AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks had their best session in weeks on Thursday, as the United States and Iran backed away from the brink of conflict in the Middle East and investors reversed their flight to safety. U.S. President Donald Trump responded to an Iranian attack on U.S. forces with sanctions, not violence. Iran offered no immediate signal it would retaliate further over a Jan. 3 U.S. strike that killed a senior military commander. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Shanghai blue chips each added more than 1%, while Japanese stocks rose further, gaining 2% to their highest for the year so far. Investors quit the safe-haven Japanese yen, sending it sliding from a three-month high to a two-week low of 109.32 yen per dollar. Oil is cheaper than it was before the killing of the Iranian commander, Qassem Soleimani, in Baghdad, a strike that raised fears of an escalating regional conflict. Gold gave back sharp gains made on Wednesday but remains dearer than before Soleimani’s death, in an indication that investors’ fears have not completely evaporated. Iran fired missiles at military bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq on Wednesday in response to Soleimani’s killing. But Trump said no Americans were hurt and made no direct threats of a military response in an address to the nation on Wednesday. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had earlier said the strikes “concluded” Tehran’s response to the killing of Soleimani. Outside equities, Risk appetite was also evident in currency markets, with China’s trade-exposed yuan standing at a five-month high of 6.9281 per dollar and the Aussie creeping higher.
  • The U.S. dollar climbed Wednesday as risk appetite bounced back after President Donald Trump signaled de-escalation in conflict with Iran despite the Islamic Republic launching several attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq. In response to the attacks from Iran, Trump said the U.S. "will immediately impose additional punishing economic sanctions on the Iranian regime." The sanctions would remain in force until Iran changes its behavior, he added. Safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc fell, boosting the greenback as the decision from Trump to impose sanctions rather than signal a military response suggested he is seeking to de-escalate tensions. The dollar was also lifted by ongoing weakness in the euro following softer factory order data from Germany, the eurozone's largest economy. The pound, meanwhile, continued to lose ground against the greenback as U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson kept fears alive that Britain could leave the European Union without a deal at the end of year. Prime Minister Boris Johnson told European Commission Chief Ursula von der Leyen that the U.K will not extend its transition out of the European Union beyond December 2020. Leyen warned that "without an extension of the transition period beyond 2020," an agreement on a new trade deal would be a risk. The Japanese yen slipped on Thursday in Asia as safe-haven demand faded after U.S. President Donald Trump signalled de-escalation in conflict with Iran. Earlier this week, the Islamic Republic launched several rockets against U.S. airbases in Iraq in response to a U.S. airstrike that killed a top Iranian general last week. In response to the attacks from Iran, Trump said the U.S. "will immediately impose additional punishing economic sanctions on the Iranian regime." The sanctions would remain in force until Iran changes its behavior, he added. The decision from the president to opt for sanctions rather than military response sent safe-haven assets down, while stocks and other risk assets recovered. Prime Minister Boris Johnson told European Commission Chief Ursula von der Leyen that the U.K will not extend its transition out of the European Union beyond December 2020, raising fears that the U.K. could still exit the EU without a deal at the end of the year. Leyen warned that "without an extension of the transition period beyond 2020," an agreement on a new trade deal would be a risk.
  • Oil prices rebounded on Thurdsay in Asia after slumping as much as 5% overnight as U.S. President Donald Trump refrained from further military hostilities with Iran. While the president said the U.S. will hit Iran with heavier sanctions. But he did not speak of a counterattack, easing concerns of further escalation of conflict between the two nations. Last week, Iran’s top general Qasem Soleimani was killed in a U.S. airstrike in Baghdad.Iran has vowed to retaliate following the attack. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 1.2 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 3. The market was looking for a decline of 3.6 million barrels, according to analyst forecasts compiled by Investing.com. Gasoline inventories soared by 9.1 million barrels, compared with expectations for a rise of 2.7 million barrels, the EIA said. Distillate stockpiles climbed by 5.3 million barrels, versus forecasts for a build of 3.9 million barrels. Oil prices climbed on Thursday after a rocket attack on Baghdad triggered fresh concern over the potential for conflict in the Middle East, a day after markets were roiled by an Iranian missile strike on Iraqi bases hosting U.S. forces. But gains were muted as Washington and Tehran looked to defuse a crisis in the crude-producing region. They are now a little down on prices before the Jan. 3 killing of Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani in a U.S. drone attack that sparked the crisis. In Thursday's attack, two rockets fell on Baghdad's Green Zone, which houses foreign missions and government buildings. There were no casualties, and no immediate claim of responsibility, but the strike served as a reminder that the region remains on tenterhooks. Still, he said, "our view remains that in the absence of actual losses from conflict with Iran, the market will see mild downward pressure in Q1 on inventory builds." That pressure was evident on Thursday as a result of a surprise build in U.S. crude stockpiles last week Crude oil stocks were up by 1.2 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 3 to 431.1 million barrels, against analysts' forecasts in a Reuters poll for a 3.6 million-barrel drop. Meanwhile J.P. Morgan maintained its forecast for Brent to average $64.50 a barrel this year.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
9th January 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,556-1.564 1,571 1,578-1,584
Silver-XAG 18.00-18.25 18.50 18.70-19.00
Crude Oil 60.50-61.40 62.00 62.60-63.00
EURO/USD 1.1180-1.1230 1.1280 1.1350-1.1400
GBP/USD 1.3150 1.3200 1.3250-1.3320
USD/JPY 109.50 110.00-110.70 111.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
9th January 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,536 1.527 1,520-1,511
Silver-XAG 17.70-17.10 16.60 16.25-16.00
Crude Oil 59.00-58.60 57.80 56.90
EURO/USD 1.1110 1.1060 1.0980-1.0930
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3060 1.3010 1.2930-1.2850
USD/JPY 107.80 107.80 107.00-106.50

Intra-Day Strategy (9th January 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1611.25/oz and low of US$1552.11/oz. Gold down 1.184% at US$1556.19/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1536-1511 with risk below 1511, targeting 1557-1564-1571 and 1578-1584 and 1622-1630. Sell below 1550-1600 keeping stop loss closing above 1600, targeting 1536-1527 and 1519-1511.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,536
S2     1.527
S3     1,520-1,511
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,556-1.564
R2     1,571
R3     1,578-1,584

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

69.472

Buy
20-DMA   1508.64 Buy
50-DMA  

1485.52

Buy
100-DMA   1495.44 Buy
200-DMA   1427.31 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   22.161 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$18.84/oz and low of US$18.04/oz settled down by 1.605% at US$18.08/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (17.55), breakage above will lead to 17.61. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.70-16.00 targeting 18.00-18.50-18.70 and 19.10-19.65; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 18.00-20.10 with stop loss above 20.10; targeting 17.70-17.00 and 16.25-16.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.70-17.10
S2     16.60
S3     16.25-16.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     18.00-18.25
R2     18.50
R3     18.70-19.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.226 Buy
20-DMA   17.54 Buy
50-DMA   17.28 Buy
100-DMA   17.55 Buy
200-DMA   16.45 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   31.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.274 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US65.42/bbl, intraday low of US$58.99/bbl and settled down by 3.00% to close at US$59.79/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 59.00-56.90 with risk daily closing below 56.90 and targeting 60.50-61.40-62.00 and 62.60-63.00. Sell below 60.50-63.00 with stop loss at 63.00; targeting 59.00-58.00 and 57.80-56.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     59.00-58.60
S2     57.80
S3     56.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     60.50-61.40
R2     62.00
R3     62.60-63.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.971 Sell
20-DMA   60.78 Buy
50-DMA   58.57 Buy
100-DMA   56.93 Buy
200-DMA   57.78 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   20.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.778 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1101/EUR, high of US$1.1167/EUR and settled the day down by 0.421% to close at US$1.1104/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1110-1.0890 with risk below 1.0890, targeting 1.1180-1.1230-1.1280 and 1.1350-1.1400. Sell below 1.1180-1.1350 targeting 1.1110-1.1060-1.1030 and 1.0960-1.0860 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1110
S2     1.1060
S3     1.0980-1.0930

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1180-1.1230
R2     1.1280
R3     1.1350-1.1400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.742 Buy
20-DMA   1.1138 Buy
50-DMA   1.1092 Buy
100-DMA   1.1063 Buy
200-DMA   1.1140 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   44.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3079/GBP, high of US$1.3169/GBP and settled the day down by 0.192% to close at US$1.3094/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2769) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3150-1.3420 with targets at 1.3100-1.3060-1.3020 and 1.2930-1.2850 stop-loss should be below 1.3420. Buy above 1.3100-1.2750 with targets 1.3150-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3320 with stop loss closing below 1.2750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3100-1.3060
S2     1.3010
S3     1.2930-1.2850

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3150
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3250-1.3320

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.642

Buy
20-DMA   1.3117 Sell
50-DMA   1.3000 Buy
100-DMA   1.2717 Buy
200-DMA   1.2689 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   40.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0027 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY107.64/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.23/USD and settled the day up by 0.620% at JPY109.10/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.50-111.70 with risk above 111.70 targeting 109.00-108.50-107.80 and 107.00-106.50-106.00. Long positions above 107.80-105.70 with targets of 108.90-109.50-110.00 and 110.70-111.30 with stop below 105.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.80
S2     107.80
S3     107.00-106.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.50
R2     110.00-110.70
R3     111.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   85.402 Buy
20-DMA   109.08 Sell
50-DMA   108.93 Buy
100-DMA   108.23 Buy
200-DMA   108.62 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   85.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.121 Buy

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING