AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was on the back foot on Wednesday as the slowing spread of the corona virus and moves to re-open economies supported the investor mood, ahead of major central bank meetings. But gains were capped by caution and other majors steady as markets look to the U.S. Federal Reserve, which meets on Wednesday, and the European Central Bank, which meets on Thursday, for guidance. Investors will be watching to see if the U.S. central bank gives any clues on its future policy path after it responded to the economic devastation of the COVID-19 pandemic by slashing rates, buying bonds and backstopping credit markets. The Fed is due to issue a statement at 1800 GMT, followed by a press conference with Chairman Jerome Powell at 1830 GMT. Cases of COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the virus, topped 1 million in the United States overnight but investor focus is now increasingly on plans to relax restrictions and restore a battered economy. U.S. consumer confidence slumped to a six-year low this month, data showed overnight. Markets are bracing for quarterly GDP, published at 1230 GMT, which is expected to show a 4% contraction. Despite the gloom, markets have almost solely focused on the positives over the past week, as seen in the performance of the Australian dollar, a risk-sensitive currency. The dollar was on the back foot on Wednesday as the slowing spread of the coronavirus and moves to re-open economies supported the investor mood, ahead of major central bank meetings. But gains were capped by caution and other majors steady as markets look to the U.S. Federal Reserve, which meets on Wednesday, and the European Central Bank, which meets on Thursday, for guidance. Investors will be watching to see if the U.S. central bank gives any clues on its future policy path after it responded to the economic devastation of the COVID-19 pandemic by slashing rates, buying bonds and backstopping credit markets. The Fed is due to issue a statement at 1800 GMT, followed by a press conference with Chairman Jerome Powell at 1830 GMT. Cases of COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the virus, topped 1 million in the United States overnight but investor focus is now increasingly on plans to relax restrictions and restore a battered economy. U.S. consumer confidence slumped to a six-year low this month, data showed overnight. Markets are bracing for quarterly GDP, published at 1230 GMT, which is expected to show a 4% contraction. Despite the gloom, markets have almost solely focused on the positives over the past week, as seen in the performance of the Australian dollar, a risk-sensitive currency.
  • Asian shares climbed to a near two-month peak on Wednesday as investors took heart from easing coronavirus lockdowns in some parts of the world, better-than-expected corporate earnings and a welcome rebound in oil prices. Risk assets including equities have rallied for most of this month thanks to heavy doses of fiscal and monetary policy stimulus around the globe aimed at softening the economic blow from the COVID-19 pandemic. Positive news around potential treatments for the infection as well as progress in developing a vaccine have also boosted sentiment recently. Moreover, investors are growing confident the infection may be peaking as parts of the United States, Europe and Australia gradually ease restrictions while New Zealand this week allowed some businesses to re-open. Darby said the number of stocks above their 260-day moving average was still very low across emerging market and developed market indexes while the number of stocks making new highs versus new lows is about equal. The equity gains have come even as analysts predict a sharp contraction in world growth. Moody’s expects economies of the group of 20 advanced nations (G-20) to shrink 5.8% this year with momentum unlikely to recover to pre-coronavirus levels even in 2021. Markets were next looking for any guidance from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is due to issue a policy statement at the close of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday. Analysts said it was unlikely the Fed would make further major policy moves, given the scope and depth of its efforts to counter the economic damage caused by the coronavirus.
  • U.S. oil prices jumped on Wednesday, trimming some of this week's losses, after U.S. stockpiles rose less than expected and on expectations demand will increase as some European countries and U.S. cities moved to ease coronavirus lockdowns U.S. crude inventories rose by 10 mn barrels to 510 mn barrels in the week to April 24, data from industry group the API showed on Tuesday, compared with analysts' expectations for a build of 10.6 mn barrels. The market will get another read on U.S. inventories when the U.S. Energy Information Administration releases weekly data later on Wednesday. While storage is rapidly filling up, production cuts by U.S. shale producers, estimated by consultants Rystad Energy at 300K bpd for May and June, should help slow flows into tanks. The United States is now the world's biggest oil producer. Regulators in the U.S. state of Texas, the country's biggest oil producer, will hold a vote on May 5 on whether to enact output curtailments. Officials in the states of North Dakota and Oklahoma are also examining ways to legally allow output cuts. That would add to production cuts of almost 10 mn bpd agreed by the OPEC and other large producers including Russia, or about 10% of global production, due to take effect from May 1 At the same time, hopes for at least some demand recovery put a floor under oil prices, following two days of selling in June contracts by exchange-traded funds looking to avoid the extreme volatility which hit WTI last week.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
29th April 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,720-1,729 1,740 1,747-1,760
Silver-XAG 15.60-16.10 16.70 17.00-17.50
Crude Oil 15.50 16.30 18.00-19.00
EURO/USD 1.0900 1.0970 1.1030-1.1060
GBP/USD 1.2470-1.2500 1.2550 1.2590-1.2645
USD/JPY 106.90-107.50 108.30 109.40-110.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
29th April 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,700-1,690 1,674 1,660-1,650
Silver-XAG 14.90-14.40 13.90 13.60-12.90
Crude Oil 14.03-12.10 11.50 10.70-10.20
EURO/USD 1.0820-1.0750 1.0700 1.0630-1.0570
GBP/USD 1.2400-1.2320 1.2250 1.2180-1.2100
USD/JPY 106.20 105.60-105.00 104.30

Intra-Day Strategy (29th April 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1716.23/oz and low of US$1691.60/oz. Gold down 0.272% at US$1707.50/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1596) and breakage below will call for 1550. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1700-1645 with risk below 1645, targeting 1720-1729 and 1740-1755-1774. Sell below 1720-1774 keeping stop loss closing above 1774, targeting 1705-1690-1674 and 1660-1645.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,700-1,690
S2     1,674
S3     1,660-1,650
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,720-1,729
R2     1,740
R3     1,747-1,760

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

57.609

Buy
20-DMA   1657.31 Buy
50-DMA  

1620.94

Buy
100-DMA   1574.80 Buy
200-DMA   1529.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -27.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$15.21/oz and low of US$14.89/oz settled down by 0.461% at US$15.09/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 100DMA (17.55), breakage below will lead to 17.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving negative crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.00-13.00 targeting 15.60-16.10 and 16.70-17.00-17.40; stop breakage below 13.00. Sell below 15.60-17.40 with stop loss above 17.40; targeting 15.00-14.40 and 13.90-13.60-13.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.90-14.40
S2     13.90
S3     13.60-12.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60-16.10
R2     16.70
R3     17.00-17.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.370 Buy
20-DMA   14.86 Buy
50-DMA   15.67 Sell
100-DMA   16.62 Sell
200-DMA   16.99 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   48.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.374 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US15.80/bbl, intraday low of US$12.96/bbl and settled up by 0.267% to close at US$15.00/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 14.1-10.20 with risk daily closing below 10.20 and targeting 15.50-16.30 and 18.00-19.00. Sell in between 15.50-19.00 with stop loss at 19.00; targeting 14.00-12.10-11.50 and 10.70-10.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     14.03-12.10
S2     11.50
S3     10.70-10.20

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     15.50
R2     16.30
R3     18.00-19.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   32.117 Sell
20-DMA   16.71 Buy
50-DMA   19.32 Sell
100-DMA   23.84 Sell
200-DMA   24.94 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   41.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.406 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday an intraday low of US$1.0808/EUR, high of US$1.0887/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0905% to close at US$1.0818/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0820-1.0570 with risk below 1.0570, targeting 1.10900-1.0970 and 1.1030-1.1060. Sell below 1.0900-1.1060 targeting 1.0900-1.0770-1.0700 and 1.0630-1.0570 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0820-1.0750
S2     1.0700
S3     1.0630-1.0570

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0900
R2     1.0970
R3     1.1030-1.1060

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.562 Buy
20-DMA   1.0900 Buy
50-DMA   1.0960 Buy
100-DMA   1.1026 Buy
200-DMA   1.1054 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   53.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0047 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2402/GBP, high of US$1.2517/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0241% to close at US$1.2422/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2400-1.2320
S2     1.2250
S3     1.2180-1.2100

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2470-1.2500
R2     1.2550
R3     1.2590-1.2645

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.554

Buy
20-DMA   1.2379 Buy
50-DMA   1.2525 Sell
100-DMA   1.2797 Sell
200-DMA   1.2646 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   17.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY106.55/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.33/USD and settled the day down by 0.295% at JPY106.85/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 106.90-110.50 with risk above 110.50 targeting 106.20-105.60-105.00 and 104.30. Long positions above 106.90-105.00 with targets of 106.90-107.50-108.30 and 109.40-110.20-110.90 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.20
S2     105.60-105.00
S3     104.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     106.90-107.50
R2     108.30
R3     109.40-110.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.904 Buy
20-DMA   108.23 Buy
50-DMA   108.75 Sell
100-DMA   108.95 Sell
200-DMA   108.31 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   52.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.161 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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