AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks were set to rally on Tuesday as the U.S. Federal Reserve's sweeping pledge to spend whatever it took to stabilize the financial system eased debt market pressures, even if it could not offset the immediate economic hit of the coronavirus. While Wall Street still finished lower, investors in Asia were encouraged enough to lift E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 by 2%. In its latest drastic step, the Fed offered to buy unlimited amounts of assets to steady markets and expanded its mandate to corporate and muni bonds. The numbers were certainly large, with analysts estimating the package could make $4 trillion or more in loans to non-financial firms. The Fed's package helped calm nerves in bond markets where yields on two-year Treasuries hit their lowest since 2013, while 10-year yields dropped back sharply to 0.77%. Yet analysts fear it will do little to offset the near-term economic damage done by mass lockdowns and layoffs. Speculation is mounting data due on Thursday will show U.S. jobless claims rose an eye-watering 1 million last week, with forecasts ranging as high as 4 million. A range of flash surveys on European and U.S. manufacturing for March are due later on Tuesday and are expected to show deep declines into recessionary territory. While governments around the globe are launching ever-larger fiscal stimulus packages, the latest U.S. effort remains stalled in the Senate as Democrats said it contained too little money for hospitals and not enough limits on funds for big business. The logjam combined with the stimulus splash from the Fed to take a little of the shine off the U.S. dollar, though it remains in demand as a global store of liquidity.
  • The dollar slipped on Tuesday on signs tight funding conditions are easing slightly after the U.S. Federal Reserve pulled out all stops to supply much needed greenback liquidity. The Fed announced unlimited quantitative easing and programs to support credit markets on Monday in a drastic bid to backstop an economy reeling from emergency restrictions on commerce to fight the coronavirus. The Fed, which has already expanded its balance sheet to a record level, undertook unprecedented measures to extend its "lender of last resort" power beyond Wall Street to Main Street and City Hall. It announced various programs including purchases of corporate bonds, guarantees for direct loans to companies and a plan to get credit to small and medium-sized business. The radical steps came after U.S. money markets seized up as a broad set of market participants, from big multinational carmakers to small shop owners, hoarded dollars fearing a slump in cash flow during lockdowns in their countries. While the Fed's move is likely to mitigate the blow for many companies in the long-run, investors remained on edge amid uncertainty about the extent of the pandemic. Coronavirus cases continued to rise exponentially in many countries, raising worries about the lack of hospital beds in some areas. Wall Street's slide deepened on Monday as the rapidly spreading coronavirus forced more U.S. states into lockdown while Washington's fiscal stimulus package remained stalled in the Senate. The three-month dollar/yen currency basis swap spread, seen as the market premium demanded for swapping yen for dollar, stood at 0.80% , down from a peak of around 1.4% last week but still far above normal levels around 0.2-0.4%. Market players are looking to a raft of business sentiment surveys in Europe due later in the day for a glimpse of how the virus is affecting the real economy. The pound rebounded on Tuesday following reports that U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed stricter lockdown measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Johnson said the government would offer support and impose restrictions, including limiting gathering of more than two people in public, for at least three weeks. Meanwhile, the U.S dollar continued its fall for a third straight day on Tuesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve supplied a much-needed greenback liquidity. Overnight, the Fed announced unlimited quantitative easing and programs to support credit markets. It also released other measures, including maintaining credit flow for business and a first dabble into corporate bonds. The Fed's unlimited easing could continue to ease stress in the credit markets, leading to further weakness in the dollar.
  • Oil prices rallied Tuesday morning in Asia as the U.S. indicated the possibility of an alliance with Saudi Arabia to stabilise prices. U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette hinted on Monday that a U.S.-Saudi oil alliance was one option to stabilize prices as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to shrink demand and the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia shows no sign of abating. U.S. crude oil futures climbed nearly 3% on Tuesday in light trading as the Trump administration launched an effort to work with Saudi Arabia to stabilize oil prices. The U.S. administration has appointed a special energy representative to Saudi Arabia, Victoria Coates, as part of a diplomatic push to stabilize energy markets, hammered by a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The market is testing support following a more than 60% slide in oil prices since the start of the year due to the impact of the coronavirus on global demand and a market share war between Saudi Arabia and Russia set to bloat oil supply from April.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
24th March 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,590-1,605 1,612 1,625-1,640
Silver-XAG 13.60-13.90 14.50 15.00-15.30
Crude Oil 25.00-26.10 27.40 28.00-29.10
EURO/USD 1.0850 1.0950-1.1020 1.0950-1.1020
GBP/USD 1.1660-1.1700 1.1805 1.1900
USD/JPY 110.90 112.20-113.00 112.20-113.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
24th March 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,560-1,546 1,536 1,524-1,514
Silver-XAG 13.00 12.30-11.75 11.25
Crude Oil 24.30-23.10 22.00 21.00-20.40
EURO/USD .0770-1.0700 1.0850 1.0850
GBP/USD 1.1445 1.1445 1.1400-1.1330
USD/JPY 110.20-109.30 108.30 107.50-106.80

Intra-Day Strategy (24th March 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1561.48/oz and low of US$1485.10/oz. Gold up 3.027% at US$1553.81/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1563-1524 with risk below 1514, targeting 1590-1605 and 1612-1625-1640. Sell below 1584-1625 keeping stop loss closing above 1625, targeting 1560-1546-1536 and 1524-1514.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,560-1,546
S2     1,536
S3     1,524-1,514
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,590-1,605
R2     1,612
R3     1,625-1,640

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

34.609

Buy
20-DMA   1613.27 Buy
50-DMA  

1586.42

Buy
100-DMA   1535.83 Buy
200-DMA   1500.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   31.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -14.052 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$13.29/oz and low of US$12.60/oz settled up by 5.357% at US$13.27/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 100DMA (17.55), breakage below will lead to 17.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 12.50-10.20 targeting 13.00-13.60-13.90 and 14.50-14.80-15.30; stop breakage below 10.20. Sell below 13.00-15.00 with stop loss above 15.00; targeting 12.50-11.75 and 11.25-10.70-10.20.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     13.00
S2     12.30-11.75
S3     11.25

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     13.60-13.90
R2     14.50
R3     15.00-15.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   22.250 Buy
20-DMA   15.90 Sell
50-DMA   17.08 Sell
100-DMA   17.18 Sell
200-DMA   17.04 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   20.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.964 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US22.73/bbl, intraday low of US$20.80/bbl and settled down by 3.73% to close at US$23.36/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 57.76 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 58.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 24.30-22.00 with risk daily closing below 22.00 and targeting 25.00-26.10 and 27.60-28.50-30.00. Sell in between 25.00-27.40 with stop loss at 28.00; targeting 24.30 and 26.10-27.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     24.30-23.10
S2     22.00
S3     21.00-20.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     25.00-26.10
R2     27.40
R3     28.00-29.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   20.911 Sell
20-DMA   38.30 Sell
50-DMA   47.57 Sell
100-DMA   53.11 Sell
200-DMA   54.57 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   34.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -6.460 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.0637/EUR, high of US$1.0828/EUR and settled the day up by 0.252% to close at US$1.0723/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0770-1.0560 with risk below 1.0560, targeting 1.0850-1.0900 and 1.0950-1.1020-1.1100. Sell below 1.0850-1.1100 targeting 1.10770-1.0700-1.0650 and 1.0600-1.0560 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     .0770-1.0700
S2     1.0850
S3     1.0850

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0850
R2     1.0950-1.1020
R3     1.0950-1.1020

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   1.1050 Buy
20-DMA   1.1050 Buy
50-DMA   1.1044 Buy
100-DMA   1.1066 Buy
200-DMA   1.1100 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.008 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1446/GBP, high of US$1.1741/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0943% to close at US$1.1550/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2924) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1600-1.1900 with targets at 1.1600-1.1500-1.1445 and 1.1400-1.1330 stop-loss should be below 1.1290. Buy above 1.1600-1.1330 with targets 1.1660-1.1700-1.1805 and 1.1900-1.1960 with stop loss closing below 1.1290.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1445
S2     1.1445
S3     1.1400-1.1330

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.1660-1.1700
R2     1.1805
R3     1.1900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

24.801

Buy
20-DMA   1.2581 Buy
50-DMA   1.2840 Buy
100-DMA   1.2678 Buy
200-DMA   1.2678 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   11.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0027 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY109.67/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.61/USD and settled the day up by 0.153% at JPY111.21/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.30-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 109.30-108.30-107.50 and 106.80-106.00. Long positions above 109.30-105.00 with targets of 110.20-110.90 and 111.50-112.20 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.20-109.30
S2     108.30
S3     107.50-106.80

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.90
R2     112.20-113.00
R3     112.20-113.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.805 Buy
20-DMA   107.54 Sell
50-DMA   108.92 Sell
100-DMA   108.95 Sell
200-DMA   108.26 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   89.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.161 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING