AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stock markets rallied for a second day on Tuesday and riskier currencies rose, on tentative signs the coronavirus crisis may be levelling off in New York and receding in Europe. Gains, however, lacked Monday’s momentum as the number of coronavirus cases kept rising globally and an economic crash on a scale not seen for generations looms large The United States is bracing for its toughest week yet as the death toll climbs above 10,000 while across the Atlantic, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has entered intensive care after his COVID-19 symptoms worsened. Oil rose on hopes the world’s biggest producers will agree to cut output as the virus pandemic crushes demand, while the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose 1%. Worldwide, the virus has infected more than 1.3 million people and killed over 74,000, and the numbers are rising even as swathes of the globe are under lockdown. Hope stems though from hardest-hit Italy and Spain, where authorities have started looking ahead to easing lockdowns after steady falls in coronavirus-related fatality rates. In New York, the number of deaths each day has also steadied while hospitalisations, admissions to intensive care and the number of patients put on ventilators all declined. Moves in the currency and bond markets were more muted, weighed by worries that lifting lockdowns too soon could drive a fresh wave of infections and caution about the economic fallout. The U.S. dollar, which has soaked up safety flows for weeks, slipped on most majors. The United States has reported skyrocketing unemployment as lockdowns drive layoffs and is bracing for what one official called the “peak death week” Roughly twice as many people a day are now dying in the United States as in Spain or Italy, and hospitals report chaotic shortages of beds, ventilators and protective gear.
  • The U.S. dollar was down in Asia on Tuesday morning as investor risk sentiment improved. The United States, Italy and Spain reported falling COVID-19 case numbers over the weekend. The GBP/USD pair gained 0.3% to 1.2266 even as Prime Minister Boris Johnson was moved into intensive care overnight due to his worsening COVID-19 symptoms. The Reserve Bank of Australia prepares to announce its interest rate decision later today, and the NZD/USD pair rose 0.47% to 0.5958. The two Antipodean currencies also benefitted from the increased investor risk appetite as risk currencies. The USD/CNY pair lost 0.14% to 7.0808 as Chinese employees returned to work following a holiday yesterday. The dollar has been on the back foot Tuesday, with risk sentiment boosted by further evidence that the virus has peaked in some countries in Europe, while the U.S. has also seen scattered evidence of improvement. Spain’s daily death toll fell on Monday for the fourth day running to 637, its lowest level since March 24, while Italy reported 525 deaths on Sunday, the fewest since March 19 (although deaths ticked up again on Monday). In New York, the epicenter of the outbreak in the U.S., Governor Andrew Cuomo said Monday that the state’s death rate has been ‘effectively flat for the last two days.’ The euro will be in focus later as eurozone finance ministers hold a teleconference call to discuss strategies for funding the region's policy response to the virus. Various ideas and schemes are competing for attention, but the desire of Spain and Italy for jointly-issued and guaranteed 'coronabonds' is likely to be rejected by Germany, the Netherlands and others. The price of oil has become another factor impacting the strength of the dollar. The dollar also gave up ground against most emerging market currencies, with the Chinese yuan rising around half a percent.
  • Oil prices gained on Tuesday as hopes rose that the world's biggest producers of crude will agree to cut output as the coronavirus pandemic crushes demand, even as analysts warn a global recession may be deeper than expected. The world's main oil producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia are likely to agree to cut output at a meeting on Thursday, although that would depend on the United States doing its share, sources told Reuters. But the threat of a major recession hangs over the market due to the halt of much economic activity as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, with half the global population under some form of lockdown or social distancing measures. Worldwide oil demand has dropped by as much as 30%, or about 30 million barrels per day, coinciding with moves by Saudi Arabia and Russia to flood markets with extra supply after an agreement on withholding output fell apart Oil prices slumped on Monday after Saudi Arabia and Russia delayed a meeting to agree on output cuts till Thursday. The OPEC and other producers including Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, had been curtailing production in recent years amid a rapid expansion of U.S. output that made the country the world's biggest crude producer There are also questions over whether the U.S. would join any coordinated action. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that OPEC had not asked him to push domestic oil producers to cut their production to buttress prices. He also said that U.S. output was declining in response to falling prices. Coordinated action by U.S. oil producers to reduce output would typically be a violation of antitrust laws. A global recession that economists in a Reuters poll say is under way will likely be more serious than expected a few weeks ago due to the viral outbreak, the latest survey showed.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
7th April 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,660-1.669 1,674 1,690-1,704
Silver-XAG 15.30 16.00-16.35 17.00
Crude Oil 30.20-31.00 32.30 33.00-34.00
EURO/USD 1.0900 1.1010 1.1050-1.1085
GBP/USD 1.2400 1.2500 1.2570-1.2650
USD/JPY 109.40 110.20-110.90 111.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
7th April 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,645-1,636 1,630 1,612-1,600
Silver-XAG 15.00 14.40-13.90 13.60
Crude Oil 28.75-28.00 27.00 26.10-25.30
EURO/USD 1.0850--1.0770 1.0700 1.0630-1.0590
GBP/USD 1.2320--1.2250 1.2180 1.2130-1.2050
USD/JPY 108.30-107.50 106.90 106.50-106.00

Intra-Day Strategy (7th April 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1669.67/oz and low of US$1608.66/oz. Gold up 0.485% at US$1659.68/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1596) and breakage below will call for 1550. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1620-1546 with risk below 1546, targeting 1630-1636-1655 and 1664-1675. Sell below 1630-1660 keeping stop loss closing above 1660, targeting 1612-1590-1560 and 1546-1536.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,645-1,636
S2     1,630
S3     1,612-1,600
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,660-1.669
R2     1,674
R3     1,690-1,704

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.609

Buy
20-DMA   1581.31 Buy
50-DMA  

1592.75

Buy
100-DMA   1547.90 Buy
200-DMA   1512.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   51.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$15.05/oz and low of US$14.22/oz settled up by 3.85% at US$14.94/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 100DMA (17.55), breakage below will lead to 17.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.40-11.75 targeting 14.50-14.80-15.30 and 16.00-16.35; stop breakage below 11.75. Sell below 15.00-16.35 with stop loss above 16.35; targeting 14.40-13.90-13.60 and 13.00-12.50-11.75.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.00
S2     14.40-13.90
S3     13.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.30
R2     16.00-16.35
R3     17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.250 Buy
20-DMA   14.23 Sell
50-DMA   16.32 Sell
100-DMA   16.86 Sell
200-DMA   16.99 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   37.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.150 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US30.21/bbl, intraday low of US$26.96/bbl and settled up by 2.50% to close at US$28.71/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 28.75-25.00 with risk daily closing below 25.00 and targeting 30.20-31.00-32.30 and 33.00-34.00. Sell in between 30.20-34.50 with stop loss at 34.50; targeting 28.75-28.00 and 27.00-26.20-25.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     28.75-28.00
S2     27.00
S3     26.10-25.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     30.20-31.00
R2     32.30
R3     33.00-34.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.911 Sell
20-DMA   26.40 Buy
50-DMA   39.93 Sell
100-DMA   49.29 Sell
200-DMA   52.59 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   89.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.327 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.0767/EUR, high of US$1.0834/EUR and settled the day down by 0.147% to close at US$1.0791/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1040), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0770-1.0530 with risk below 1.0530, targeting 1.10850-1.0900-1.1010 and 1.1100-1.1150. Sell below 1.0850-1.1150 targeting 1.0770-1.0700-1.0630 and 1.0590-1.0530 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0850--1.0770
S2     1.0700
S3     1.0630-1.0590

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0900
R2     1.1010
R3     1.1050-1.1085

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.562 Buy
20-DMA   1.0944 Buy
50-DMA   1.0976 Buy
100-DMA   1.1037 Buy
200-DMA   1.1065 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   16.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.004 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2209/GBP, high of US$1.2326/GBP and settled the day up by 0.112% to close at US$1.2230/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 100DMA (1.2924) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2400-1.2700 with targets at 1.2700 and 1.2320-.12250-1.2180 and 1.2130-1.2000 stop-loss should be below 1.2700. Buy above 1.2320-1.2050 with targets 1.2400-1.2500 and 1.2570-1.2650 with stop loss closing below 1.1290.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2320--1.2250
S2     1.2180
S3     1.2130-1.2050

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2400
R2     1.2500
R3     1.2570-1.2650

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.801

Buy
20-DMA   1.2142 Buy
50-DMA   1.2631 Buy
100-DMA   1.2841 Buy
200-DMA   1.2650 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY108.33/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.37/USD and settled the day up by 0.80% at JPY109.20/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (107.70), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.40-111.50 with risk above 111.50 targeting 108.30-107.50-106.90 and 106.00-105.50. Long positions above 108.30-105.00 with targets of 109.40-110.20-110.90 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.30-107.50
S2     106.90
S3     106.50-106.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.40
R2     110.20-110.90
R3     111.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.904 Buy
20-DMA   108.23 Sell
50-DMA   108.75 Sell
100-DMA   108.95 Sell
200-DMA   108.31 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   69.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.161 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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