AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S dollar continued a week-long decline into Tuesday morning as investors await jobless claims data due later in the day. Forecasts complied by investing.com predict a million claims as the number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise. On a more positive note for the greenback, he added “In the end this may support the dollar as investors choose to bring their money home.” Even the news that the U.S. Senate passed a $2 trillion relief package failed to give the dollar a boost. The Antipodean pair’s close links to the global commodity trade led investors to liquidate their positions into U.S. dollar deposits earlier in the month. The dollar fell against the yen and the euro on Thursday before data expected to show a surge in U.S. claims for unemployment benefits as companies lay off workers due to the rapid spread of the coronavirus. The pound extended declines against the euro and the dollar due to worries that Britain is not prepared to deal with an increase in coronavirus cases after the flu-like illness ravaged health care systems in Italy and Spain Investors are anxiously awaiting the passage of a $2 trillion U.S. stimulus package to offset the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, but there are already indications that some U.S. states will need more money for medical supplies as the health care system struggles to cope. U.S. weekly jobless claims due later on Thursday are expected to rise to around a million, which would be well above the previous peak seen during the global financial crisis. Some analysts say jobless claims could even exceed one million as companies are expected to rapidly shed workers. Draconian restrictions on personal movement aimed at slowing the spread of the coronavirus are widely expected to cause a global recession. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on U.S. television at 1100 GMT, which may provide more information about policymakers' response to the pandemic Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. Senate are expected to vote on Wednesday on a $2 trillion emergency package that U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to swiftly sign the bill into law The German lower house on Wednesday suspended the country's debt brake and approved a debt-financed supplementary budget of 156 billion euros to pay for healthcare and keep companies afloat. Singapore's economy suffered its biggest contraction in a decade in the first quarter, data showed on Thursday, as the coronavirus pandemic prompted the city-state to cut its full-year GDP forecast and plan for a deep recession.
  • Gold prices fell Thursday morning in Asia after the U.S. Senate reached a deal on its massive COVID-19 relief package. Senators in the U.S. announced overnight that they had reached a deal for a $2 trillion package and were close to a vote after the text of the bill is finalized. Equities markets in Asia also had mixed reactions to the news with the continuous spread of COVID-19 prompting caution among investors. The World Health Organisation said the number of global cases topped 400,000 as of March 25.
  • Oil prices slipped on Thursday following three days of gains, with the prospect of rapidly dwindling demand due to coronavirus travel bans and lockdowns offsetting hopes a U.S. $2 trillion emergency stimulus will shore up economic activity. The U.S. Senate on Wednesday overwhelmingly backed a $2 trillion bill aimed at helping unemployed workers and industries hurt by the coronavirus epidemic. But with demand fast contracting and output rising, the outlook for oil remains dim. IHS Markit estimated global oil demand will contract by more than 14 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter, leading to unprecedented inventory builds. At the same time, the collapse of a supply-cut pact between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers led by Russia, known as OPEC+, is set to boost oil supply, with Saudi Arabia planning to ship more than 10 million bpd from May. Oil stocks are already rising with tanks around the world filling fast despite a 50%-100% jump in lease costs, as oil companies and traders scramble to park unwanted crude and refined products. Vienna-based JBC Energy said it expected world oil demand to fall by an even larger 15.3 million bpd in the second quarter, likely pushing benchmark prices, at least temporarily, to around $10 per barrel. U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.6 million barrels in the most recent week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, marking the ninth straight week of increases.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
26th March 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,605-1,612 1,625 1,640-1,654
Silver-XAG 14.50-15.00 15.30 16.00-16.35
Crude Oil 25.30-26.10 27.40 28.00-29.10
EURO/USD 1.0950-1.1020 1.1040 1.0850-1.1150
GBP/USD 1.1930-1.2000 1.2130 1.2200-1.2250
USD/JPY 110.90 111.50 112.20-113.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
26th March 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,590 1,560-1,546 1,536
Silver-XAG 13.90-13.60 13.00 12.30-11.75
Crude Oil 24.30-23.10 22.00 21.00-20.40
EURO/USD 1.0900-1.0850 1.0770 1.0700-1.0650
GBP/USD 1.1900-1.1805 1.1740 1.1660-1.1600
USD/JPY 110.20-109.30 108.30 107.50-107.00

Intra-Day Strategy (26th March 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1635.43/oz and low of US$1593.34/oz. Gold down 0.266% at US$1616.19/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1590-1524 with risk below 1514, targeting 1605-1612 and 1625-1640-1655. Sell below 1605-1654 keeping stop loss closing above 1654, targeting 1590-1560-1546 and 1536-1524.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,590
S2     1,560-1,546
S3     1,536
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,605-1,612
R2     1,625
R3     1,640-1,654

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.609

Buy
20-DMA   1589.38 Buy
50-DMA  

1585.49

Buy
100-DMA   1537.82 Buy
200-DMA   1505.16 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   87.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.052 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$14.69/oz and low of US$13.99/oz settled up by 0.20% at US$14.32/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 100DMA (17.55), breakage below will lead to 17.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 13.90-11.75 targeting 14.50-14.80-15.30 and 16.00-16.35; stop breakage below 11.75. Sell below 14.50-16.35 with stop loss above 16.35; targeting 13.90-13.60-13.00 and 12.50-11.75-11.25.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     13.90-13.60
S2     13.00
S3     12.30-11.75

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.50-15.00
R2     15.30
R3     16.00-16.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.250 Buy
20-DMA   15.26 Sell
50-DMA   16.84 Sell
100-DMA   17.06 Sell
200-DMA   17.02 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   93.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.150 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US25.78/bbl, intraday low of US$23.66/bbl and settled down by 0.388% to close at US$24.88/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 57.76 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 58.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 24.30-22.00 with risk daily closing below 22.00 and targeting 25.00-26.10 and 27.60-28.50-30.00. Sell in between 25.00-27.40 with stop loss at 28.00; targeting 24.30 and 26.10-27.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     24.30-23.10
S2     22.00
S3     21.00-20.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     25.30-26.10
R2     27.40
R3     28.00-29.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   28.911 Sell
20-DMA   34.33 Sell
50-DMA   45.50 Sell
100-DMA   52.46 Sell
200-DMA   54.16 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   35.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -6.460 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.0759/EUR, high of US$1.0893/EUR and settled the day up by 0.886% to close at US$1.0879/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0900-1.0650 with risk below 1.0650, targeting 1.0950-1.1020-1.10850 and 1.1150-1.1170. Sell below 1.0950-1.1150 targeting 1.0900-1.0850 and 1.10770-1.0700-1.0650 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1150.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0900-1.0850
S2     1.0770
S3     1.0700-1.0650

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0950-1.1020
R2     1.1040
R3     1.0850-1.1150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.390 Buy
20-DMA   1.1051 Buy
50-DMA   1.0994 Buy
100-DMA   1.1042 Buy
200-DMA   1.1084 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   65.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.008 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1637/GBP, high of US$1.1972/GBP and settled the day up by 0.931% to close at US$1.1882/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2924) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.1930-1.2250 with targets at 1.1805-1.1700-1.1600 and 1.1500-1.1445-1.1400 stop-loss should be below 1.2250. Buy above 1.1805-1500 with targets 1.1960-1.2000 and 1.2130-1.2200-1.2250 with stop loss closing below 1.1290.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1900-1.1805
S2     1.1740
S3     1.1660-1.1600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.1930-1.2000
R2     1.2130
R3     1.2200-1.2250

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

24.801

Buy
20-DMA   1.2581 Buy
50-DMA   1.2840 Buy
100-DMA   1.2923 Buy
200-DMA   1.2678 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   11.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0027 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.74/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.67/USD and settled the day down by 01.139% at JPY111.14/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.30-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 109.30-108.30-107.50 and 106.80-106.00. Long positions above 109.30-105.00 with targets of 110.20-110.90 and 111.50-112.20 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     110.20-109.30
S2     108.30
S3     107.50-107.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.90
R2     111.50
R3     112.20-113.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.805 Buy
20-DMA   107.54 Sell
50-DMA   108.92 Sell
100-DMA   108.95 Sell
200-DMA   108.26 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   89.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.161 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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