AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar dipped to a near three-week low against the yen in thin year-end volume on Tuesday as investors favored riskier assets, led by renewed optimism about global growth. On Friday, the index had suffered its biggest one-day fall since March, which left its gains for the year at under 0.6%, compared with returns of 4.4% in 2018. It is now on track for the smallest rise since 2013. Encouraging news on the Sino-U.S. trade deal boosted risk sentiment in currency markets overnight. The White House's trade adviser, Peter Navarro, on Monday said the U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal would likely be signed in the next week, but said confirmation would come from President Donald Trump or the U.S. Trade Representative. Increased optimism about U.S.-China trade relations and an improved global growth outlook drove investors out of other safe-haven assets like Treasury bonds while the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars jumped to five-month highs. Investor appetite for risk also helped drive the euro (EUR=) to a 4-1/2-month high of $1.121 on Monday. It was last up 0.1% at $1.1209. Signs that the euro zone economy may be stabilizing have lifted the single currency in recent weeks. Sterling was last treading water at $1.3114 against the dollar after rising 2.8% so far this year. Concerns that Britain is headed for a disruptive "hard Brexit" at the end of 2020 have hurt the pound since mid-December. The U.S. dollar continued to retreat on Monday morning in Asia, with the greenback sliding for the third day in a row. The dollar lost ground against most currencies in the region with relatively thin trading ahead of the New Year Holiday on Wednesday. China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is due to be released on Tuesday followed on Thursday by the Caixin PMI, both of which will give some indication of the state of the Chinese economy. Over the weekend, the PBOC ordered the adoption of a new approach to pricing loans. Lenders will be expected to move towards a new loan prime rate (LPR) starting January 1. The LPR is set at 4.15% for a one-year loan, lower than the current benchmark of 4.35%. Meanwhile, markets continue to look forward to the signing of a phase one trade deal between the U.S. and China but are also looking for any spike in tensions in the Korean peninsula, particularly any missile tests in North Korea around the New Year.
  • Asian shares slipped on the last trading day of the decade, echoing falls on Wall Street, as investors locked in gains made since the United States and China reached a preliminary trade deal earlier this month. The White House’s trade adviser on Monday said the U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal would likely be signed in the next week, but said confirmation would come from President Donald Trump or the U.S. Trade Representative. While easing trade concerns and steps toward a resolution of Britain’s exit from the European Union have helped reduce some near-term market uncertainty, investors remain uneasy with a recession seen as inevitable in the new decade. Positive Chinese manufacturing data, which showed factory activity in China expanded for a second straight month in December, nudged China's blue-chip CSI300 index .CSI300 0.1% higher, extending the more than 33% gain seen this year. China’s modest gains built on Monday’s rally, which was driven by a combination of strong retail sales growth and hopes that a new benchmark for floating-rate loans could lower borrowing costs.
  • Oil prices held steady on the final day of the year on Tuesday, heading for their biggest annual rise since 2016, supported by a thaw in the prolonged U.S.-China trade dispute and supply cuts. Brent has gained about 24% in 2019 and WTI has risen roughly 36%. Both benchmarks are set for their biggest yearly gain in three years, backed by a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks and output cuts pledged by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies. The White House's trade adviser said on Monday that the U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal would likely be signed in the next week. Tensions remain high in the Middle East after U.S. air strikes on Sunday against the Katib Hezbollah militia group in Iraq and Syria. Operations resumed at Iraq's Nassiriya oilfield resumed on Monday after protesters briefly halted production. Looking ahead, U.S. crude inventories are expected to fall by about 3.2 million barrels in the week to Dec.27, heading for a third consecutive weekly fall, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. U.S. stockpiles fell by 5.5 million barrels in the week to Dec. 20. The figures will be released on Friday. Innes said traders would also closely watch the EIA's U.S. October crude production figures, set to come out later on Tuesday. The United States is on track to become a net petroleum exporter on an annual basis for the first time in 2020, with output expected to rise by 930,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 13.18 million bpd next year, the EIA said earlier this month. Brokers and analysts expect growing U.S. supplies to offset cuts from OPEC in 2020 amid sluggish worldwide demand, weighing on oil prices. However, tensions are high in the Middle East after U.S. air strikes on Sunday against the Katib Hezbollah militia group in Iraq and Syria. Operations resumed at Iraq's Nassiriya oilfield on Monday after brief halt in production due to protestors. Looking ahead, U.S. crude inventories are expected to fall by about 3.2 million barrels in the week to Dec 27. This would be a third consecutive weekly fall, as shown by a preliminary Reuters poll on Monday. U.S. stockpiles fell by 5.5 million barrels in the week to Dec. 20. Figures are expected on Friday.Innes said traders would also closely watch the EIA's U.S. October crude production figures, set to come out later on Tuesday. The United States is on track to become a net petroleum exporter on an annual basis for the first time in 2020. Its oil output is forecasted to rise by 930,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 13.18 million bpd next year, the EIA said earlier this month. Observers expect growing U.S. supplies to offset cuts from OPEC in 2020 amid weakening worldwide demand. This is expected to keep oil prices rangebound.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
31st December 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,530-1,536 1,546 1,557
Silver-XAG 18.25-18.50 18.70 19.00-19.60
Crude Oil 62.00-62.60 63.00 63.65-63.90
EURO/USD 1.1230 1.1280-1.1350 1.1400
GBP/USD 1.3150-1.3200 1.3250 1.3320-1.3420
USD/JPY 109.00-109.50 110.00 110.70-111.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
31st December 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,519-1,508 1,500 1,494-1,486
Silver-XAG 18.0017.60 17.00 16.50-16.00
Crude Oil 61.40-60.90 60.50 59.70-59.00
EURO/USD 1.1180-1.1110 1.1060 1.0980-1.0930
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3060 1.3010 1.2930-1.2850
USD/JPY 108.50 107.80-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (31st December 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1516.04/oz and low of US$1510.73/oz. Gold up 0.256% at US$1514.93/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1519-1486 with risk below 1478, targeting 1530-1538 and 1546-1557. Sell below 1530-1557 keeping stop loss closing above 1557, targeting 1519-1508-1500 and 1494-1486-1478.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,519-1,508
S2     1,500
S3     1,494-1,486
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,530-1,536
R2     1,546
R3     1,557

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

72.882

Buy
20-DMA   1475.00 Buy
50-DMA  

1478.59

Buy
100-DMA   1492.62 Buy
200-DMA   1418.72 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   93.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   9.185 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$17.94/oz and low of US$17.73/oz settled up by 0.731% at US$17.89/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.15), breakage above will lead to 17.61. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 18.00-14.90 targeting 18.25-18.50 and 18.70-19.10; stop breakage below 14.90. Sell below 18.25-19.60 with stop loss above 19.30; targeting 18.00-17.60-17.00 and 16.25-16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     18.0017.60
S2     17.00
S3     16.50-16.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     18.25-18.50
R2     18.70
R3     19.00-19.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   71.313 Buy
20-DMA   17.16 Buy
50-DMA   17.24 Buy
100-DMA   17.50 Buy
200-DMA   16.36 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   81.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.113 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US62.21/bbl, intraday low of US$60.96/bbl and settled down by 0.081% to close at US$61.49/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 61.40-58.60 with risk daily closing below 58.60 and targeting 61.90-62.50 and 63.00-63.65-63.90. Sell below 61.90-63.90 with stop loss at 64.00; targeting 61.40-60.90-59.70 and 59.00-58.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     61.40-60.90
S2     60.50
S3     59.70-59.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     62.00-62.60
R2     63.00
R3     63.65-63.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.369 Sell
20-DMA   59.25 Buy
50-DMA   57.58 Buy
100-DMA   56.44 Buy
200-DMA   57.72 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.147 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1170/EUR, high of US$1.1220/EUR and settled the day up by 0.223% to close at US$1.1197EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1180-1.0890 with risk below 1.0890, targeting 1.1230-1.1280 and 1.1350-1.1400. Sell below 1.1150-1.1350 targeting 1.1110-1.1060-1.1030 and 1.0960-1.0860 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1180-1.1110
S2     1.1060
S3     1.0980-1.0930

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1230
R2     1.1280-1.1350
R3     1.1400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.508 Buy
20-DMA   1.1115 Buy
50-DMA   1.1086 Buy
100-DMA   1.1060 Buy
200-DMA   1.1142 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   87.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3060/GBP, high of US$1.3149/GBP and settled the day up by 0.227% to close at US$1.3110/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2769) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3150-1.3420 with targets at 1.3060-1.3020-1.2930 and 1.2850-1.2770-1.2690 stop-loss should be below 1.3350. Buy above 1.33100-1.2770 with targets 1.3150-1.3200-1.3250 and 1.3320-1.3400 with stop loss closing below 1.2750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3100-1.3060
S2     1.3010
S3     1.2930-1.2850

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3150-1.3200
R2     1.3250
R3     1.3320-1.3420

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.018

Buy
20-DMA   1.3096 Sell
50-DMA   1.2968 Buy
100-DMA   1.2653 Buy
200-DMA   1.2688 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   83.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0027 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY108.76/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.47/USD and settled the day down by 0.490% at JPY108.87/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.50-111.70 with risk above 111.90 targeting 109.00-108.50-107.80 and 107.00-106.50. Long positions above 109.10-107.00 with targets of 109.50-110.00 and 110.70-111.30 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50
S2     107.80-107.00
S3    

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.00-109.50
R2     110.00
R3     110.70-111.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.367 Buy
20-DMA   109.14 Sell
50-DMA   108.89 Buy
100-DMA   107.96 Buy
200-DMA   108.71 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   45.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.184 Buy

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING