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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks gained on Friday as President Donald Trump’s plans to gradually re-open the U.S. economy outweighed concerns over data that showed China suffered its worst economic contraction on record due to the coronavirus outbreak. Data from China showed the world’s second-largest economy shrank for the first time since at least 1992 because of the coronavirus outbreak and tough containment measures. Gross domestic product contracted 6.8% in the quarter year-on-year, slightly more than expected, and 9.8% from the previous quarter. Retail sales also fell more than expected in March, but industrial output only dipped slightly, suggesting its manufacturing sector at least is recovering more quickly. However, the Chinese data and other forecasts that said the world is in its worst recession in decades caused barely a ripple in Asian shares as investors focus instead on whether the pandemic is peaking and how soon governments will start to ease lockdowns which have crippled business and consumer activity. Some analysts cautioned, however, that it is premature to say the health crisis is under control. Shares in Asia tracked gains on Wall Street, as hopes that the United States will roll back restrictions on businesses boosted risk appetite. Joining a handful of other governments that are restarting their economies, Trump said on Thursday U.S. state governors can re-open businesses in a staggered, three-stage process. Some analysts remain sceptical of Trump’s plan, but the equity markets took the comments as a sign that the worst of the pandemic may be over. Equity markets also took the China data in stride partly because it has contained the virus and managed to get large parts of its economy back up and running from a standstill in February.
  • The U.S. dollar was down on Friday from its week-long high in the previous session as investors’ risk appetite got a boost. Investors retreated from the dollar, traditionally viewed as a safe haven, as U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at the reopening of the U.S. economy overnight as he briefed U.S. governors on guidelines. Risk sentiment also received a boost from Gilead Sciences Inc (NASDAQ:GILD) announcing overnight that clinical trials of its antiviral drug remdesivir showed promising results in treating the COVID-19 virus. The dollar fell on Friday as a news report on signs of success in a COVID-19 treatment drug trial as well as early plans to re-open the U.S. economy drove fresh optimism and risk appetite. Even the first drop in Chinese economic growth since quarterly records began in 1992 did not dent the mood as investors sought silver linings in signs of a rebound in industrial production. The Australian and New Zealand dollars led gains, with both rising about 0.8%, while the pound and euro also rose to recoup some of the past two days' losses. Medical news website STAT, citing a recorded discussion between doctors involved in a clinical trial, said most of 125 patients given Gilead's (O:GILD) remdesivir drug at a hospital in Chicago had recovered and been discharged. Gilead said anecdotal reports do not provide the data needed to determine the safety or efficacy of remdesivir as a treatment for COVID-19 and that it expects more data will be available at the end of the month. The dollar has closely tracked risk sentiment through the coronavirus crisis and remains at elevated levels as the safety of cash in the world's reserve currency stays in demand. Friday's dip reverses two days of gains on warnings of a Great Depression-style slump in the world economy, though it is set to end the week steady as optimism returns. U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday announced guidelines for a return to work in the world's biggest economy - a gradual, three-stage process dependent on robust virus testing and subject to state governors' discretion. But the crisis has already turned some 22 million Americans out of work, and further market moves were capped by Gilead's staid response and more worries on the economic outlook. China's economy shrank 6.8% in the first quarter, the first reversal since at least 1992, as the coronavirus outbreak paralysed production and spending.
  • Oil was stuck near $20 a barrel and set for a second weekly loss after a wave of gloomy demand forecasts outweighed optimism that a deal from the world’s biggest producers would alleviate virus-led demand losses. OPEC expects demand for its crude to fall to the lowest in three decades as the coronavirus outbreak freezes the global economy, the group said Thursday. That followed a prediction from the International Energy Agency that 2020 could be the worst year in the history of the oil market. Futures slumped to an 18-year low this week, even after a historic agreement to curb supply. In a joint statement Thursday, Saudi Arabia and Russia said they will “continue to closely monitor the oil market and are prepared to take further measures jointly with OPEC+ and other producers if these are deemed necessary.” Stockpiles across the world continue to expand as consumption of everything from gasoline to jet fuel crashes due to lockdowns to stem the outbreak. The Trump administration is considering paying American companies to leave crude in the ground, while ConocoPhillips is the latest energy major to announce deep cuts to its operations, slashing more than a quarter of its North American production and halting all U.S. fracking. OPEC estimates that just under 20 million barrels a day will be needed on average from the group during the second quarter, according to its monthly report. The cartel hasn’t pumped this little crude since early 1989. OPEC and its allies have agreed to curb output by 10% starting next month, but even with full compliance, the market is still likely to be oversupplied.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
17th April 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,720-1,729 1.740 1,755
Silver-XAG 15.60-16.10 16.70 17.00-17.40
Crude Oil 27.00-28.00 29.00 29.50-30.50
EURO/USD 1.0900-1.0970 1.1030 1.1060-1.1090
GBP/USD 1.2550-1.2590 1.2645 1.2700-1.2740
USD/JPY 108.30-109.40 110.20 110.90-111.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
17th April 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,704-1,690 1,674 1,660-1,645
Silver-XAG 15.00 14.40 13.90-13.60
Crude Oil 26.00-25.60 25.00 23.60-23.00
EURO/USD 1.0820-1.0770 1.0700 1.0630
GBP/USD 1.2470-1.2400 1.2320 1.2250-1.2180
USD/JPY 107.50-106.90 106.20 105.60-105.00

Intra-Day Strategy (17th April 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1738.64/oz and low of US$1708.08/oz. Gold up 0.124% at US$1717.31/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1596) and breakage below will call for 1550. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1704-1645 with risk below 1645, targeting 1,720-1740 and 1755-1774. Sell below 1720-1774 keeping stop loss closing above 1774, targeting 1705-1690-1674 and 1660-1645.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,704-1,690
S2     1,674
S3     1,660-1,645
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,720-1,729
R2     1.740
R3     1,755

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

66.609

Buy
20-DMA   1605.31 Buy
50-DMA  

1604.75

Buy
100-DMA   1560.90 Buy
200-DMA   1520.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   88.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$15.58/oz and low of US$15.19/oz settled up by 0.356% at US$15.49/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 100DMA (17.55), breakage below will lead to 17.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.00-13.00 targeting 15.60-16.10 and 16.70-17.00-17.40; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 15.60-17.40 with stop loss above 17.40; targeting 15.30-14.40 and 13.90-13.60-13.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.00
S2     14.40
S3     13.90-13.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60-16.10
R2     16.70
R3     17.00-17.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.250 Buy
20-DMA   13.94 Sell
50-DMA   16.15 Sell
100-DMA   16.79 Sell
200-DMA   16.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   75.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.374 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US26.93/bbl, intraday low of US$24.88/bbl and settled down by 2.28% to close at US$25.91/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 26.20-23.00 with risk daily closing below 23.00 and targeting 27.00-28.00-29.50 and 30.20-31.00-31.50. Sell in between 27.00-30.30 with stop loss at 30.50; targeting 29.00-28.00-27.60 and 27.00-26.20-25.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     26.00-25.60
S2     25.00
S3     23.60-23.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     27.00-28.00
R2     29.00
R3     29.50-30.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.117 Sell
20-DMA   25.55 Buy
50-DMA   37.52 Sell
100-DMA   47.81 Sell
200-DMA   51.84 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   12.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.053 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.0815/EUR, high of US$1.0910/EUR and settled the day down by 0.623% to close at US$1.0838/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0900-1.0630 with risk below 1.0630, targeting 1.0970-1.1030 and 1.1060-1.1150. Sell below 1.0950-1.1150 targeting 1.0900-1.0850-1.0770 and 1.0700-1.0630 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0820-1.0770
S2     1.0700
S3     1.0630

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0900-1.0970
R2     1.1030
R3     1.1060-1.1090

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.562 Buy
20-DMA   1.0900 Buy
50-DMA   1.0960 Buy
100-DMA   1.1026 Buy
200-DMA   1.1054 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   53.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0047 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2407/GBP, high of US$1.2526/GBP and settled the day down by 0.416% to close at US$1.2455/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2590-1.2740 with targets at 1.2500-1.2400-1.2320 and 1.2250-1.2180-1.2130 stop-loss should be below 1.2740. Buy above 1.2500-1.2130 with targets 1.2500-1.2590-1.2650 and 1.2700-1.2740 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2470-1.2400
S2     1.2320
S3     1.2250-1.2180

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2550-1.2590
R2     1.2645
R3     1.2700-1.2740

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

53.554

Buy
20-DMA   1.2260 Buy
50-DMA   1.2554 Sell
100-DMA   1.2812 Sell
200-DMA   1.2647 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   92.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY107.15/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.07/USD and settled the day up by 0.464% at JPY107.90/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.40-111.50 with risk above 111.50 targeting 109.00-108.30-107.50-106.90 and 106.00-105.50. Long positions above 108.30-105.00 with targets of 109.40-110.20-110.90 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.50-106.90
S2     106.20
S3     105.60-105.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.30-109.40
R2     110.20
R3     110.90-111.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.904 Buy
20-DMA   108.23 Buy
50-DMA   108.75 Sell
100-DMA   108.95 Sell
200-DMA   108.31 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   52.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.161 Sell

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