AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar has risen in early European trade, as more turmoil in the oil markets resulted in traders taking a less expansive stance with risk, heading back to the safe haven. Oil futures slumped after the largest U.S. oil exchange-traded fund said it would sell all its front-month crude contracts to avoid further losses as prices collapse. The renewed decline in oil prices has overshadowed optimism about the easing of coronavirus-related restrictions seen globally. From Italy to New Zealand, many governments have announced the easing of restrictions, but British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Monday that it was too early to relax them there, hitting sterling. Speaking outside the prime minister’s house at No. 10, Downing Street for the first time since recovering from the virus, Johnson said "we are now beginning to turn the tide" on the disease, but the lockdown would not be relaxed too soon. Another country worth keeping an eye on Tuesday is Sweden, with the Riksbank set to announce its latest interest rate decision at 4:30 AM ET (0830 GMT), and is generally expected to hold still at 0% - a view that has led the krona to strengthen against the euro in recent weeks. Danske Bank disagreed with this view, predicting the Swedish central bank will head back into negative rates territory, cutting its repo rate by 25 basis points to minus 0.25%. The dollar was up on Tuesday morning in Asia with more countries loosening their strict lockdown measures put in place to curb the COVID-19 virus. Australia avoided the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic and states are starting to loosen strict lockdown measures. Sydney’s Bondi beach re-opened to visitors earlier in the day. The GBP/USD pair fell 0.12% to 1.2413 as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned that it was too dangerous to relax lockdown measures in Britain during his first day back at work after his battle with COVID-19.
  • Most Asian shares made gains while U.S. stock futures fell on Tuesday amid choppy trade as a renewed decline in oil prices partially offset optimism about the easing of coronavirus-related restrictions. Oil futures slumped after the largest U.S. oil exchange-traded fund said it would sell all its front-month crude contracts to avoid further losses as prices collapse due to concerns over weak demand, oversupply and a shortage of storage capacity. As more countries allow businesses to re-open following lockdowns to contain coronavirus outbreaks, some investors are hoping the worst may be over for the world economy, but others remained cautious, especially as a vaccine has yet to be developed. From Italy to New Zealand, governments announced the easing of restrictions, while Britain said it was too early to relax them there. New York state is not expected to reopen for weeks. A rush of capital raisings underway in Australia held investors attention in the Asian region on Tuesday, Elizabeth Tian, Citigroup’s equity derivatives director, said. Refinitiv data showed it was the busiest period for the Australian capital markets since the 2009 recovery from the global financial crisis when companies rushed to restore their balance sheets. The U.S. dollar and the euro were little changed as traders refrained from taking big positions before a U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision due on Wednesday and a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. The Fed has already announced a raft of measures to cushion the blow to the economy from the coronavirus pandemic and the U.S. central bank is expected to stay on hold this week. The ECB is likely to extend its debt purchases to include junk bonds and provide a backstop for corporate financing. Major central banks have responded to the economic slump caused by the coronavirus by slashing interest rates, buying more government debt, and taking steps to increase lending to small companies.
  • Oil prices slumped again on Tuesday amid concern about dwindling capacity to store crude worldwide, heightened by fears that fuel demand may be slow to pick up once countries ease curbs imposed on business and social life to combat the coronavirus pandemic. Strategists said part of the WTI decline is due to retail investment vehicles like exchange-traded funds selling out of the front-month June contract and buying into months later in the year to avert massive losses like last week, when WTI plummeted below zero. The United States Oil Fund LP (USO) (P:USO), the largest oil-focused U.S. exchange-traded product, said it would further shift its holdings into later-dated contracts. Even with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia having agreed record output cuts of nearly 10 million barrels per day (bpd) from May 1, that volume is not nearly enough to offset a drop in demand of around 30 million bpd due to COVID-19 restrictions. As a result of the collapse in demand, global storage onshore is estimated to be about 85% full as of last week, according to data from consultancy Kpler. In a sign of the energy industry's desperation for places to store petroleum, oil traders are resorting to hiring expensive U.S. vessels to store gasoline or ship fuel overseas, shipping sources said.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
28th April 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,720-1,729 1,740 1,747-1,760
Silver-XAG 15.60-16.10 16.70 17.00-17.50
Crude Oil 14.03--15.50 16.30 18.00-19.00
EURO/USD 1.0900 1.0970 1.1030-1.1060
GBP/USD 1.2470-1.2500 1.2550 1.2590-1.2645
USD/JPY 107.50-108.30 109.40 110.20-110.90

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
28th April 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,700-1,690 1,674 1,660-1,650
Silver-XAG 14.90-14.40 13.90 13.60-12.90
Crude Oil 12.10-11.50 10.70 10.20-9.50
EURO/USD 1.0700 1.0700 1.0630-1.0570
GBP/USD 1.2400-1.2320 1.2250 1.2180-1.2100
USD/JPY 106.90 106.20 105.60-105.00

Intra-Day Strategy (28th April 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1704.48/oz and low of US$1692.01/oz. Gold up 0.0872% at US$1695.20/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1596) and breakage below will call for 1550. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1700-1645 with risk below 1645, targeting 1720-1729 and 1740-1755-1774. Sell below 1720-1774 keeping stop loss closing above 1774, targeting 1705-1690-1674 and 1660-1645.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,700-1,690
S2     1,674
S3     1,660-1,650
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,720-1,729
R2     1,740
R3     1,747-1,760

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.609

Buy
20-DMA   1657.31 Buy
50-DMA  

1620.94

Buy
100-DMA   1574.80 Buy
200-DMA   1529.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -27.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$15.08/oz and low of US$14.96/oz settled down by 0.279% at US$14.98/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 100DMA (17.55), breakage below will lead to 17.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.00-13.00 targeting 15.60-16.10 and 16.70-17.00-17.40; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 15.60-17.40 with stop loss above 17.40; targeting 15.00-14.40 and 13.90-13.60-13.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.90-14.40
S2     13.90
S3     13.60-12.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60-16.10
R2     16.70
R3     17.00-17.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.370 Buy
20-DMA   14.86 Buy
50-DMA   15.67 Sell
100-DMA   16.62 Sell
200-DMA   16.99 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   48.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.374 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US14.11/bbl, intraday low of US$13.46/bbl and settled up by 1.24% to close at US$14.05/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 12.10-9.50 with risk daily closing below 9.50 and targeting 14.05-15.50-16.30 and 18.00-19.00. Sell in between 14.00-19.00 with stop loss at 19.00; targeting 12.10-11.50-10.70 and 10.20-9.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     12.10-11.50
S2     10.70
S3     10.20-9.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     14.03--15.50
R2     16.30
R3     18.00-19.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   31.117 Sell
20-DMA   16.71 Buy
50-DMA   19.32 Sell
100-DMA   23.84 Sell
200-DMA   24.94 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   12.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.406 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.0816/EUR, high of US$1.0833/EUR and settled the day down by 0.1015% to close at US$1.0821/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0820-1.0570 with risk below 1.0570, targeting 1.10900-1.0970 and 1.1030-1.1060. Sell below 1.0900-1.1060 targeting 1.0900-1.0770-1.0700 and 1.0630-1.0570 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0700
S2     1.0700
S3     1.0630-1.0570

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0900
R2     1.0970
R3     1.1030-1.1060

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.562 Buy
20-DMA   1.0900 Buy
50-DMA   1.0960 Buy
100-DMA   1.1026 Buy
200-DMA   1.1054 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   53.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0047 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2405/GBP, high of US$1.2429/GBP and settled the day down by 0.126% to close at US$1.2413/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2400-1.2740 with targets at 1.2320-1.2250-1.2180 and 1.2130-1.2050 stop-loss should be below 1.2740. Buy above 1.2320-1.2050 with targets 1.2400.1.2470-1.2500 and 1.2590-1.2650-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2400-1.2320
S2     1.2250
S3     1.2180-1.2100

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2470-1.2500
R2     1.2550
R3     1.2590-1.2645

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.554

Buy
20-DMA   1.2379 Buy
50-DMA   1.2525 Sell
100-DMA   1.2797 Sell
200-DMA   1.2646 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   17.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY107.23/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.33/USD and settled the day down by 0.0223% at JPY107.26/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.40-111.50 with risk above 111.50 targeting 109.00-108.30-107.50-106.90 and 106.00-105.50. Long positions above 108.30-105.00 with targets of 109.40-110.20-110.90 and 111.50-112.00 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.90
S2     106.20
S3     105.60-105.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.50-108.30
R2     109.40
R3     110.20-110.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.904 Buy
20-DMA   108.23 Buy
50-DMA   108.75 Sell
100-DMA   108.95 Sell
200-DMA   108.31 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   52.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.161 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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