AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar was unchanged on Thursday in Asia following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's second day of testimony on Capitol Hill. Sentiment for the greenback has turned positive since data last week showed the U.S. labor market is improving. In his second day of testimony, Powell suggested that there was little reason for the Fed to cut rates as the economy remained in a good place, despite the recent coronavirus outbreak. The Fed chief said earlier this week that it was too early to determine the virus' impact on the global economy. The Hubei province, the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, today reported 14,840 new cases, up from 1,638 new cases on Tuesday, as it began to include cases diagnosed with a new method. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in a statement that the fund’s primary forecast is for a quick recovery in the world’s second-largest economy. The U.S. dollar continued to rack up gains against its rivals Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's second day of testimony did little to support rate-cut hopes. In his second day of testimony on Capitol Hill, Jay Powell continued to talk up the strength of the economy and suggested there was little reason for the Fed to cut rates as the economy remained in a good place. In the run-up to Powell's testimony, investor hopes were running high that Powell would hint at a further stimulus in the wake of the Covid-19 outbreak. The Fed chief, however, said it was too early to determine the virus' impact on the global economy. The dollar was held back by the pound, however, as expectations for the next U.K. budget due in March to include a boost to fiscal spending, supporting economic growth eased worries about tricky U.K.-EU negotiations slated for March. USD/JPY gained 0.24% to Y110.04 on subdued safe-haven demand as investors bet that China's efforts to contain the coronavirus are starting to take shape following a slowdown in infections in Hubei, the province at the epicenter of the outbreak.
  • The yen rose from a three-week low against the dollar on Thursday as investors sought safe havens after China's Hubei province, the epicenter of a coronavirus outbreak, reported a sharp jump in the number of new cases. The Chinese yuan slipped against the dollar as the latest update on the spread of the virus provided a grim reminder to investors of the threat to the global economy, that has shaken markets in recent weeks. Using a new method of diagnosis, Hubei on Thursday reported 14,840 fresh cases of the virus as of Feb. 12, up from 1,638 new cases on Tuesday, with the number of deaths in the province rising by a daily record of 242 to 1,310. Both Australian and New Zealand have extensive trade ties with China, with trade in commodities, tourism and education especially vulnerable to disruption from the virus. The World Health Organization has likened the epidemic's threat to terrorism, underscoring the anxiety in financial markets about its impact across businesses and trade worldwide. Chinese policymakers have implemented a raft of measures to support the economy as fears grow the coronavirus outbreak could have a damaging impact on growth in the Asian giant and globally Sentiment for the greenback has turned positive since data last week showed the U.S. labor market is improving. In contrast, the euro wilted on Wednesday after data showed euro zone manufacturing output plunged more than expected in December, boding ill for fourth quarter euro zone gross domestic product data due on Friday.
  • Oil prices were mixed on Thursday as concerns about falling demand caused by travel restrictions tied to the coronavirus outbreak in China, the world's biggest oil importer, outweighed expectations of supply cuts from major producers. However, Hubei province, the epicenter of the outbreak, said on Thursday the number of new confirmed cases there jumped by 14,840 on Feb. 12 to 48,206, and deaths climbed by a daily record of 242 to 1,310, reflecting changes to the diagnostic methodology. Oil demand in China, the world's second-largest crude consumer, has plunged because of travel restrictions to and from the country and quarantines within it. Another Chinese oil refiner China National Chemical Corp said on Thursday it would close a 100,000 barrel-per-day plant and cut processing at two other amid falling fuel demand. However, even with the increase in cases pressuring crude, "oil prices are seeing some support from progress that the Russians may finally sign off on the OPEC+ additional production cuts," he said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, recommended last week an additional output cut of 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) to its current 1.7 million bpd reduction to offset the disease-related demand losses. OPEC yesterday lowered its 2020 forecast for demand for the group's crude by 200,000 bpd, prompting expectations that OPEC+ may enact the cuts when the group next meets, possibly as early as this month. Russia's government has not made clear that it will endorse the deeper cuts but a majority of Russian oil companies want the cuts extend through the second quarter at least, a senior Lukoil (MM:LKOH) official said on Wednesday. The expectations for lower future fuel demand because of the virus has shifted the market structure for both Brent and WTI into a contango, when prompt prices are less than later prices. Reflecting a well-supplied market, U.S. crude inventories in the week to Feb. 7 increased by a more-than-expected 7.5 million barrels to 442.5 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. That is the highest since the week of Dec. 13.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
13th February 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,580 1,590-1,600 1,610
Silver-XAG 17.90-18.25 18.50 18.70-19.10
Crude Oil 51.50 52.20 52.70-53.80
EURO/USD 1.0930-1.0980 1.1010 1.1050-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.2980 1.3060-1.3100 1.3060-1.3100
USD/JPY 110.00-110.30 110.70 111.20-111.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
13th February 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,571-1.560 1,548 1,542-1,536
Silver-XAG 17.40-17.10 16.60 16.25-15.90
Crude Oil 49.40 49.40 48.50-47.40
EURO/USD .0850 1.0810 1.0780-1.0710
GBP/USD 1.2930-1.2870 1.2840 1.2980
USD/JPY 109.50-108.90 108.50 107.80-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (13th February 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1570.38/oz and low of US$1560.15/oz. Gold down 0.123% at US$1565.70/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1571-1536 with risk below 1536, targeting 1578-1584-1590 and 1600-1610. Sell below 1580-1620 keeping stop loss closing above 1620, targeting 1571-1560-1548 and 1542-1536.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,571-1.560
S2     1,548
S3     1,542-1,536
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,580
R2     1,590-1,600
R3     1,610

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

1565.77

Buy
20-DMA   1565.77 Buy
50-DMA  

1526.55

Buy
100-DMA   1506.61 Buy
200-DMA   1458.05 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   52.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   10.161 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$17.66/oz and low of US$17.45/oz settled down by 0.941% at US$17.46/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 100DMA (17.55), breakage below will lead to 17.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.40-15.90 targeting 17.90-18.25-18.50 and 18.70-19.10; stop breakage below 16.00. Sell below 17.90-20.10 with stop loss above 20.10; targeting 17.50-17.00 and 16.25-16.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.40-17.10
S2     16.60
S3     16.25-15.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.90-18.25
R2     18.50
R3     18.70-19.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.397 Buy
20-DMA   17.78 Sell
50-DMA   17.58 Buy
100-DMA   17.49 Buy
200-DMA   16.79 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   42.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0035 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US51.87/bbl, intraday low of US$50.19/bbl and settled up by 3.258% to close at US$51.83/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 57.76 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 58.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 51.00-47.40 with risk daily closing below 47.50 and targeting 51.60-52.20 and 52.70-53.80. Sell in between 51.50-55.00 with stop loss at 55.00; targeting 51.00-50.20-49.40 and 48.00-48.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     49.40
S2     49.40
S3     48.50-47.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     51.50
R2     52.20
R3     52.70-53.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.112 Sell
20-DMA   53.06 Sell
50-DMA   57.23 Sell
100-DMA   56.37 Sell
200-DMA   56.59 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   -2.004 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.004 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.10864/EUR, high of US$1.0924/EUR and settled the day down by 0.383% to close at US$1.0872/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0850-1.0710 with risk below 1.0710, targeting 1.0930-1.0980-1.10110 and 1.1050-1.1100. Sell below 1.0930-1.1250 targeting 1.0890-1.0810 and 1.0780-1.0710 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     .0850
S2     1.0810
S3     1.0780-1.0710

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0930-1.0980
R2     1.1010
R3     1.1050-1.1100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   29.057 Buy
20-DMA   1.1036 Sell
50-DMA   1.1088 Sell
100-DMA   1.1063 Sell
200-DMA   1.1193 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   2.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2946/GBP, high of US$1.2990/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0494% to close at US$1.2957/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.2769) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2980-1.3200 with targets at 1.2930-1.2870-1.2840 and 1.2760-1.2700 stop-loss should be below 1.3200. Buy above 1.2980-1.2750 with targets 1.2980-1.3010-1.3060 and 1.3100-1.3150-1.3200 with stop loss closing below 1.2750.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2930-1.2870
S2     1.2840
S3     1.2980

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2980
R2     1.3060-1.3100
R3     1.3060-1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

45.909

Buy
20-DMA   1.3025 Sell
50-DMA   1.3070 Sell
100-DMA   1.2898 Buy
200-DMA   1.2688 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   39.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0027 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY109.76/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.12/USD and settled the day up by 0.280% at JPY110.08/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.50-108.90
S2     108.50
S3     107.80-107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.00-110.30
R2     110.70
R3     111.20-111.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.402 Buy
20-DMA   109.52 Buy
50-DMA   109.23 Buy
100-DMA   108.77 Buy
200-DMA   108.40 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   97.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.126 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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