AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares held near a 20-month top on Monday even as investors took some money off the table following a strong run recently, while oil jumped to more than a one-week high after two large crude production bases in Libya began shutting down. Investors look at screens showing stock information at a brokerage house in Shanghai, China January 16, Turnover in Asian shares was light with U.S. stock and bond markets closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. The Fed’s buying binge on Treasury bills has kept bonds bid even as stocks surged and economic data stayed healthy. Yields on two-year notes are dead in line with the overnight cash rate at 1.56%, compared to 2.62% this time last year. The U.S. dollar was near flat on Monday in Asia, while the Aussie dollar gained ahead of the release of the country’s latest jobs data. Figures released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed U.S. housing starts in December were well above economists' estimates for 1.38 million and were the biggest gain in 13 years. Retail sales were also on the rise and a gauge of manufacturing activity rebounded to its highest in eight months The positive data reduced chances that the Federal Reserve would slash rates when it meets later this month. Meanwhile, the AUD/USD pair rose 0.2% to 0.6886 as traders awaited Australian jobs data due on Thursday. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets next month and might announce further stimulus following three rate cuts last year amid widespread bushfires.
  • The dollar began the week on a firm note on Monday as economic data pointed to strength right across the U.S. economy, reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts. Figures on Friday showed U.S. homebuilding surged to a 13-year high in December, with retail sales also on the rise and a gauge of manufacturing activity rebounding to its highest in eight months. Futures pricing suggests nobody thinks the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates when it meets at the end of the month. The strength comes as European economic data points in the opposite direction. The German economy last week posted its weakest growth since 2013, while British inflation is anaemic and retail sales are sliding. Trade was tepid leading in to a U.S. holiday on Monday. China, meanwhile, on Friday posted its slowest annual growth figure in almost 30 years, although December data showed revived business confidence and quickening factory output. China's financial markets are evenly divided over whether the benchmark lending rate will be lowered or kept steady in response, when it is set at 0930 GMT on Monday. Gold prices inched up on Monday in Asia amid speculation of the potential success of the U.S.-China trade deal that was signed last week. The yellow metal initially fell China agreed to purchase at least $200 billion worth of US goods over the next two yearslast week, but recovered some of its losses as analysts began to question the potential success of the deal, and the chances of the trade war recurring with both nations keeping much of the tariffs they had imposed on each other prior to the agreement. Elsewhere, the U.S. Commerce Department reported strong U.S. housing starts and retail sales figure last Friday, reducing chances that the Federal Reserve would cut rates later this month.
  • Oil prices rose on Monday in Asia as intensifying tensions in the Middle East raised output and exports concerns. On Sunday, Iraq halted output at an oilfield as widespread unrest escalated. Meanwhile, in Libya, National Oil Corp. declared force majeure after Commander Khalifa Haftar blocked exports at ports under his control. Last week, the International Energy Agency noted that supplies from Iraq are “potentially vulnerable” due to rising political risks in the country. Tensions in the Middle East escalated since the beginning of the year after a U.S. airstrike killed Iran’s General Qassem Soleimani. On the other hand, OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo told CNBC in an interview that global oil demand has “upside potential.” Crude prices dropped last Friday on the weekly oil rig count published by industry firm Baker Hughes, which showed drillers adding 14 rigs to bring to 673 the total number across U.S. oil fields. In the latest development in a long-running conflict in Libya, where two rival factions have claimed the right to rule the country for more than five years, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) on Sunday said two big oilfields in the southwest had begun shutting down after forces loyal to the Libyan National Army closed a pipeline. Oil prices had fallen back in the last two weeks. After the outbreak of hostilities between the United States and Iran at the beginning of the year triggered a jump, both sides took steps to pull back from conflict, calming the market's mood. If exports are halted for any sustained period, tanks for storage will fill within days and production will slow to 72,000 barrels per day (bpd), an NOC spokesman said. Libya has been producing around 1.2 million bpd recently. Also on Sunday, foreign countries agreed at a summit in Berlin on Sunday to shore up a shaky truce in Libya, even as the talks were overshadowed by the latest blockade. German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters that the Berlin summit, attended by the main backers of the rival Libyan factions, had agreed that a tentative truce in Tripoli over the past week should be turned into a permanent ceasefire to allow a political process to take place.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
20th January 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1.564 1,571-1,578 1,590
Silver-XAG 18.10-18.25 18.50 18.70-19.00
Crude Oil 59.50 60.30 60.80-61.40
EURO/USD 1.1180-1.1230 1.1280 1.1350-1.1400
GBP/USD 1.3060-1.3100 1.3150 1.3200-1.3250
USD/JPY 110.70 111.20 112.00-112.40

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
20th January 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,556-1,542 1,536 1.527-1,520
Silver-XAG 17.90-17.10 16.60 16.25-16.00
Crude Oil 58.60-57.80 56.90 56.00-55.20
EURO/USD 1.1090-1.1060 1.0980 1.0930-1.0890
GBP/USD 1.2980 1.2930 1.2850-1.2800
USD/JPY 110.00-109.50 109.00 108.50-107.80

Intra-Day Strategy (20th January 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1561.12/oz and low of US$1549.31/oz. Gold up 0.324% at US$1557.34/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1556-1520 with risk below 1520, targeting 1564-1571-1578 and 1584-1590. Sell below 1564-1590 keeping stop loss closing above 1590, targeting 1556-1542-1536 and 1527-1519.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,556-1,542
S2     1,536
S3     1.527-1,520
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.564
R2     1,571-1,578
R3     1,590

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

67.442

Buy
20-DMA   1536.56 Buy
50-DMA  

1494.74

Buy
100-DMA   1497.65 Buy
200-DMA   1436.36 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   80.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   19.161 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$18.15/oz and low of US$17.89/oz settled up by 0.541% at US$18.02/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 100DMA (17.55), breakage below will lead to 17.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.60-16.00 targeting 18.00-18.50-18.70 and 19.10-19.65; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 18.00-20.10 with stop loss above 20.10; targeting 17.70-17.00 and 16.25-16.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.90-17.10
S2     16.60
S3     16.25-16.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     18.10-18.25
R2     18.50
R3     18.70-19.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.226 Buy
20-DMA   17.90 Buy
50-DMA   17.31 Buy
100-DMA   17.57 Buy
200-DMA   16.55 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   70.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.274 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US58.95/bbl, intraday low of US$58.28/bbl and settled up by 0.276% to close at US$58.74/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 57.76 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 58.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 59.00-54.50 with risk daily closing below 54.50 and targeting 59.50-60.30 and 61.40-62.00-62.60. Sell in between 59.50-63.00 with stop loss at 63.00; targeting 58.60-57.80-56.90 and 56.00-55.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     58.60-57.80
S2     56.90
S3     56.00-55.20

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     59.50
R2     60.30
R3     60.80-61.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.971 Sell
20-DMA   60.27 Sell
50-DMA   58.91 Sell
100-DMA   57.16 Buy
200-DMA   57.61 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   68.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.179 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1085/EUR, high of US$1.1141/EUR and settled the day down by 0.404% to close at US$1.1090/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1090-1.0890 with risk below 1.0890, targeting 1.1180-1.1230-1.1280 and 1.1350-1.1400. Sell below 1.1180-1.1350 targeting 1.1110-1.1060-1.1030 and 1.0960-1.0860 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1090-1.1060
S2     1.0980
S3     1.0930-1.0890

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1180-1.1230
R2     1.1280
R3     1.1350-1.1400

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.085 Buy
20-DMA   1.1134 Buy
50-DMA   1.1092 Buy
100-DMA   1.1065 Buy
200-DMA   1.1135 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   26.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3005/GBP, high of US$1.3117/GBP and settled the day down by 0.513% to close at US$1.3010/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2769) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3060-1.3420 with targets at 1.3020-1.2930 and 1.2850-1.2800 stop-loss should be below 1.3420. Buy above 1.3010-1.2750 with targets 1.3060-1.3100-1.3150 and 1.3200-1.3250-1.3320 with stop loss closing below 1.2750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2980
S2     1.2930
S3     1.2850-1.2800

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3060-1.3100
R2     1.3150
R3     1.3200-1.3250

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

45.909

Buy
20-DMA   1.3058 Sell
50-DMA   1.3024 Sell
100-DMA   1.2782 Buy
200-DMA   1.2687 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   46.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0027 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY110.04/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.28/USD and settled the day down by 0.009% at JPY110.14/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.70-112.70 with risk above 112.70 targeting 110.00-109.50-109.00 and 108.50-107.80-107.00. Long positions above 110.00-107.00 with targets of 110.70-111.30 and 112.40-113.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.00-109.50
S2     109.00
S3     108.50-107.80

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.70
R2     111.20
R3     112.00-112.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.402 Buy
20-DMA   109.29 Buy
50-DMA   109.04 Buy
100-DMA   108.38 Buy
200-DMA   108.59 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   83.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.1886 Buy

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING