AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was little changed Wednesday after the Federal Reserve kept rates steady and signaled that it was in no hurry to move off the sidelines. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.06% to 97.88. In a unanimous decision, the Federal Open Market Committee left its benchmark rate unchanged in the range of 1.5% to 1.75%. The Fed's decision arrived just hours after data showed weaker-than-expected housing activity. The National Association of Realtors' measure of pending home sales unexpectedly fell 4.9% to 103.2 in December. That was the biggest decline since May 2010. The surprise drop in housing activity is largely believed to be transitory amid a favorable backdrop of low-interest rates Upside in the dollar was also kept in check by demand for safe-haven yen as the spread of the coronavirus has been gathering pace, with the death toll in China rising to 132. Cable will come into focus on Thursday, with the Bank of England expected to keep rates unchanged, but leave the door open for further easing later in the year. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday durable goods orders rose 2.4% last month, beating economist forecast for a 0.4% rise. But core durable goods orders unexpectedly fell 0.1%. The beat on the headline durable goods orders is "misleading" as it was largely driven by an rise in aircraft defense orders, Jefferies said. The U.S. dollar inched up on Thursday in Asia after the Federal Reserve said it will hold its benchmark rates steady as expected. The central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee said it will hold the rates between 1.5% and 1.75%. It was the second straight meeting the Fed made no changes to rates following three rate cuts in 2019. During his post-meeting news conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed“wanted to underscore our commitment to 2% not being a ceiling, to inflation running symmetrically around 2% and we’re not satisfied with inflation running below 2%.” The decision came just hours after data showed weaker-than-expected housing activity. The National Association of Realtors' measure of pending home sales unexpectedly fell 4.9% to 103.2 in December. That was the biggest decline since May 2010.
  • The U.S. economy likely maintained a moderate pace of growth in the fourth quarter, and probably again fell short of attaining the Trump administration’s coveted but elusive 3% annual growth target because of slumping business investment amid damaging trade tensions. The Commerce Department’s snapshot of gross domestic product on Thursday will likely show the Federal Reserve’s three interest rate cuts in 2019 helped to keep the longest expansion in history, now in its 11th year, on track and avert a downturn Growth is, however, slowing as the stimulus fades from the White House and Republicans’ huge tax reductions in 2018, a package President Donald Trump had predicted would lift growth persistently above 3%. So far it has fallen short of that goal. The report comes on the heels of the U.S. Federal Reserve deciding to keep rates unchanged. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters on Wednesday the U.S. central bank expected “moderate economic growth to continue” but also nodded to some risks, including the recent coronavirus outbreak in China. The Trump administration’s 18-month-long trade war with China last year fueled fears of a recession. Though the economic outlook has improved with this month’s signing of a Phase 1 deal with Beijing, economists do not see a boost to the economy as U.S. tariffs remained in effect on $360 billion of Chinese imports, about two-thirds of the total. Gross domestic product probably increased at a 2.1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter as lower borrowing costs encouraged purchases of motor vehicles, houses and other big ticket items, according to a Reuters survey of economists. A smaller import bill and more government spending are also seen keeping GDP growth at the same pace logged in the third quarter. Growth estimates for 2019 are converging around 2.5%, which would be slower than the 2.9% notched in 2018. Economists estimate the speed at which the economy can grow over a long period without igniting inflation at around 1.8%.
  • Oil prices were down on Thursday in Asia after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said stockpiles of U.S. oil rose more than expected last week. Oil inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 24, the EIA said. Analysts predicted a build of 482,000 barrels, according to forecasts compiled by Investing.com. Gasoline inventories were up by 1.2 million barrels, compared with forecasts for a rise of 1.3 million barrels. Distillate stockpiles fell by 1.3 million barrels, versus consensus expectations for a draw of about 1.1 million barrels. Also weighing on oil prices this week were continuing worries about the new virus in China. Death toll has climbed to 170, data from authorities showed today, as more airlines cancelled flights to China’s major cities. The World Health Organisation's Emergency Committee is set for another meeting later on Thursday to reconsider whether the rapid spread of the virus should now be called a global emergency.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th January 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,580 1,590 1,600-1,611
Silver-XAG 17.90-18.25 18.50 18.70-19.10
Crude Oil 53.80-54.70 55.20 56.00-56.90
EURO/USD 1.1040-1.1190 1.1230 1.1280-1.1350
GBP/USD 1.3060-1.3100 1.3150 1.3200-1.3250
USD/JPY 109.50-109.90 110.70 111.20-112.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th January 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,571-1.564 1,548 1,542-1,536
Silver-XAG 17.40-17.10 16.60 16.25-15.90
Crude Oil 52.70-52.20 51.50 51.00-50.20
EURO/USD 1.1010-1.0980 1.0930 1.0890-1.0850
GBP/USD 1.3010-1.2980 1.2930 1.2890-1.2820
USD/JPY 108.90 108.50-107.80 107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (30th January 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1577.93/oz and low of US$1563.34/oz. Gold up 0.616% at US$1576.79/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1564-1536 with risk below 1536, targeting 1571-1584-1590 and 1600-1611-1620. Sell below 1571-1620 keeping stop loss closing above 1620, targeting 1564-1556 and 1542-1536.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,571-1.564
S2     1,548
S3     1,542-1,536
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,580
R2     1,590
R3     1,600-1,611

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

66.614

Buy
20-DMA   1561.83 Buy
50-DMA  

1511.48

Buy
100-DMA   1501.60 Buy
200-DMA   1447.91 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   60.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   17.161 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wedensday made its intraday high of US$17.57/oz and low of US$17.34/oz settled up by 0.544% at US$17.54/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 100DMA (17.55), breakage below will lead to 17.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.40-15.90 targeting 17.90-18.25-18.50 and 18.70-19.10; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 17.90-20.10 with stop loss above 20.10; targeting 17.50-17.00 and 16.25-16.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.40-17.10
S2     16.60
S3     16.25-15.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.90-18.25
R2     18.50
R3     18.70-19.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.194 Buy
20-DMA   17.93 Buy
50-DMA   17.43 Buy
100-DMA   17.51 Buy
200-DMA   16.65 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   24.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.050 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US54.34/bbl, intraday low of US$52.82/bbl and settled down by 1.667% to close at US$53.06/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 57.76 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 58.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 52.70-50.40 with risk daily closing below 50.50 and targeting 53.80-54.70-55.20 and 56.00-56.90. Sell in between 53.80-56.90 with stop loss at 57.00; targeting 52.90-52.20 and 51.50-51.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     52.70-52.20
S2     51.50
S3     51.00-50.20

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     53.80-54.70
R2     55.20
R3     56.00-56.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   27.112 Sell
20-DMA   57.65 Sell
50-DMA   58.53 Sell
100-DMA   57.05 Buy
200-DMA   57.22 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   24.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.505 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.0991/EUR, high of US$1.1027/EUR and settled the day down by 0.109% to close at US$1.1009/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1020-1.0850 with risk below 1.0850, targeting 1.1040-1.1180-1.1230 and 1.1280-1.1350. Sell below 1.1040-1.1350 targeting 1.1020-1.0980 and 1.0930-1.0860 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1350.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1010-1.0980
S2     1.0930
S3     1.0890-1.0850

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1040-1.1190
R2     1.1230
R3     1.1280-1.1350

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.085 Buy
20-DMA   1.1102 Sell
50-DMA   1.1094 Sell
100-DMA   1.1067 Sell
200-DMA   1.1127 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   15.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2988/GBP, high of US$1.3027/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0656% to close at US$1.3017/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2769) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3060-1.3300 with targets at 1.3020-1.2930 and 1.2850-1.2800 stop-loss should be below 1.3420. Buy above 1.3060-1.2750 with targets 1.3100-1.3150 and 1.3200-1.3250-1.3320 with stop loss closing below 1.2750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3010-1.2980
S2     1.2930
S3     1.2890-1.2820

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3060-1.3100
R2     1.3150
R3     1.3200-1.3250

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.909

Buy
20-DMA   1.3079 Sell
50-DMA   1.3049 Sell
100-DMA   1.2828 Buy
200-DMA   1.2688 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   59.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0027 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY108.97/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.25/USD and settled the day up by 0.118% at JPY109.00/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.90-112.70 with risk above 112.70 targeting 109.50-109.00 and 108.50-107.80-107.00. Long positions above 109.50-107.00 with targets of 109.50-110.70-111.30 and 112.40-113.00 with stop below 107.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.90
S2     108.50-107.80
S3     107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.50-109.90
R2     110.70
R3     111.20-112.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.402 Buy
20-DMA   109.33 Buy
50-DMA   109.17 Buy
100-DMA   108.61 Buy
200-DMA   108.54 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   10.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.296 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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