appears to have maintained the moderate pace of growth as the year ended, supported by a strong labor market. Gross domestic product increased at a 2.1% annualized rate, the Commerce Department said in its third estimate of third-quarter GDP. That was unrevised from November's estimate. Earlier this year, investors were spooked by fears over the possibility of a U.S. recession when the U.S. yield curve inverted, which has been historically one of the most reliable signs of a U.S. downturn. Separate data showed consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.4% last month as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and spent more on healthcare. That contrasted with an unexpected deterioration in German consumer sentiment. The dollar has been supported by optimism over the global economy since Washington and Beijing came to an interim trade agreement earlier this month. China said on Monday it would lower tariffs on products ranging from frozen pork to some type of semiconductors next year, as Beijing looks to boost imports amid a slowing economy and a trade war with the United States. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday the United States and China would "very shortly" sign their so-called Phase 1 trade pact. Currency speculators have cut their net short positions in the yen slightly in the week that ended last Tuesday after having increased bets against the currency constantly for a few months, data from the U.S. financial watchdog showed on Friday.
  • Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday in thin pre-Christmas trading after Russia's energy minister said cooperation with OPEC to support the market would continue and as analysts forecast a second weekly decline in U.S. crude inventories. OPEC, Russia and other producers that have linked up to curtail production and support prices will continue their cooperation as long as it is "effective and brings results," Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said in an interview on Monday. OPEC and other producers agreed in November to extend and deepen output curbs in place since 2017. The reduction of output could see as much as 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) taken off the market, or about 2% of global demand. Still, OPEC needs to do more to balance out the market on a sustainable basis, Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil market research at Rystad Energy said in a note. U.S. producers have been happy to fill any gaps in the market, pumping ever greater amounts of crude to reach a record high of around 13 million bpd in November That has helped swell inventories, which have been stubbornly resistant to drawdowns. U.S. stocks are up around 1% this year. Crude stocks are, however, expected to have fallen by about 1.8 million barrels last week, a second week of declines, according to a preliminary Reuters poll. Still, gasoline stocks are expected to have risen for a seventh week in a row and distillate inventories are forecast to have gained for a fifth consecutive week. In November, OPEC and other producers agreed to extend and deepen output curbs that have been in place since 2017. The cut in output could see as much as 2.1 million bpd taken off the market, which is around 2% of global demand. U.S. producers have been meeting the gaps in the market by pumping larger amounts of crude. It reaching a record high of around 13 million bpd in November. That has pumped up inventories, which have been largely resistant to drawdowns. U.S. stocks are up around 1% this year. A preliminary Reuters poll expects crude stocks to have fallen by about 1.8 million barrels last week, a second week of declines. But gasoline stocks are expected to have gone up for a seventh week in a row. Distillate inventories are also expected to rise for a fifth consecutive week.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
24th December 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,494 1,500 1.509-1520
Silver-XAG 17.60-18.00 18.40 18.70-19.00
Crude Oil 60.50-60.90 61.40 62.00-62.60
EURO/USD 1.1150-1.1200 1.1230 1.1280-1.1350
GBP/USD 1.3010-1.3060 1.3100 1.3200-1.3250
USD/JPY 109.50-110.00 110.70 111.50-111.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
24th December 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,486-1,478 1,468 1,458-1,452
Silver-XAG 17.45-17.00 16.50 15.90-15.50
Crude Oil 59.70 59.00-58.65 58.00
EURO/USD 1.1080-1.1060 1.0980 1.0930-1.0890
GBP/USD 1.2930-1.2850 1.2770 1.2690-1.2610
USD/JPY 109.00 108.50 107.80-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (24th December 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1486.08/oz and low of US$1477.46/oz. Gold up 0.488% at US$1485.32/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1486-1452 with risk below 1452, targeting 1494-1500 and 1509-1520. Sell below 1494-1520 keeping stop loss closing above 1520, targeting 1486-1478-1468 and 1458- 1452.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,486-1,478
S2     1,468
S3     1,458-1,452
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,494
R2     1,500
R3     1.509-1520

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.882

Buy
20-DMA   1471.37 Sell
50-DMA  

1477.10

Sell
100-DMA   1492.14 Sell
200-DMA   1415.62 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   88.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.550 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$17.44/oz and low of US$17.15/oz settled up by 1.533% at US$17.41/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.15), breakage above will lead to 17.61. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.00-14.90 targeting 17.45-17.80 and 18.10-18.50; stop breakage below 14.90. Sell below 17.45-19.30 with stop loss above 19.30; targeting 17.00-16.25-16.00 and 15.70-14.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.45-17.00
S2     16.50
S3     15.90-15.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.60-18.00
R2     18.40
R3     18.70-19.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.313 Buy
20-DMA   16.90 Buy
50-DMA   17.22 Sell
100-DMA   17.42 Sell
200-DMA   16.28 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.113 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$60.68/bbl, intraday low of US$60.03/bbl and settled up by 0.414% to close at US$60.54/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 59.70-56.10 with risk daily closing below 56.10 and targeting 60.50-60.90-61.45 and 61.90- 62.50. Sell below 60.50-63.10 with stop loss at 63.20; targeting 59.70-59.00 and 58.50-58.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     59.70
S2     59.00-58.65
S3     58.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     60.50-60.90
R2     61.40
R3     62.00-62.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.538 Sell
20-DMA   58.86 Buy
50-DMA   57.24 Buy
100-DMA   56.25 Buy
200-DMA   57.70 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   38.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.995 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1069/EUR, high of US$1.1095/EUR and settled the day up by 0.0749% to close at US$1.1088/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1080-1.0890 with risk below 1.0890, targeting 1.1150-1.1200-1.1230 and 1.1230-1.1280-1.1350. Sell below 1.1150-1.1350 targeting 1.1110-1.1060-1.1030 and 1.0960-1.0860 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1080-1.1060
S2     1.0980
S3     1.0930-1.0890

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1150-1.1200
R2     1.1230
R3     1.1280-1.1350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.357 Buy
20-DMA   1.1083 Buy
50-DMA   1.1081 Buy
100-DMA   1.1062 Buy
200-DMA   1.1145 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   19.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2904/GBP, high of US$1.3031/GBP and settled the day down by 0.493% to close at US$1.2934/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2769) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3100-1.3350 with targets at 1.3060-1.3010-1.2930 and 1.2850-1.2770 stop-loss should be below 1.3705. Buy above 1.3060-1.3200 with targets 1.3400-1.3510-1.3590 and 1.3630-1.3705 with stop loss closing below 1.3100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2930-1.2850
S2     1.2770
S3     1.2690-1.2610

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3010-1.3060
R2     1.3100
R3     1.3200-1.3250

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.940

Buy
20-DMA   1.3074 Buy
50-DMA   1.2958 Buy
100-DMA   1.2624 Buy
200-DMA   1.2690 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   7.191 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0012 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY109.33/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.53/USD and settled the day down by 0.0155% at JPY109.38/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.50-111.70 with risk above 111.90 targeting 109.00-108.50-107.80 and 107.00-106.50. Long positions above 109.10-107.00 with targets of 109.50-110.00 and 110.70-111.30 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.00
S2     108.50
S3     107.80-107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.50-110.00
R2     110.70
R3     111.50-111.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.367 Buy
20-DMA   109.14 Sell
50-DMA   108.89 Buy
100-DMA   107.96 Buy
200-DMA   108.71 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   45.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.184 Buy

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