AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar was down on Monday morning in Asia, ending its weeks-long rally. Investors flocked to the dollar in recent weeks amid continuing economic turbulence due to the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to safe-haven inflows and a dollar shortage. But some analysts said that the dollar will continue its fall in the long term as the U.S. Federal Reserve eased monetary policy more aggressively compared to other central banks. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair was down 0.13% to 107.35 as the Bank of Japan started its monetary policy meeting on Monday. The Japanese central bank is expected to consider removing limits on bond purchases and easing funding for COVID-19-hit companies. But some investors were doubtful of what the meeting could achieve. Investors will additionally be monitoring news from other central bank meetings this week, with a Fed meeting scheduled to end on Wednesday and Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. Johnson is returning to work on Monday after battling COVID-19. The dollar traded in a narrow range Friday, as weaker economic data failed to trigger a meaningful move in either direction. But the greenback remained set to post a second-straight win thanks to strong gains against both the euro and sterling this week. U.S. durable goods orders fell by 14.4% last month, the biggest slide since 2014, led by waning demand for big-ticket items such as cars and slump in orders for Boeing (NYSE:BA) passenger planes. The dearth of movement in the greenback comes during a week in which the world's reserve currency racked up gains against both the pound and the euro. Concerns about Brexit weighed as the U.K and EU trade talks that got underway this week failed to show any sign of progress. The U.K. "failed to engage substantially" on key sticking points in Brexit talks held this week, the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier said. Despite the current disruptions caused by the Covid-19 crisis, the U.K. continues to insist that it will not extend the transition period beyond the end of the year.
  • The dollar traded in a narrow range Friday, as weaker economic data failed to trigger a meaningful move in either direction. But the greenback remained set to post a second-straight win thanks to strong gains against both the euro and sterling this week. U.S. durable goods orders fell by 14.4% last month, the biggest slide since 2014, led by waning demand for big-ticket items such as cars and slump in orders for Boeing passenger planes. The dearth of movement in the greenback comes during a week in which the world's reserve currency racked up gains against both the pound and the euro. Concerns about Brexit weighed as the U.K and EU trade talks that got underway this week failed to show any sign of progress The U.K. "failed to engage substantially" on key sticking points in Brexit talks held this week, the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier said. Despite the current disruptions caused by the Covid-19 crisis, the U.K. continues to insist that it will not extend the transition period beyond the end of the year.
  • Oil fell on Monday morning in Asia, giving up its gains from the previous session. Both Brent and WTI futures rose during the previous session as Baker Hughes reported that American energy firms cut monthly production for April at levels not seen since 2015. Continental Resources, the largest oil producer in North Dakota, halted most of its production in the state. Elsewhere in North America, Canadian drillers also slashed the number of active oil and gas rigs to a record low. Meanwhile, major producer Russia announced plans to halve oil exports from its Baltic and Black Sea ports in May. But for investors, the cuts may not be enough to combat the black liquid’s oversupply dilemma as the demand shrinkage from the COVID-19 virus does shows little sign of recovery and global storage spaces fill up fast. With oil demand down by around 30%, energy firm Kpler estimated that 85%of onshore oil storage is already full. Even OPEC members expressed doubts that OPEC+’s 10-million-barrel cut in daily production agreed upon two weeks ago, and scheduled to start on Friday, will make a dent. But investors hope that fuel sales will pick up pace later in the quarter in China as it eases lockdowns to curb the spread of the virus. Oil prices fell on Monday on signs that worldwide oil storage is filling rapidly, raising concerns that production cuts will not be fast enough to catch up with the collapse in demand from the coronavirus pandemic. U.S. oil futures led losses after U.S. crude inventories rose to 518.6 million barrels in the week to April 17, near an all-time record of 535 million barrels set in 2017, while floating crude oil storage has hit an all-time high of 160 million barrels. Trading was extremely volatile last week, in an extension of the selling that has dominated trading since early March as demand collapsed 30% due to the pandemic. Producers may not be slashing output quickly or deeply enough to buoy prices, especially when global economic output is expected to contract by 2% this year, worse than the financial crisis. Rig counts in the United States are down to the lowest since July 2016, while the total number of oil and gas rigs in Canada has fallen to the lowest since at least 2000, according to Baker Hughes data. Kuwait and Azerbaijan are coordinating cuts, while Russia is set to reduce its western seaborne exports by half in May. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, pledged earlier this month to cut output by an unprecedented 9.7 million barrels per day in May and June.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
27th April 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,729 1,740 1,747-1,760
Silver-XAG 15.60-16.10 16.70 17.00-17.50
Crude Oil 18.00-19.00 20.50 21.00-21.80
EURO/USD 1.0900 1.0970 1.1030-1.1060
GBP/USD 1.2470-1.2500 1.2550 1.2590-1.2645
USD/JPY 107.50-108.30 109.40 110.20-110.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
27th April 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,720-1,704 1,690 1,674-1,660
Silver-XAG 15.00-14.40 13.90 13.60-12.90
Crude Oil 16.30-15.50 14.03 12.10-11.50
EURO/USD 1.0820-1.0750 1.0700 1.0630-1.0570
GBP/USD 1.2400-1.2320 1.2250 1.2180-1.2100
USD/JPY 106.90 106.20 105.60-105.00

Intra-Day Strategy (27th April 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1736.25/oz and low of US$1707.06/oz. Gold up 0.0872% at US$1728.71/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1596) and breakage below will call for 1550. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1720-1645 with risk below 1645, targeting 1720-1729 and 1740-1755-1774. Sell below 1720-1774 keeping stop loss closing above 1774, targeting 1705-1690-1674 and 1660-1645.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,720-1,704
S2     1,690
S3     1,674-1,660
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,729
R2     1,740
R3     1,747-1,760

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.609

Buy
20-DMA   1657.31 Buy
50-DMA  

1620.94

Buy
100-DMA   1574.80 Buy
200-DMA   1529.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -27.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$15.37/oz and low of US$15.00/oz settled up by 0.216% at US$15.24/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 100DMA (17.55), breakage below will lead to 17.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.00-13.00 targeting 15.60-16.10 and 16.70-17.00-17.40; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 15.60-17.40 with stop loss above 17.40; targeting 15.00-14.40 and 13.90-13.60-13.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.00-14.40
S2     13.90
S3     13.60-12.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60-16.10
R2     16.70
R3     17.00-17.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.370 Buy
20-DMA   14.86 Buy
50-DMA   15.67 Sell
100-DMA   16.62 Sell
200-DMA   16.99 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   48.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.374 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US19.38/bbl, intraday low of US$17.15/bbl and settled up by 0.621% to close at US$18.28/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 16.30-12.10 with risk daily closing below 11.50 and targeting 18.00-19.00 and 20.50-21.00-21.80. Sell in between 18.00-21.60 with stop loss at 21.60; targeting 16.30-15.50-14.05 and 12.10-11.50-10.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     16.30-15.50
S2     14.03
S3     12.10-11.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     18.00-19.00
R2     20.50
R3     21.00-21.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   32.117 Sell
20-DMA   24.19 Buy
50-DMA   33.80 Sell
100-DMA   45.56 Sell
200-DMA   50.65 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   39.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.943 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.0726/EUR, high of US$1.0829/EUR and settled the day up by 0.428% to close at US$1.0822/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0820-1.0570 with risk below 1.0570, targeting 1.10900-1.0970 and 1.1030-1.1060. Sell below 1.0900-1.1060 targeting 1.0900-1.0770-1.0700 and 1.0630-1.0570 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0820-1.0750
S2     1.0700
S3     1.0630-1.0570

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0900
R2     1.0970
R3     1.1030-1.1060

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.562 Buy
20-DMA   1.0900 Buy
50-DMA   1.0960 Buy
100-DMA   1.1026 Buy
200-DMA   1.1054 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   53.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0047 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2297/GBP, high of US$1.2376/GBP and settled the day up by 0.235% to close at US$1.2372/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2400-1.2740 with targets at 1.2320-1.2250-1.2180 and 1.2130-1.2050 stop-loss should be below 1.2740. Buy above 1.2320-1.2050 with targets 1.2400.1.2470-1.2500 and 1.2590-1.2650-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2400-1.2320
S2     1.2250
S3     1.2180-1.2100

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2470-1.2500
R2     1.2550
R3     1.2590-1.2645

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.554

Buy
20-DMA   1.2379 Buy
50-DMA   1.2525 Sell
100-DMA   1.2797 Sell
200-DMA   1.2646 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   17.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY107.36/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.75/USD and settled the day down by 0.0195% at JPY107.52/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.40-111.50 with risk above 111.50 targeting 109.00-108.30-107.50-106.90 and 106.00-105.50. Long positions above 108.30-105.00 with targets of 109.40-110.20-110.90 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.90
S2     106.20
S3     105.60-105.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.50-108.30
R2     109.40
R3     110.20-110.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.904 Buy
20-DMA   108.23 Buy
50-DMA   108.75 Sell
100-DMA   108.95 Sell
200-DMA   108.31 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   52.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.161 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING