AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was in demand in early trading in Europe on Friday, as investors sought safety following the dire U.S. unemployment figures which illustrated the extent of the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. The outbreak of the pandemic has caused developed economies to virtually close down as governments attempt social distancing policies to stem the spreading of the virus. Further evidence of the damage associated with these policies emerged in the United States Thursday, with an unprecedented number of workers - 6.6 million - filing jobless claims. At the same time, the pandemic has shown few signs of abating Friday, with global cases surpassing one million, with more than 53,000 deaths, over 6,000 of which were in the U.S. There’s more U.S. employment data to come at 8:30 AM ET (12:30 GMT), in the form of the official jobs report for March. However, this was from the week of March 12, before any major U.S. state had gone into lockdown, and thus is likely to only have a limited impact. Adding to the dollar’s appeal has been the sudden rebound in the price of oil, although Thursday’s sharp gains have been sold into early Friday. Oil is priced in dollars and the U.S. is also the world's top oil and gas producer. However, the dollar could be hammered as soon as we approach a reopening of the economy, he warned.
  • The U.S. dollar surged in Asia on Friday as crude oil prices came off a record session. Crude oil prices jumped almost 25% as U.S. President Trump hinted at a possible resolution to the Saudi Arabia - Russia price war yesterday. Meanwhile, the United States faces record unemployment rates due to the COVID-19 epidemic as it announced overnight that 6.648 million people in the country claimed unemployment. As the World Health Organization said that the number of global COVID-19 cases exceeded 900,000 as of April 2, investors continue to bide their time. The U.S. economy likely shed jobs in March, abruptly ending a historic 113 straight months of employment growth as stringent measures to control the coronavirus pandemic shuttered businesses and factories, confirming a recession is underway. The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday will not fully reflect the economic carnage being inflected by the contagious coronavirus. The government surveyed businesses and households for the report in mid-March, before a large section of the population was under some form of a lockdown, throwing millions out of work. Friday’s report could sharpen criticism of the Trump administration’s handling of the public health crisis, with President Donald Trump himself facing criticism for playing down the threat of the pandemic in its initial phases. Already, data has shown a record 10 million Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits in the last two weeks of March. The United States has the highest number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the virus, with more than 214,000 people infected. Nearly 5,000 people in the country have died from the illness, according to a Reuters tally. According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls probably decreased by 100,000 jobs last month, snapping a record streak of employment gains dating to October 2010. Payrolls increased by 273,000 jobs in February. With jobless claims, the most timely indicator of labor market health, breaking records over the last couple of weeks and a majority of Americans now under “stay-at-home” or “shelter-in-place” orders, Oxford Economics is predicting payrolls could plunge by at least 20 million jobs in April, which would blow away the record 800,000 tumble in March 2009. The unemployment rate is forecast to have increased three-tenths of a percentage point to 3.8% in March. With the ranks of the unemployed ballooning, economists say the jobless rate could top 10% in April. Mounting job losses spell disaster for gross domestic product, and economists say the government and the Federal Reserve will need to provide additional stimulus. Some also argued a portion of cash payments to American families was likely to be saved, not spent, pointing to similar patterns in the early 2000s. Economists believe GDP contracted sharply in the first quarter and that the economy slipped into recession in March.
  • Oil prices fell on Friday morning in Asia as investors express doubts about a U.S.-mediated truce between Russia and Saudi Arabia U.S. Crude Oil WTI Futures jumped almost 25% in the last session as U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that Saudi Arabia and Russia had agreed to a cut of “approximately 10 million barrels, and maybe substantially more.” Saudi Arabia also called for an “urgent” meeting between OPEC and its allies via the Saudi Press Agency yesterday. Investors expressed doubts that a deal is too little, too late. Analysts also doubted that the two producers would reduce supply if other big suppliers such as the U.S. and Canada did not follow suit. “At best, we believe parties will agree to continue discussing and monitor the market situation,” Tonhaugen added.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
3rd April 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,612-1,625 1,636 1,645-1,652
Silver-XAG 15.00 15.30 16.00-16.35
Crude Oil 28.00-28.75 30.20 31.00-32.30
EURO/USD 1.0850-1.0900 1.1010 1.1050-1.1085
GBP/USD 1.2400-1.2500 1.2570 1.2650-1.2700
USD/JPY 108.30 109.00 110.20-110.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
3rd April 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,600-1,574 1,560 1,547-1,536
Silver-XAG 14.40-13.90 13.60 13.00-12.30
Crude Oil 27.00-26.10 25.30 24.00-23.50
EURO/USD 1.0770-1.0700 1.0630 1.0590-1.0530
GBP/USD 1.2320 1.2250 1.2180-1.2130
USD/JPY 107.50-106.90 106.50 106.00-105.50

Intra-Day Strategy (3rd April 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1620.42/oz and low of US$1582.56/oz. Gold up 1.511% at US$1613.47/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1600-1546 with risk below 1546, targeting 1612-1625-1636-1655 and 1664-1675. Sell below 1605-1654 keeping stop loss closing above 1654, targeting 1590-1560 and 1546-1536.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,600-1,574
S2     1,560
S3     1,547-1,536
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,612-1,625
R2     1,636
R3     1,645-1,652

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.609

Buy
20-DMA   1581.31 Buy
50-DMA  

1592.75

Buy
100-DMA   1547.90 Buy
200-DMA   1512.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   51.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$14.53/oz and low of US$13.88/oz settled up by 3.89% at US$14.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 100DMA (17.55), breakage below will lead to 17.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.40-11.75 targeting 14.50-14.80-15.30 and 16.00-16.35; stop breakage below 11.75. Sell below 15.00-16.35 with stop loss above 16.35; targeting 14.40-13.90-13.60 and 13.00-12.50-11.75.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.40-13.90
S2     13.60
S3     13.00-12.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.00
R2     15.30
R3     16.00-16.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.250 Buy
20-DMA   14.23 Sell
50-DMA   16.32 Sell
100-DMA   16.86 Sell
200-DMA   16.99 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   37.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.150 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US28.74/bbl, intraday low of US$22.54/bbl and settled up by 13.44% to close at US$25.99/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 57.76 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 58.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 27.00-20.00 with risk daily closing below 20.00 and targeting 28.00-28.75-30.20 and 31.00-32.30. Sell in between 27.00-23.50 with stop loss at 23.00; targeting 28.00-28.75-30.20 and 31.00-32.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     27.00-26.10
S2     25.30
S3     24.00-23.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     28.00-28.75
R2     30.20
R3     31.00-32.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.911 Sell
20-DMA   26.59 Sell
50-DMA   40.83 Sell
100-DMA   49.82 Sell
200-DMA   52.87 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   64.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -6.327 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.0820/EUR, high of US$1.0967/EUR and settled the day down by 0.967% to close at US$1.0855/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0770-1.0530 with risk below 1.0530, targeting 1.10850-1.0900-1.1010 and 1.1100-1.1150. Sell below 1.0850-1.1150 targeting 1.0770-1.0700-1.0630 and 1.0590-1.0530 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0770-1.0700
S2     1.0630
S3     1.0590-1.0530

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0850-1.0900
R2     1.1010
R3     1.1050-1.1085

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.673 Buy
20-DMA   1.0998 Buy
50-DMA   1.0983 Buy
100-DMA   1.1040 Buy
200-DMA   1.1071 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   14.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.008 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2347/GBP, high of US$1.2474/GBP and settled the day up by 0.188% to close at US$1.2394/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2924) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2400-1.2700 with targets at 1.2320-1.2250 and 1.2180-1.2130-1.2000 stop-loss should be below 1.2570. Buy above 1.2320-1.2000 with targets 1.2400-1.2500-1.2570 and 1.2650-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.1290.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2320
S2     1.2250
S3     1.2180-1.2130

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2400-1.2500
R2     1.2570
R3     1.2650-1.2700

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.801

Buy
20-DMA   1.2252 Buy
50-DMA   1.2678 Buy
100-DMA   1.2859 Buy
200-DMA   1.2656 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY107.00/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.08/USD and settled the day up by 0.671% at JPY107.87/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.30-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 106.90-105.50. Long positions above 107.50-105.00 with targets of 108.30-109.00 and 110.20-110.90-111.50 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.50-106.90
S2     106.50
S3     106.00-105.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.30
R2     109.00
R3     110.20-110.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.805 Buy
20-DMA   107.87 Sell
50-DMA   108.73 Sell
100-DMA   108.94 Sell
200-DMA   108.30 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   89.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.161 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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