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Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged higher Thursday as better-than-expected U.S. retail sales suggested the consumer will continue to keep the economy on solid footing. The Commerce Department said that core retail sales rose 0.7% last month, topping economists’ forecast for a 0.5% rise. The retail sales control group – which has a larger impact on U.S. GDP – rose 0.5%, above expectations for a 0.4% rise. Some have warned, however, that the economy will need to be proped up by other sectors. As well as firmer retail sales, lower-than-expected jobless claims and stronger manufacturing data supported sentiment on the greenback. Elsewhere, sterling found its footing against the dollar, staying above the $1.30 handle. The pound wobbled earlier this week as weaker U.K. economic data strengthened calls for a Bank of England rate hike. Traders are expected to look to the purchasing managers' surveys on Jan. 24 for the first sign of how the U.K.'s economy performed following December's general election.
  • The dollar and the Chinese yuan remained steady a day after China and the U.S. signed a phase one trade deal aimed at easing tensions between the two largest economies in the world. The signing of the deal on Wednesday, Jan. 15, in the U.S. helped equities markets and lent some stability to currencies. The US Dollar Index Futures that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was slightly lower, down 0.02% to 97.30 by 8:30 PM ET (01:30 GMT). The index has remained strong after falling at the beginning of the year. China’s economy grew 6.1% through 2019, the lowest rate of growth since 1990, according to numbers released by the National Bureau of Statistics Friday morning. The growth rate is lower than market expectations of 6.2% but within the 6% to 6.5% the central government set in early 2019. Growth in the fourth quarter was 6%, unchanged from the previous quarter. The Friday data follows the release of monthly export and import numbers earlier in the week that showed exports rising in December for the first time in five months and import growth beating estimates. Exports from China rose 7.6% year on year in December while imports jumped 16.3%, the largest monthly jump in more than a year.
  • Gold prices rose on Friday in Asia amid skepticism about the U.S.-China trade deal.The two countries signed the phase one trade deal on Wednesday, however, there are still doubts whether the U.S. and China can consistently develop the relations. The phase one deal has been criticized for its loopholes. The deal says Beijing will increase purchases of the U.S. products and services by an additional $200 billion over the next two years. The pact halts new tariffs but the huge U.S. levies on $360 billion worth of Chinese products remain unchanged as well as the Chinese tariffs on over $100 billion U.S. products. Experts say the yellow metal prices may not slide further due to global growth risks.
  • Oil held its biggest gain in almost two weeks on optimism a less aggressive approach on trade from the U.S. will help revive growth. Washington and Beijing signed a phase-one trade deal on Wednesday, while the Senate passed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement a day later. However, that wasn’t enough to stop crude from heading for a second weekly decline after a big jump in American oil-product stockpiles highlighted weak demand. China pledged $52.4 billion in additional purchases of American energy over 2020 and 2021 in the agreement, although there was some skepticism in the market about whether it would be able to reach the target. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency warned in its monthly report that supplies from Iraq, the Middle East’s second-biggest producer, are potentially vulnerable due to rising political risks in the country and broader region. Oil prices were steady on Friday as investors braced for data expected to show China's economic growth last year slid to its slowest pace in 29 years, holding on to gains for now after Washington and Beijing inked a long-awaited trade deal. Still, prices are being held back after the International Energy Agency forecast that oil supply would exceed demand for crude from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, even if members are fully compliant in their agreement with Russia and other producers to curb output. The Paris-based International Energy Agency in a report forecast China’s oil demand would average 14.1 million barrels a day this year, compared with 13.6 million last year. “China was a source of worry, and concerns were that its demand would slow. But that doesn’t appear to have been the case,” Lynch said.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
17th January 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,556 1.564 1,571-1,578
Silver-XAG 18.00-18.25 18.50 18.70-19.
Crude Oil 58.60-59.00 60.00 60.80-61.40
EURO/USD 1.1180-1.1230 1.1280 1.1350-1.1400
GBP/USD 1.3100 1.3150 1.3200-1.3250
USD/JPY 110.70 111.20 112.00-112.40

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
17th January 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,542-1,536 1.527 1,520-1,511
Silver-XAG 17.70-17.10 16.60 18.00-18.25
Crude Oil 57.80-56.90 56.00 55.20-54.50
EURO/USD 1.1100-1.1060 1.0980 1.0930
GBP/USD 1.3060-1.2980 1.2930 1.2850-1.2800
USD/JPY 110.00-109.50 109.00 108.50-107.80

Intra-Day Strategy (17th January 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1557.98/oz and low of US$1547.95/oz. Gold up 0.083% at US$1552.29/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1545-1511 with risk below 1511, targeting 1552-1557 and 1564-1571-1578. Sell below 1556-1578 keeping stop loss closing above 1580, targeting 1542-1536-1527 and 1519-1511.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,542-1,536
S2     1.527
S3     1,520-1,511
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,556
R2     1.564
R3     1,571-1,578

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

52.442

Buy
20-DMA   1550.28 Buy
50-DMA  

1555.83

Buy
100-DMA   1496.98 Buy
200-DMA   1432.53 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   19.621 Sell1,571-1,578
MACD(12,26,9)   20.161 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$18.03/oz and low of US$17.85/oz settled up by 0.072% at US$17.92/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 100DMA (17.55), breakage below will lead to 17.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.60-16.00 targeting 18.00-18.50-18.70 and 19.10-19.65; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 18.00-20.10 with stop loss above 20.10; targeting 17.70-17.00 and 16.25-16.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.70-17.10
S2     16.60
S3     18.00-18.25

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     18.00-18.25
R2     18.50
R3     18.70-19.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.226 Buy
20-DMA   17.89 Buy
50-DMA   17.28 Buy
100-DMA   17.58 Buy
200-DMA   16.52 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   15.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.274 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US58.84/bbl, intraday low of US$57.57/bbl and settled up by 0.809% to close at US$58.55/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 57.76 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 58.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 57.80-54.50 with risk daily closing below 56.90 and targeting 58.60-60.00 and 61.40-62.00-62.60. Sell in between 58.60-63.00 with stop loss at 63.00; targeting 57.80-56.90-56.00 and 55.20-54.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.80-56.90
S2     56.00
S3     55.20-54.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.60-59.00
R2     60.00
R3     60.80-61.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.971 Sell
20-DMA   60.35 Sell
50-DMA   58.87 Sell
100-DMA   57.13 Buy
200-DMA   57.64 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   43.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.101 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursdays an intraday low of US$1.1127/EUR, high of US$1.1172/EUR and settled the day down by 0.122% to close at US$1.1135EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1100-1.0890 with risk below 1.0890, targeting 1.1180-1.1230-1.1280 and 1.1350-1.1400. Sell below 1.1180-1.1350 targeting 1.1110-1.1060-1.1030 and 1.0960-1.0860 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1100-1.1060
S2     1.0980
S3     1.0930

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1180-1.1230
R2     1.1280
R3     1.1350-1.1400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.085 Buy
20-DMA   1.1137 Buy
50-DMA   1.1089 Buy
100-DMA   1.1063 Buy
200-DMA   1.1138 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   42.958 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3024/GBP, high of US$1.3079/GBP and settled the day up by 0.310% to close at US$1.3077/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2769) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3060-1.3420 with targets at 1.3020-1.2930 and 1.2850-1.2800 stop-loss should be below 1.3420. Buy above 1.3010-1.2750 with targets 1.3060-1.3100-1.3150 and 1.3200-1.3250-1.3320 with stop loss closing below 1.2750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3060-1.2980
S2     1.2930
S3     1.2850-1.2800

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3100
R2     1.3150
R3     1.3200-1.3250

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.909

Buy
20-DMA   1.3061 Sell
50-DMA   1.3021 Sell
100-DMA   1.2774 Buy
200-DMA   1.2688 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   73.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0027 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY109.84/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.17/USD and settled the day up by 0.240% at JPY110.15/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.70-112.70 with risk above 112.70 targeting 110.00-109.50-109.00 and 108.50-107.80-107.00. Long positions above 110.00-107.00 with targets of 110.70-111.30 and 112.40-113.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.00-109.50
S2     109.00
S3     108.50-107.80

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.70
R2     111.20
R3     112.00-112.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.402 Buy
20-DMA   109.29 Buy
50-DMA   109.04 Buy
100-DMA   108.38 Buy
200-DMA   108.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   83.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.1886 Buy

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