AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar was largely unchanged Thursday, with activity in the foreign exchange market subdued as investors hold fire amid abundant near term event risk. The most important data release of the day will be the U.S. weekly jobless claims, at 8:30 AM ET (12:30 GMT), which has become the go-to economic indicator to capture the latest impact of the virus. Economists are expecting that claims eased off a little from the huge 6.65 million number the week before, but will still post a rise of 5.25 million, according to forecasts compiled by Investing.com. They will join the almost 10 million Americans who have submitted claims since the end of March. Also of interest will be the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies as they attempt to balance an oversupplied oil market following the slump in global demand on the back of the coronavirus outbreak. Historically, the price of oil is inversely related to the price of the dollar, as when the greenback is strong you need less to buy a barrel of oil, However, the price of oil has also become a function of the demand destruction caused by the Covid-19 outbreak - the more the global economy has shut down, the more oil has fallen and the more the dollar has appreciated as a safe haven. If the major oil producers can get together to agree to cut supply, potentially raising the price of crude, the dollar could be adversely impacted. Finally, eurozone finance ministers are getting together again to try and agree the best way a regional strategy for financing crisis mitigation measures. Disagreements persist over whether to issue joint debt known as ‘coronabonds’ as part of a wider recovery plan. The pound continued its climb against the dollar on Thursday amid a report that U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson had moved out of intensitive care. "The prime minister has been moved this evening from intensive care back to the ward, where he will receive close monitoring during the early phase of his recovery," Sky News reported, citing a Number 10 spokesman. Johnson was moved into intensive care earlier this week after his Covid-19 symptoms worsened.
  • Commodity currencies slipped against their safe-haven rivals such as the dollar and yen on Monday as a record output cut agreed by OPEC and other oil producing nations failed to offset broader concerns about slumping global demand. The greenback drifted higher against its Australian and New Zealand counterparts, widely seen as barometers for market risk, in a sign investors remain concerned about the consumption outlook for commodities. Financial markets remain on edge over the spread of the novel coronavirus as severe restrictions on personal movement drag the global economy into a deep recession. Trading could be somewhat subdued as financial markets in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and Britain are closed for the Easter Monday holiday. Major oil producers agreed to the output cuts on Sunday to prop up oil markets as the pandemic severely curtailed global demand. Oil prices had gone into freefall on worries about the virus and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, which was seen straining the budgets of oil producers and hammering the U.S. shale industry. While oil futures erased early losses to trade higher in Asia, trading in currency markets highlighted investor trepidation over the prevailing uncertainty in markets. Other currency traders pointed to a decline in U.S. stock futures as a supportive factor for risk-off trades. The cautious mood boosted the yen, which is often sought as a safe-haven during times of market and economic stress because of Japan's current account surplus. China is expected to release export data for March on Tuesday, which will be closely watched for signs of the pandemic's damage on the global economy.
  • Benchmark Brent oil prices turned negative on Monday, erasing gains made after major producers agreed record global output cuts, pressured by concerns that the cuts will not be sufficient to reduce a glut as the coronavirus pandemic hammers demand. After four days of wrangling, the OPEC+ group of oil producers, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other countries, agreed to cut output by 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in May and June, representing about 10% of global supply. U.S. President Donald Trump praised the oil supply deal, saying it would save jobs in the U.S. energy industry. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates volunteered to make cuts even deeper than those agreed, which would effectively bring down OPEC+ supply by 12.5 million bpd from current levels, the Saudi energy minister said. Saudi Arabia on Monday set its May official selling pricing (OSP) for crude, selling oil to Asia more cheaply and keeping prices flat for Europe while raising them for the United States. Meanwhile, analysts cast doubts on producers' likely compliance with the production cuts. Even at full compliance, demand weakness concerns capped oil price gains. Worldwide fuel consumption is down roughly 30% because of the COVID-19 pandemic that has killed more than 100,000 people worldwide and kept entire nations on lockdown. The deal had been delayed since Thursday after Mexico balked at the cuts it was asked to make. The OPEC+ group met on Sunday, resulting in a cut four times deeper than the previous record reduction in 2008. OPEC+ has also said it wants producers outside the group - such as the United States, Canada, Brazil and Norway - to cut a further 5 million bpd.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
13th April 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,690-1,703 1,720 1,729-1.740
Silver-XAG 15.60-16.10 16.70 17.00-17.40
Crude Oil 28.00-28.50 29.00 30.50-31.00
EURO/USD 1.0970-1.1030 1.1060 1.1090-1.1150
GBP/USD 1.2500-1.2590 1.2645 1.2700-1.2740
USD/JPY 109.40 110.20-110.90 111.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
13th April 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,674-1,660 1,645 1,636-1,630
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.00 14.40 13.90-13.60
Crude Oil 27.60-27.00 25.90 28.00-28.50
EURO/USD 1.0900-1.0850 1.0770 1.0700-1.0630
GBP/USD 1.2400-1.2320 1.2250 1.2180-1.2130
USD/JPY 108.30-107.50 106.90 106.50-106.00

Intra-Day Strategy (13th April 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1690.34/oz and low of US$1642.47/oz. Gold up 2.38% at US$1682.72/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1596) and breakage below will call for 1550. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1674-1630 with risk below 1630, targeting 1690-1704 and 1,720-1740. Sell below 1690-1720 keeping stop loss closing above 1720, targeting 1674-1660-1645 and 1636-1612.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,674-1,660
S2     1,645
S3     1,636-1,630
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,690-1,703
R2     1,720
R3     1,729-1.740

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

62.609

Buy
20-DMA   1586.31 Buy
50-DMA  

1596.75

Buy
100-DMA   1555.90 Buy
200-DMA   1517.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   77.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$15.52/oz and low of US$14.84/oz settled up by 2.86% at US$15.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 100DMA (17.55), breakage below will lead to 17.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.30-13.00 targeting 15.60-16.10 and 16.70-17.00-17.40; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 15.60-17.40 with stop loss above 17.40; targeting 15.30-14.40 and 13.90-13.60-13.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.30-15.00
S2     14.40
S3     13.90-13.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60-16.10
R2     16.70
R3     17.00-17.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.250 Buy
20-DMA   13.94 Sell
50-DMA   16.15 Sell
100-DMA   16.79 Sell
200-DMA   16.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   75.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.374 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US32.14/bbl, intraday low of US$27.43/bbl and settled down by 7.48% to close at US$27.76/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 27.60-23.50 with risk daily closing below 23.50 and targeting 28.00-28.50-29.00 and 30.20-31.00-32.30. Sell in between 28.00-32.30 with stop loss at 32.50; targeting 27.00-26.20-25.30 and 24.90-23.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     27.60-27.00
S2     25.90
S3     28.00-28.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     28.00-28.50
R2     29.00
R3     30.50-31.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.117 Sell
20-DMA   25.91 Buy
50-DMA   38.90 Sell
100-DMA   48.72 Sell
200-DMA   52.29 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   63.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.053 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.0918/EUR, high of US$1.0951/EUR and settled the day up by 0.431% to close at US$1.0935/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0900-1.0630 with risk below 1.0630, targeting 1.0950-1.1030 and 1.1060-1.1150. Sell below 1.0950-1.1150 targeting 1.0900-1.0850-1.0770 and 1.0700-1.0630 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0900-1.0850
S2     1.0770
S3     1.0700-1.0630

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0970-1.1030
R2     1.1060
R3     1.1090-1.1150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.562 Buy
20-DMA   1.0904 Buy
50-DMA   1.0968 Buy
100-DMA   1.1031 Buy
200-DMA   1.1060 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   75.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0047 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2431/GBP, high of US$1.2485/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0048% to close at US$1.2452/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2500-1.2740 with targets at 1.2400-1.2320-1.2250 and 1.2180-1.2130 stop-loss should be below 1.2740. Buy above 1.2400-1.2130 with targets 1.2500-1.2590-1.2650 and 1.2700-1.2740 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2400-1.2320
S2     1.2250
S3     1.2180-1.2130

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2500-1.2590
R2     1.2645
R3     1.2700-1.2740

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.288

Buy
20-DMA   1.2132 Buy
50-DMA   1.2590 Sell
100-DMA   1.2826 Sell
200-DMA   1.2647 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   83.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY108.31/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.58/USD and settled the day up by 0.023% at JPY108.45/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.40-111.50 with risk above 111.50 targeting 108.30-107.50-106.90 and 106.00-105.50. Long positions above 108.30-105.00 with targets of 109.40-110.20-110.90 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.30-107.50
S2     106.90
S3     106.50-106.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.40
R2     110.20-110.90
R3     111.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.904 Buy
20-DMA   108.23 Buy
50-DMA   108.75 Sell
100-DMA   108.95 Sell
200-DMA   108.31 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   52.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.161 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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