AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar climbed against its rivals Friday as data showing ongoing strength in the U.S. services sector offset a continued slowing in manufacturing to a three-year low. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.18% to 97.87. The IHS Markit flash purchasing managers index for manufacturing slipped to a three-month low in January, but the services PMI rose to the highest level since last March. Strength in the greenback was also supported by plunge in the pound and euro. GBP/USD fell 0.29% to $1.308 and more losses could follow when trade negotiations between the U.K. and the EU begin after the U.K. leaves the trading bloc on Jan. 31, said Jane Foley, senior foreign-exchange strategist at Rabobank. EUR/USD fell 0.20% to $.1013 shrugging off better-than-expected PMIs from Germany amid expectations that the European Central Bank is set to persist with negative rates at least until the end of the year. USD/JPY fell 0.21% to $109.26 as the yen was supported by an uptick in safe-demand after the CDC confirmed that a second case of the coronavirus had been identified in the U.S.
  • The U.S. dollar is showing some strength against the safe haven Japanese yen Friday as a degree of calmness returns to traders who have fretted all week over the new pneumonia-like virus in China. Elsewhere, the euro has shown weakness after the European Central Bank indicated no immediate movement from its current monetary policy stance at Thursday’s meeting. President Christine Lagarde told Bloomberg Friday insisted that the bank is not on "autopilot" but others were skeptical. Overnight, The number of cases of patients infected with the new virus as of January 23 has gone up to 830 in China, while the death toll from the virus has risen to 25, the National Health Commission announced on Friday. Late Thursday, the World Health Organization stopped short of calling the virus a global health emergency, even as the number of cases of patients infected with the new virus topped 800 in China, with the death toll rising to 25. President Christine Lagarde’s comments did not imply any increased reservations towards using any of the tools at the ECB’s disposal, the note said. “If downside growth risks increase again in the coming months, as we expect, the market should not have any problems pricing in a higher risk of further stimulus measures.” With the outlook for growth being so important in the ECB's eyes, traders will focus on the various PMI data due for release Friday, and in particular the German manufacturing PMI number, due at 3:30 AM ET (0830 GMT).
  • The euro held near seven-week lows on Friday after the European Central Bank struck a more dovish tone at Thursday's meeting than some had expected. Investor attention will turn to the flash PMI releases for January, which are some of the first indicators of how the global economy has performed moving into 2020. The key data, the euro zone and German PMI figures, are expected to rise from previous readings. Higher-than-expected readings could trigger a rally. ECB President Christine Lagarde told a news conference after Thursday's meeting that risks to euro zone growth remained tilted to the downside. Markets took her tone as dovish.
  • Crude prices fell more than 2% to multi-month lows on Monday as the rising number of cases of the new corona virus in China and city lockdowns there deepened concerns over oil demand, even as Saudi Arabia's energy minister sought to calm the market. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdul-Aziz bin Salman Al-Saud said on Monday he was watching developments in China and said he felt confident the new virus would be contained. Markets are being "primarily driven by psychological factors and extremely negative expectations adopted by some market participants despite (the virus's) very limited impact on global oil demand," he said. With the corona virus’s ability to spread getting stronger most financial markets are being hit, although many are closed in Asia due to Lunar New Year holidays. He also said he was confident the kingdom and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), along with producers in a group known as OPEC+, had the capability to respond and steady the oil market if needed. OPEC+, which includes Russia and other producers, has been withholding supply to support oil prices and recently increased its agreed output reduction by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.7 million bpd through March. Prince Abdulaziz said on Friday the aim of OPEC+ was to cut seasonal inventory builds that typically occur in the first half of the year. All options were open when OPEC+ meets in Vienna in March, he said.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
27th January 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,580-1,590 1,600 1,611-1,620
Silver-XAG 18.25 18.50-18.70 19.10
Crude Oil 53.80-54.70 55.20 56.00-56.90
EURO/USD 1.1040-1.1190 1.1230 1.1280-1.1350
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3150 1.3200 1.3250-1.3290
USD/JPY 109.50-109.90 110.70 110.70 111.20-112.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
27th January 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,571-1.564 1,548 1,542-1,536
Silver-XAG 17.90-17.50 17.10 16.60-16.25
Crude Oil 52.90-52.20 51.50 51.00-50.40
EURO/USD 1.1020-1.0980 1.0930 1.0890-1.0850
GBP/USD 1.3060 1.3010 1.2980-1.2930
USD/JPY 109.00 108.50-107.80 107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (27th January 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1575.77/oz and low of US$1556.44/oz. Gold up 0.563% at US$1571.32/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1571-1536 with risk below 1536, targeting 1584-1590-1600 and 1611-1620. Sell below 1584-1620 keeping stop loss closing above 1620, targeting 1578-1564-1556 and 1542-1536.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,571-1.564
S2     1,548
S3     1,542-1,536
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,580-1,590
R2     1,600
R3     1,611-1,620

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

72.713

Buy
20-DMA   1553.78 Buy
50-DMA  

1505.22

Buy
100-DMA   1499.26 Buy
200-DMA   1443.40 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   80.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   17.161 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$18.13/oz and low of US$17.73/oz settled up by 1.67% at US$18.09/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 100DMA (17.55), breakage below will lead to 17.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.90-16.00 targeting 18.25-18.50-18.70 and 19.10-19.65; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 18.25-20.10 with stop loss above 20.10; targeting 17.90-17.50-17.00 and 16.25-16.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.90-17.50
S2     17.10
S3     16.60-16.25

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     18.25
R2     18.50-18.70
R3     19.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.226 Buy
20-DMA   17.98 Buy
50-DMA   17.42 Buy
100-DMA   17.53 Buy
200-DMA   16.63 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   68.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.145 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US55.93/bbl, intraday low of US$53.83/bbl and settled down by 2.78% to close at US$54.11/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 57.76 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 58.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 52.90-50.40 with risk daily closing below 50.50 and targeting 53.80-54.70-55.20 and 56.00-56.90. Sell in between 53.80-56.90 with stop loss at 57.00; targeting 52.90-52.20-51.50 and 51.00-50.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     52.90-52.20
S2     51.50
S3     51.00-50.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     53.80-54.70
R2     55.20
R3     56.00-56.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   22.971 Sell
20-DMA   59.86 Sell
50-DMA   58.74 Sell
100-DMA   57.18 Buy
200-DMA   57.40 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   11.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.179 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1018/EUR, high of US$1.1061/EUR and settled the day down by 0.262% to close at US$1.1024/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1020-1.0850 with risk below 1.0850, targeting 1.1040-1.1180-1.1230 and 1.1280-1.1350. Sell below 1.1040-1.1350 targeting 1.1020-1.0980 and 1.0930-1.0860 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1350.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1020-1.0980
S2     1.0930
S3     1.0890-1.0850

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1040-1.1190
R2     1.1230
R3     1.1280-1.1350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   36.085 Buy
20-DMA   1.1121 Sell
50-DMA   1.1096 Sell
100-DMA   1.1068 Sell
200-DMA   1.1129 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   11.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3056/GBP, high of US$1.3173/GBP and settled the day down by 0.382% to close at US$1.3073/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2769) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3100-1.3300 with targets at 1.3060-1.3020-1.2930 and 1.2850-1.2800 stop-loss should be below 1.3420. Buy above 1.3060-1.2750 with targets 1.3100-1.3150 and 1.3200-1.3250-1.3320 with stop loss closing below 1.2750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3060
S2     1.3010
S3     1.2980-1.2930

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3100-1.3150
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3250-1.3290

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.909

Buy
20-DMA   1.3083 Sell
50-DMA   1.3049 Sell
100-DMA   1.2828 Buy
200-DMA   1.2688 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   59.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0027 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY109.16/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.64/USD and settled the day down by 0.192% at JPY109.27/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.90-112.70 with risk above 112.70 targeting 109.50-109.00 and 108.50-107.80-107.00. Long positions above 109.50-107.00 with targets of 109.50-110.70-111.30 and 112.40-113.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.00
S2     108.50-107.80
S3     107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.50-109.90 110.70
R2     110.70
R3     111.20-112.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.402 Buy
20-DMA   109.33 Buy
50-DMA   109.17 Buy
100-DMA   108.61 Buy
200-DMA   108.54 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   10.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.296 Buy

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING