AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar has been in demand Friday, as disappointment surrounding a trial for an antiviral drug to combat Covid-19 deflated hopes for a quick breakthrough in bringing the pandemic under control. Doubts have emerged over the efficacy of Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD) Sciences’s antiviral drug remdesivir in treating the Covid-19, after the Financial Times reported overnight that it had failed its first randomized clinical trial. Gilead has disputed the report, saying the study was “terminated early due to low enrollment,” and thus “the study results are inconclusive.” However, this has resulted in the dollar being sought as a safe haven as the drug was previously thought to be one of the best prospects for treating the virus. The euro has also weakened against the greenback as after EU leaders agreed few details about the shape of post-crisis recovery plan would be financed - although they did sign off on a pre-agreed €500 billion euro emergency financial package. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that the European Union's economy could shrink by as much as 15% this year as a result of the pandemic. Further signs of the stress the union is under could come later Friday as rating agency S&P could downgrade its investment rating on Italy to just above junk status - meaning that the cost of borrowing for this heavily indebted nation could rise as it tries to recover from being especially hard hit by the coronavirus outbreak.
  • The dollar was headed for its best week since early April on Friday, as tumbling oil prices weighed on commodity currencies and division over Europe's emergency fund dragged on the euro. Morning moves were modest and led by a drift lower in the Australian and New Zealand dollars as traders were unnerved by inconclusive results from a Gilead antiviral drug trial and looking to headlines for further direction. Both had rallied through those levels overnight as markets shrugged off dire economic news in Europe and the United States and commodity prices forged ahead. The euro fell to a one-month low of $1.0756 on Thursday, and was drifting back to test that level on Friday after the European Union agreed to build a trillion euro emergency fund, but left the details for later. With Italy and Spain hit far harder than Germany by the crisis, old enmities have surfaced across a bloc which faces a cut to output as deep as 15% according to the European Central Bank. Preliminary goods-orders data in the United States and a German business sentiment survey due later on Friday are unlikely to improve investors' mood - especially as the global recovery begins to look increasingly rocky. The dollar rose on Friday morning in Asia, ending the week with its best performance since April. The U.S. reported 4.427 million initial jobless claims for the past week overnight, with an unprecedented 26 million people losing their jobs since late March. Meanwhile, the Financial Times said on Thursday that Gilead Sciences' (NASDAQ:GILD) antiviral drug remdesivir failed its first randomized clinical trials The company was testing the drug’s efficacy in treating the COVID-19 virus and have denied that the tests were a flop. But news of the failure was enough to spook investors, who were closely watching the trial’s progress.
  • Oil prices climbed on Friday, adding to gains from earlier sessions after producers such as Kuwait said they would move to cut output and the United States approved another package to cope with the turmoil caused by the coronavirus outbreak. Barring a sharp jump later in the session, though, prices are heading for their eighth weekly loss in the last nine, capping one of the most tumultuous weeks in the history of oil trading. Brent is headed for a more than 20% loss this week, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) set for a fall of around near 8%. Under a deal agreed between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Counties (OPEC) and associated producers including Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, output cuts of 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) are due to kick in from May. But Kuwait's state news agency KUNA said on Thursday the OPEC producer will begin cutting supplies to international markets without waiting for the official start of the deal. Azerbaijan's Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli oil project will also have to cut output sharply from May onwards to fulfil the country's commitments under the deal, four sources told Reuters On the demand side, in China where the coronavirus outbreak started late last year, analysts said fuel sales should pick up in the second quarter as the government eases curbs to contain the pandemic. Meanwhile, U.S. legislators approved a nearly $500 billion bill for relief from the pandemic, providing support to small businesses and hospitals. The package raises U.S. spending on the crisis to nearly $3 trillion. Still, the global economy may see a record contraction this year, according to a Reuters poll. Global oil prices have plunged because of excess supplies and tumbling demand due to the coronavirus crisis. U.S. crude prices plunged into negative territory this week - meaning suppliers had to pay people to take oil - due to lack of storage space, prompting moves by operators to halt output. Shut-ins have been particularly swift in North Dakota, which produced more than 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in 2019, making it the second-largest U.S. producing state after Texas.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
24th April 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,729 1,740 1,747-1,760
Silver-XAG 15.60-16.10 16.70 17.00-17.50
Crude Oil 18.00-19.00 20.50 21.00-21.80
EURO/USD 1.0820-1.0900 1.0970 1.1030-1.1060
GBP/USD 1.2400-1.2470 1.2550 1.2590-1.2645
USD/JPY 108.30-109.40 110.20 110.90-111.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
24th April 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,720-1,704 1,690 1,674-1,660
Silver-XAG 15.00-14.40 13.90 13.60-12.90
Crude Oil 16.30-15.50 14.03 12.10-11.50
EURO/USD 1.0750-1.0700 1.0630 1.0570-1.0500
GBP/USD 1.2320-1.2250 1.2180 1.2100-1.2050
USD/JPY 107.50-106.90 106.20 105.60-105.00

Intra-Day Strategy (24th April 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1738.80/oz and low of US$1707.06/oz. Gold up 1,1074% at US$1730.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1596) and breakage below will call for 1550. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1720-1645 with risk below 1645, targeting 1720-1729 and 1740-1755-1774. Sell below 1720-1774 keeping stop loss closing above 1774, targeting 1705-1690-1674 and 1660-1645.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,720-1,704
S2     1,690
S3     1,674-1,660
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,729
R2     1,740
R3     1,747-1,760

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.609

Buy
20-DMA   1657.31 Buy
50-DMA  

1620.94

Buy
100-DMA   1574.80 Buy
200-DMA   1529.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -27.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$15.43/oz and low of US$14.94/oz settled up by 1.083% at US$15.21/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 100DMA (17.55), breakage below will lead to 17.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.40-13.00 targeting 15.00-15.60-16.10 and 16.70-17.00-17.40; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 15.00-17.40 with stop loss above 17.40; targeting 14.40 and 13.90-13.60-13.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.00-14.40
S2     13.90
S3     13.60-12.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60-16.10
R2     16.70
R3     17.00-17.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.600 Buy
20-DMA   14.86 Buy
50-DMA   15.67 Sell
100-DMA   16.62 Sell
200-DMA   16.99 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   48.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.374 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US19.453/bbl, intraday low of US$15.03/bbl and settled up by 11.53% to close at US$17.98/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 16.30-12.10 with risk daily closing below 11.50 and targeting 18.00-19.00 and 20.50-21.00-21.80. Sell in between 18.00-21.60 with stop loss at 21.60; targeting 16.30-15.50-14.05 and 12.10-11.50-10.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     16.30-15.50
S2     14.03
S3     12.10-11.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     18.00-19.00
R2     20.50
R3     21.00-21.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   32.117 Sell
20-DMA   24.19 Buy
50-DMA   33.80 Sell
100-DMA   45.56 Sell
200-DMA   50.65 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   39.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.943 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.0755/EUR, high of US$1.0846/EUR and settled the day down by 0.427% to close at US$1.0775/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0700-1.0570 with risk below 1.0570, targeting 1.0820-1.10900-1.0970 and 1.1030-1.1060. Sell below 1.0770-1.1060 targeting 1.0700-1.0630 and 1.0570-1.0500 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0750-1.0700
S2     1.0630
S3     1.0570-1.0500

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0820-1.0900
R2     1.0970
R3     1.1030-1.1060

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.562 Buy
20-DMA   1.0900 Buy
50-DMA   1.0960 Buy
100-DMA   1.1026 Buy
200-DMA   1.1054 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   53.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0047 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2306/GBP, high of US$1.2413/GBP and settled the day up by 0.107% to close at US$1.2343/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2400-1.2740 with targets at 1.2320-1.2250-1.2180 and 1.2130-1.2050 stop-loss should be below 1.2740. Buy above 1.2320-1.2050 with targets 1.2400.1.2470-1.2500 and 1.2590-1.2650-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2320-1.2250
S2     1.2180
S3     1.2100-1.2050

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2400-1.2470
R2     1.2550
R3     1.2590-1.2645

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.554

Buy
20-DMA   1.2379 Buy
50-DMA   1.2525 Sell
100-DMA   1.2797 Sell
200-DMA   1.2646 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   17.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY107.34/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.03/USD and settled the day down by 0.175% at JPY107.54/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.40-111.50 with risk above 111.50 targeting 109.00-108.30-107.50-106.90 and 106.00-105.50. Long positions above 108.30-105.00 with targets of 109.40-110.20-110.90 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.50-106.90
S2     106.20
S3     105.60-105.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.30-109.40
R2     110.20
R3     110.90-111.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.904 Buy
20-DMA   108.23 Buy
50-DMA   108.75 Sell
100-DMA   108.95 Sell
200-DMA   108.31 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   52.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.161 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING