AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Stocks jumped on Monday as investors were encouraged by a slowdown in coronavirus-related deaths and new cases, while oil prices skidded after Saudi-Russian negotiations to cut output were delayed, keeping oversupply concerns alive. Equity investors took solace as the death toll from the coronavirus slowed across major European nations including France and Italy. U.S. stock futures rose 4% in Asian hours, trading close to its upper limit after U.S. President Donald Trump expressed hope the country was seeing a “levelling off” of the coronavirus crisis. In commodity markets, Brent crude fell as much as $4 after Saudi Arabia and Russia postponed their meeting, initially scheduled for Monday, to Thursday even as the virus pandemic pummels demand. In currency markets, sterling fell 0.06% in Asia after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was admitted to hospital following persistent coronavirus symptoms 10 days after testing positive for the virus. That sent MSCI’s broadest index of Asian shares outside of Japan up almost 2.03%, on track for its best performance in over a week. Worryingly, the number of new coronavirus cases jumped in China on Sunday while the number of asymptomatic cases surged too as Beijing continued to struggle to extinguish the outbreak despite drastic containment efforts. Strickland, however, noted many in China were still subject to social distancing and isolation restrictions to prevent a resurgence in infections. The pandemic has claimed more than 68,000 lives and infected over a million people globally. The United States has the highest number of reported cases, at over 300,000. Concerns about heavy damage to the global economy have pushed investors into the perceived safety of government bonds where yields are at or near all-time lows.
  • The Japanese yen has seen selling Monday, with the country’s government expected to call a state of emergency in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Japan has been relatively lightly hit by the spread of the coronavirus pandemic so far, registering just over 3,600 cases, according to Johns Hopkins University. However, pressure is starting to mount on the Japanese government because the number of cases is starting to increase, with the number in Tokyo alone topping 1,000 - still low compared with the United States, countries in Europe and China, where thousands have died. As a result, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expected to declare a state of emergency this week. The pandemic has caused developed economies to virtually close down as governments attempt social distancing policies to stem the spreading of the virus. The dollar continues to march higher against many emerging currencies, with the Indonesian rupiah and the Mexican peso among the worst hit. In addition to their own problems with the medical emergency, many emerging markets are desperately short of dollars to repay maturing debts, now that U.S. consumers and businesses are no longer pumping dollars out into the world economy. The U.S. dollar inched up in Asia on Monday as cities hard hit by the COVID-19 virus reported a decline in fatalities over the weekend. But Friday’s report of a 701,000 reduction in U.S. non-farm payrolls put a damper on investor expectations as the economic damage from pandemic-induced lockdowns becomes apparent. The USD/JPY pair flattened earlier losses, gaining 0.42% to 108.92 even as Japan is expected to declare a state of emergency by Tuesday.
  • Oil prices fell on Monday, after Saudi Arabia and Russia delayed a meeting to discuss output cuts that could help alleviate global oversupply as the coronavirus pandemic pummels demand. Late last week, prices surged, with U.S. and Brent contracts posting their largest ever weekly percentage gains due to hopes that OPEC and its allies would strike a deal to cut crude supply worldwide by at least 10 million barrels per day (bpd). Saudi Arabia and Russia were initially set to meet on Monday to discuss output cuts, but that has now been pushed to April 9, after they blamed each other for the collapse of talks in March. The countries are "very, very close" to a deal on cuts, Russia's sovereign wealth fund chief told CNBC. U.S. President Donald Trump has said he will impose tariffs on crude imports if he needed to "protect" U.S. energy workers from the oil price crash that has been exacerbated by the war between Russia and Saudi Arabia over market share. Prices on both sides of the Atlantic marked their worst month on record in March as the coronavirus pandemic crippled demand in a market flooded with supplies. The head of the International Energy Agency has said oil inventories would still rise by 15 million bpd in the second quarter even with output cuts of 10 million bpd. He urged the world's richest economies to discuss broader ways to stabilise oil markets. Still, a move by Saudi Arabia to delay the release of its crude official selling prices indicates it is not eager to flood the market with cheap supplies before a potential agreement, said Robert McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group in Bethesda, Maryland. The kingdom delayed the release until Friday to wait for the outcome of the meeting between OPEC and its allies regarding possible output cuts, a Saudi source told Reuters Indicating the market too is expecting the supply glut to improve, prompt oil prices jumped last week and sharply narrowed their gap with future months . Decades-low prices have already forced producers to cut output, analysts said. Rig counts in the United States fell by 62 last week, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co (N:BRK) said on Friday, marking the biggest weekly drop in five years, as U.S. energy companies slashed spending on new drilling due to a coronavirus-related slump in economic activity and fuel demand. Citi analysts expects the drop in onshore U.S. rigs to accelerate, falling by 425 to 360 rigs by the fourth quarter.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
6th April 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,630-1,636 1,645 1,652-1,660
Silver-XAG 15.00 15.30 16.00-16.35
Crude Oil 30.20-31.00 32.30 33.00-34.00
EURO/USD 1.0850-1.0900 1.1010 1.1050-1.1085
GBP/USD 1.2320-1.2400 1.2500 1.2570-1.2650
USD/JPY 109.40 110.20-110.90 111.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
6th April 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,612-1,600 1,574 1,560-1,547
Silver-XAG 14.40-13.90 13.60 13.00-12.30
Crude Oil 28.75-28.00 27.00 30.20-31.00
EURO/USD 1.0770-1.0700 1.0630 1.0590-1.0530
GBP/USD 1.2250 1.2180-1.2130 1.2050
USD/JPY 108.30-107.50 106.90 106.50-106.00

Intra-Day Strategy (6th April 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1626.11/oz and low of US$1605.94/oz. Gold up 0.311% at US$1618.20/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are below 100DMA (1483) and breakage above will call for 1492. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1620-1546 with risk below 1546, targeting 1630-1636-1655 and 1664-1675. Sell below 1630-1660 keeping stop loss closing above 1660, targeting 1612-1590-1560 and 1546-1536.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,612-1,600
S2     1,574
S3     1,560-1,547
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,630-1,636
R2     1,645
R3     1,652-1,660

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.609

Buy
20-DMA   1581.31 Buy
50-DMA  

1592.75

Buy
100-DMA   1547.90 Buy
200-DMA   1512.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   51.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$14.53/oz and low of US$14.25/oz settled down by 0.545% at US$14.39/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 100DMA (17.55), breakage below will lead to 17.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.40-11.75 targeting 14.50-14.80-15.30 and 16.00-16.35; stop breakage below 11.75. Sell below 15.00-16.35 with stop loss above 16.35; targeting 14.40-13.90-13.60 and 13.00-12.50-11.75.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.40-13.90
S2     13.60
S3     13.00-12.30

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.00
R2     15.30
R3     16.00-16.35

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.250 Buy
20-DMA   14.23 Sell
50-DMA   16.32 Sell
100-DMA   16.86 Sell
200-DMA   16.99 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   37.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.150 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US30.56/bbl, intraday low of US$25.33/bbl and settled up by 14.86% to close at US$30.33/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 57.76 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 58.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 28.75-25.00 with risk daily closing below 25.00 and targeting 30.20-31.00-32.30 and 33.00-34.00. Sell in between 30.20-34.50 with stop loss at 34.50; targeting 28.75-28.00 and 27.00-26.20-25.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     28.75-28.00
S2     27.00
S3     30.20-31.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     30.20-31.00
R2     32.30
R3     33.00-34.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.911 Sell
20-DMA   26.59 Sell
50-DMA   40.83 Sell
100-DMA   49.82 Sell
200-DMA   52.87 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   64.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -6.327 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.0772/EUR, high of US$1.0864/EUR and settled the day down by 0.510% to close at US$1.0800/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0770-1.0530 with risk below 1.0530, targeting 1.10850-1.0900-1.1010 and 1.1100-1.1150. Sell below 1.0850-1.1150 targeting 1.0770-1.0700-1.0630 and 1.0590-1.0530 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0770-1.0700
S2     1.0630
S3     1.0590-1.0530

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0850-1.0900
R2     1.1010
R3     1.1050-1.1085

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.673 Buy
20-DMA   1.0966 Buy
50-DMA   1.0979 Buy
100-DMA   1.1037 Buy
200-DMA   1.1068 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   10.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.004 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2204/GBP, high of US$1.2403/GBP and settled the day up by 1.018% to close at US$1.2269/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2924) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2320-1.2700 with targets at 1.2250 and 1.2180-1.2130-1.2000 stop-loss should be below 1.2570. Buy above 1.2250-1.2000 with targets 1.2320-1.2400-1.2500 and 1.2570-1.2650 with stop loss closing below 1.1290.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2250
S2     1.2180-1.2130
S3     1.2050

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2320-1.2400
R2     1.2500
R3     1.2570-1.2650

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.801

Buy
20-DMA   1.2172 Buy
50-DMA   1.2646 Buy
100-DMA   1.2847 Buy
200-DMA   1.2652 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   46.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY107.79/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.08/USD and settled the day up by 0.611% at JPY108.53/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.40-111.50 with risk above 111.50 targeting 108.30-107.50-106.90 and 106.00-105.50. Long positions above 108.30-105.00 with targets of 109.40-110.20-110.90 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.30-107.50
S2     106.90
S3     106.50-106.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.40
R2     110.20-110.90
R3     111.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.904 Buy
20-DMA   108.23 Sell
50-DMA   108.75 Sell
100-DMA   108.95 Sell
200-DMA   108.31 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   69.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.161 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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