AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares were closing out a calamitous quarter with a tentative rally on Tuesday as factory data from China held out the hope of a rebound in activity, even as much of the rest of the world shut down. China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) bounced to 52.0 in March, up from a record-low 35.7 in February and topping forecasts of 45.0. Analysts cautioned the index could overstate the true improvement as it measures the net balance of firms reporting an expansion or contraction in activity. If a company merely resumed working after a forced stoppage, it would read as an expansion without saying much about the overall level of activity. The number was enough of a relief to help MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .US rise 1.1%. That still left it down 22% for the quarter, its worst performance since 2008. News on the coronavirus remained grim but radical stimulus steps by governments and central banks have at least provided some comfort to economies. Infections in hard-hit Italy slowed a little, but the government still extended its lockdown to mid-April. California reported a steep rise in people being hospitalized, while Washington state told people to stay at home. Trade ministers from the Group of 20 major economies agreed on Monday to keep their markets open and ensure the flow of vital medical supplies. Portfolio management also played a part in the forex market where many fund managers found them over-hedged on their U.S. equity holdings given the sharp fall in values seen this month, leading them to buy back dollars. Oil prices steadied, after diving to the lowest in almost 18 years on Monday as lockdowns for the virus squeezed demand even as Saudi Arabia and Russia vied to pump more product. In a new twist, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed during a phone call on Monday to have their top energy officials meet to discuss slumping prices. In the gold market all the talk has been of a rush of demand for the physical product amid shortages in coins and small bars. Flows into gold-backed ETFs have ballooned by $13 bn so far this year, the most since 2004.
  • The dollar traded marginally higher Tuesday, helped by gains against the more defensive currencies, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, on the last trading day of the month. That said, the yen and the Swiss franc are often seen as safe havens during troubled times, and the better-than-expected China manufacturing PMI data will have given traders hope that some economic stabilisation may be possible going forward. Global risk stabilisation near term supports EUR/USD at 1.10-1.12 for now, said analysts at Danske Bank, in a research note. Additionally, GBP/USD dropped 1% to 1.2292, as the Fitch downgrading of U.K.’s sovereign debt rating on Friday continued to takr its toll on sterling. Elsewhere, the forint is lower, with EUR/HUF up 0.2% at 359.13, having hit a new all-time high on Tuesday after the Hungarian Parliament voted Monday to give Prime Minister Viktor Orban the right to rule by decree during the coronavirus emergency - with no time limit. The measures establish a dictatorship in all but name in the heart of the EU, which has long prided itself on its role in fostering democracy in Europe. The U.S dollar rose on Tuesday in Asia as Japanese investors scrambled for greenbacks on the last day of their fiscal year. The USD/CNY pair lost 0.15% to 7.0877. China’s manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), announced this morning, was a better-than-expected 52.0, and the yuan eased yesterday after the People’s Bank of China announced a cut in its reverse repo rate. The GBP/USD pair slid 0.66% to 1.2334 as reverberations from Fitch Ratings downgrading Britain’s sovereign debt rating on Friday continue to impact the Sterling.
  • Oil prices ended March by clawing back some losses after prices fell to 18-year lows in the last session.WTI slumped almost 7% to $20.09 a barrel on Monday, its lowest level since February 2002 as oil markets continued to search for a solution to its' dilemma of oversupply. Saudi Arabia and Russia will be able to pump-at-will from tomorrow as the OPEC+ alliance failed to mediate a truce in the price war between the two producers. Meanwhile, most countries are extending lockdown deadlines as well as slashing transport numbers to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. A conversation between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Monday to discuss the importance of stable energy markets, failed to make an impact. Oil recovered some ground on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to discuss stabilizing energy markets, but prices remain near 18-year lows as the coronavirus shutdown destroys demand.. Oil markets have faced a double whammy from the coronavirus outbreak and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia after OPEC and other producers failed to agree on deeper cuts to support oil prices in early March. U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed during a phone call on Monday to have their top energy officials discuss stabilizing oil markets, the Kremlin said on Monday. Saudi Arabia, de facto leader of the OPEC, planned to boost its oil exports to 10.6 million barrels per day (bpd) from May on lower domestic consumption, a Saudi energy ministry official said. Global oil refiners, meanwhile, have cut their production due to the slump in demand for transportation fuel, with European refineries slashing output by at least 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd), sources told Reuters.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
31st March 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,625-1,640 1,654 1,665-1690
Silver-XAG 14.40-15.00 15.30 16.00-16.35
Crude Oil 23.10 24.00 25.30-26.10
EURO/USD 1.1010-1.1050 1.1085 1.1150-1.1200
GBP/USD 1.2420-1.2500 1.2570 1.2650-1.2700
USD/JPY 109.30 110.20 110.90-111.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
31st March 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,612-1,605 1,590 1,576-1,560
Silver-XAG 13.90 13.60 13.00-12.30
Crude Oil 22.00-21.00 20.45 19.80-19.00
EURO/USD 1.0900-1.0850 1.0770 1.0700-1.0630
GBP/USD 1.2320-1.2250 1.2180 1.2130-1.2000
USD/JPY 107.50 106.90 106.50-106.00

Intra-Day Strategy (31st March 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1635.52/oz and low of US$1610.24/oz. Gold down 0.767% at US$1619.56/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1605-1546 with risk below 1546, targeting 1625-1640-1655 and 1664-1675-1690. Sell below 1605-1654 keeping stop loss closing above 1654, targeting 1605-1590-1560 and 1546-1536.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,612-1,605
S2     1,590
S3     1,576-1,560
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,625-1,640
R2     1,654
R3     1,665-1690

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

55.609

Buy
20-DMA   1591.90 Buy
50-DMA  

1585.49

Buy
100-DMA   1537.82 Buy
200-DMA   87.621 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   87.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -11.052 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$14.52/oz and low of US$13.76/oz settled down by 3.16% at US$13.97/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 100DMA (17.55), breakage below will lead to 17.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 13.90-11.75 targeting 14.50-14.80-15.30 and 16.00-16.35; stop breakage below 11.75. Sell below 14.50-16.35 with stop loss above 16.35; targeting 13.90-13.60-13.00 and 12.50-11.75-11.25.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     13.90
S2     13.60
S3     13.00-12.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.40-15.00
R2     15.30
R3     16.00-16.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.250 Buy
20-DMA   15.26 Sell
50-DMA   16.84 Sell
100-DMA   17.06 Sell
200-DMA   17.02 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   93.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.150 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US22.49/bbl, intraday low of US$21.00/bbl and settled down by 1.942% to close at US$21.90/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 57.76 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 58.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 22.00-19.00 with risk daily closing below 19.00 and targeting 23.10-24.00-25.30 and 26.10 and 27.60-28.50-30.00. Sell in between 23.10-27.40 with stop loss at 28.00; targeting 23.10-24.30-25.00 and 26.10-27.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     22.00-21.00
S2     20.45
S3     19.80-19.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     23.10
R2     24.00
R3     25.30-26.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   28.911 Sell
20-DMA   29.59 Sell
50-DMA   42.64 Sell
100-DMA   50.78 Sell
200-DMA   53.37 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   34.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -6.327 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1009/EUR, high of US$1.1143/EUR and settled the day down by 0.654% to close at US$1.1043/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0900-1.0700 with risk below 1.0700, targeting 1.0900-1.10850-1.1150 and 1.1170-1.1200-1.1250. Sell below 1.1010-1.1200 targeting 1.0900-1.0850a and 1.0770-1.0700-1.0630 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0900-1.0850
S2     1.0770
S3     1.0700-1.0630

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1010-1.1050
R2     1.1085
R3     1.1150-1.1200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.673 Buy
20-DMA   1.1048 Buy
50-DMA   1.0994 Buy
100-DMA   1.1044 Buy
200-DMA   1.1078 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   80.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.008 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2316/GBP, high of US$1.2466/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0644% to close at US$1.2404/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2924) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2420-1.2700 with targets at 1.2320-1.2250-1.2180 and 1.2130-1.2000-1.1900 stop-loss should be below 1.2570. Buy above 1.2320-1.2000 with targets 1.2420-1.2500-1.2570 and 1.2650-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.1290.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2320-1.2250
S2     1.2180
S3     1.2130-1.2000

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2420-1.2500
R2     1.2570
R3     1.2650-1.2700

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

50.801

Buy
20-DMA   1.2300 Buy
50-DMA   1.2706 Buy
100-DMA   1.2867 Buy
200-DMA   1.2658 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY107.11/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.29/USD and settled the day up by 0.0575% at JPY107.73/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.30-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 108.30-107.50 and 106.80-106.00. Long positions above 109.30-105.00 with targets of 110.20-110.90 and 111.50-112.20 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.50
S2     106.90
S3     106.50-106.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.30
R2     110.20
R3     110.90-111.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.805 Buy
20-DMA   107.54 Sell
50-DMA   108.92 Sell
100-DMA   108.95 Sell
200-DMA   108.26 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   89.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.161 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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