AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar pushed higher in early European trade Thursday, with investors willing to head back towards this safe haven after the Federal Reserve’s dreary economic outlook. The U.S. central bank projected late Wednesday that the U.S. economy would shrink 6.5% this year and the unemployment rate would be 9.3% at year's end. That was a gloomier view than many in the market had expected, particularly after Friday’s shock employment report, and sent investors out of stocks, away from riskier currencies and towards bonds and the dollar. The Australian dollar retreated from an overnight 11-month high, dropping 1% to $0.6929, the New Zealand dollar gave up a four-and-a-half month high and fell 0.7% to $0.6493. That said, with the Federal Reserve indicating that its loose monetary policy is set to stay for the long haul, this dollar strength is likely to be a temporary phenomenon The single currency has been boosted of late by signs of the continent’s countries working together to combat the coronavirus, with the EU's executive Commission proposing a hefty recovery fund, made up of grants and loans for every EU member state. The Eurogroup, a grouping of E.U. finance ministers, is set to meet later Thursday, to discuss the EU recovery fund. However, “given the differences between the EU commission and e.g. the Netherlands and Austria, the proposal for the recovery fund needs some work before it can be passed in the various parliaments,” analysts at Danske Bank wrote, in a research note. The dollar pushed higher in early European trade Thursday, with investors willing to head back towards this safe haven after the Federal Reserve’s dreary economic outlook. The U.S. central bank projected late Wednesday that the U.S. economy would shrink 6.5% this year and the unemployment rate would be 9.3% at year's end. That was a gloomier view than many in the market had expected, particularly after Friday’s shock employment report, and sent investors out of stocks, away from riskier currencies and towards bonds and the dollar. That said, with the Federal Reserve indicating that its loose monetary policy is set to stay for the long haul, this dollar strength is likely to be a temporary phenomenon. The single currency has been boosted of late by signs of the continent’s countries working together to combat the coronavirus, with the EU's executive Commission proposing a hefty recovery fund, made up of grants and loans for every EU member state. The Eurogroup, a grouping of E.U. finance ministers, is set to meet later Thursday, to discuss the EU recovery fund.
  • Oil prices fell by about 4% on Thursday on worries about slow demand growth as coronavirus cases rise, with U.S. crude stockpiles hitting an all-time high and the U.S. Federal Reserve saying recovery from the pandemic could take years. U.S. crude inventories rose unexpectedly by 5.7 million barrels in the week to June 5 to 538.1 million barrels - a record - as imports were boosted by the arrival of supplies bought by refiners when Saudi Arabia flooded the market in March and April, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed. The effect of the Saudi import surge on pricing should be "transitory", said Jeffrey Halley, market analyst at OANDA. EIA data also showed gasoline stockpiles grew more than expected to 258.7 million barrels. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 1.6 million barrels, but the increase was smaller than in previous weeks. The market took a negative view on the stock builds, even though there were signs of improving gasoline demand as well, said Commonwealth Bank commodities analyst Vivek Dhar. Adding to the negative sentiment, the U.S. Federal Reserve said in its first projections of the pandemic era that the world's largest economy would shrink by 6.5% this year, with the unemployment rate at 9.3% at the end of 2020. In a further sign recovery will continue to be overshadowed by the coronavirus, total U.S. cases topped 2 million on Wednesday, with new infections rising slightly after five weeks of declines, according to a Reuters analysis.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
11th June 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,740-1,748 1,754 1,760-1,770
Silver-XAG 18.00-18.55 18.95 19.60-20.10
Crude Oil 38.90 39.50 40.10-41.00
EURO/USD 1.1360 1.1400 1.1450-1.1495
GBP/USD 1.2720-1.2800 1.2850 1.2870-1.2930
USD/JPY 107.10-107.90 108.40 109.40-110.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
11th June 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,729-1,704 1,690 1,675-1,664
Silver-XAG 17.50-16.95 16.50 16.10-15.80
Crude Oil 38.00-37.10 36.60 35.40-33.90
EURO/USD 1.1235 1.1235 1.1190-1.1150
GBP/USD 1.2650-1.2600 1.2550 1.2470-1.2410
USD/JPY 106.50-106.20 105.00-104.50 105.00-104.50

Intra-Day Strategy (11th June 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1739.73/oz and low of US$1707.00/oz. Gold up 1.471% at US$1737.48/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1642) and breakage below will call for 1600. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1729-1670 with risk below 1670, targeting 1740-1748 and 1654-1660. Sell below 1740-1770 keeping stop loss closing above 1770, targeting 1729-1704-1690 and 1674-1664.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,729-1,704
S2     1,690
S3     1,675-1,664
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,740-1,748
R2     1,754
R3     1,760-1,770

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

55.982

Buy
20-DMA   1723.18 Sell
50-DMA  

1705.61

Sell
100-DMA   1648.90 Buy
200-DMA   1573.51 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   87.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   4.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$18.18/oz and low of US$17.47/oz settled up by 3.31% at US$18.06/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (16.93), breakage below will lead to 16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.50-15.40 targeting 18.00-18.40-18.95 and 19.60-20.10; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 18.00-20.10 with stop loss above 20.10; targeting 16.90-16.50-16.10 and 15.80-15.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.50-16.95
S2     16.50
S3     16.10-15.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     18.00-18.55
R2     18.95
R3     19.60-20.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.514 Buy
20-DMA   17.25 Buy
50-DMA   15.92 Buy
100-DMA   16.27 Buy
200-DMA   16.92 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   60.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.541 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US40.00/bbl, intraday low of US$37.89/bbl and settled up by 1.422% to close at US$39.13/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 38.00-33.00 with risk daily closing below 33.00 and targeting 38.00-38.90-39.50 and 40.10-41.00-41.60. Sell in between 38.00-41.40 with stop loss at 42.00; targeting 37.10-36.60-36.10 and 35.20-33.90-33.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     38.00-37.10
S2     36.60
S3     35.40-33.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     38.90
R2     39.50
R3     40.10-41.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   69.03 Sell
20-DMA   34.64 Buy
50-DMA   27.86 Buy
100-DMA   35.24 Buy
200-DMA   46.22 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   50.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   3.180 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1320/EUR, high of US$1.1363/EUR and settled the day up by 0.395% to close at US$1.1372/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1300-1.1150 with risk below 1.1150, targeting 1.1360-1.1400-1.1450 and 1.1495-1.1550. Sell below 1.1360-1.1495 targeting 1.1300-1.1260-1.1235 and 1.1190-1.1150-1.1060 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1150.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1235
S2     1.1235
S3     1.1190-1.1150

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1360
R2     1.1400
R3     1.1450-1.1495

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   74.032 Buy
20-DMA   1.0741 Buy
50-DMA   1.0946 Buy
100-DMA   1.0969 Sell
200-DMA   1.1018 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   75.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2705/GBP, high of US$1.2812/GBP and settled the day up by 0.125% to close at US$1.2751/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2720-1.2930 with targets at 1.2600-1.2550-1.2410 and 1.2320-1.2250-1.2165 stop-loss should be 1.2600. Buy above 1.2600-1.2060 with targets 1.2650-1.2700-1.2770 and 1.2800-1.2850-1.2910 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2650-1.2600
S2     1.2550
S3     1.2470-1.2410

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2720-1.2800
R2     1.2850
R3     1.2870-1.2930

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.554

Buy
20-DMA   1.2308 Buy
50-DMA   1.2270 Sell
100-DMA   1.2600 Sell
200-DMA   1.2650 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   44.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY106.98/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.86/USD and settled the day down by 0.584% at JPY107.11/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.10-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 106.80-106.20-105.60 and 105.00-104.50. Long positions above 106.50-104.00 with targets of 107.10-107.90-108.40 and 109.40-110.20-110.90 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.50-106.20
S2     105.00-104.50
S3     105.00-104.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.10-107.90
R2     108.40
R3     109.40-110.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.904 Buy
20-DMA   107.85 Buy
50-DMA   107.62 Sell
100-DMA   108.19 Sell
200-DMA   108.40 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   3.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.161 Sell

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