AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged higher in early European trade Friday, with investors seeking this safe haven amid fears of a second wave of the Covid-19 outbreak and the possibility of renewed lockdowns to curb the spread. These fears have grown with the U.S. reporting more than 2 million Covid-19 cases as of June 12 and a number of the more populous states reporting increased numbers of infections. That said, “the bar for turning to lockdowns again seems very high, though. Not least in the U.S., where there is strong opposition to this,” Danske added. Additionally, the market was still digesting a grim picture of the U.S. economic recovery painted by the U.S. Federal Reserve after it concluded its policy meeting on Wednesday. Elsewhere, sterling has weakened across the board after data showed that Britain's economy shrank by a record 20.4% in April from March as the country spent the month in a tight coronavirus lockdown. Financial Times reported Thursday that the high level summit between U.K. PM Boris Johnson, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel is set to take place on June 15. The dollar was up on Friday, with the U.S. reporting more than 2 million COVID-19 cases as of June 12 and triggering renewed fears of a second wave of cases. Investors were also spooked by the possibility of renewed lockdowns to curb the spread. The market was still digesting a grim picture of the U.S. economic recovery painted by the U.S. Federal Reserve after it concluded its policy meeting on Wednesday. But some investors suggested that factors other than the Fed’s grim analysis contributed to stocks’ losses from its recent rally.. There are almost 7.5 million cases worldwide according to Johns Hopkins University data.
  • Gold was down on Friday morning in Asia, with investors continuing to consolidate their gains from earlier in the week. The yellow metal hit a weekly high during the previous session, boosted by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates low during its policy meeting on Wednesday. Meanwhile, 1.542 million Americans submitted unemployment claims during the week, slightly lower than the 1.55 million claims predicted in forecasts prepared by Investing.com.
  • Oil prices fell on Friday, extending heavy overnight losses as a surge in U.S. coronavirus cases this week raised the prospect of a second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak hitting demand in the world's biggest consumer of crude and fuel. A rally that raised oil off April lows has come to a shuddering halt this week as the market faced the reality that the coronavirus pandemic may be far from over, with cases in the United States alone passing 2 million. The oil benchmarks are heading for their first weekly declines in seven, with Brent dropping about 10% and U.S. crude also down around 10%. Producers from the United States, as well as from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, have been cutting supply, some by record amounts. Still, U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles grew last week, according to government data. U.S. crude oil inventories rose to a record 538.1 million barrels, as cheap imports from Saudi Arabia flowed into the country. That gave rise to worries about a continuing supply-demand imbalance, as states including Texas and Arizona are seeing their coronavirus infections jump and are struggling to cope with a growing number of patients filling hospital beds. In Houston, Lina Hidalgo, senior official for the county that includes the city at the heart of the U.S. oil industry, said "we may be approaching the precipice of a disaster". More than 7.43 million people have been infected by the novel coronavirus around the world and more than 400,000 have died, according to a Reuters tally. Oil was down on Friday morning in Asia, continuing its retreat amid fears that a second wave of COVID-19 cases will lead to an oversupply. The United States had surpassed 2 million COVID-19 cases on Friday, according to Johns Hopkins University data. Investors were calculating the implications on an already fragile demand, with the number of worldwide cases fast approaching 7.5 million. Both the American Petroleum Institute and the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted surprise builds in the crude oil supply earlier in the week, renewing concerns of a supply glut, despite a recent OPEC+ pledge to continue production cuts into July. The losses ended the rally that the black liquid has enjoyed ever since its touched negative territory in April, as the realization that the battle against COVID-19 is not over yet hits the market. But some investors welcomed what they view as a much-needed correction.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
12th June 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,740-1,748 1,754 1,760-1,770
Silver-XAG 18.00-18.55 18.95 19.60-20.10
Crude Oil 36.00-37.10 38.00 38.90-39.50
EURO/USD 1.1360 1.1400 1.1450-1.1495
GBP/USD 1.2650-1.2720 1.2800 1.2850-1.2930
USD/JPY 107.10-107.90 108.40 109.40-110.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
12th June 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,729-1,704 1,690 1,675-1,664
Silver-XAG 17.50-16.95 16.50 16.10-15.80
Crude Oil 34.90-33.90 33.00 32.10-30.80
EURO/USD 1.1300-1.1260 1.1235 1.1190-1.1150
GBP/USD 1.2600 1.2550 1.2470-1.2410
USD/JPY 106.50 105.50-105.00 104.30

Intra-Day Strategy (12th June 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1744.62/oz and low of US$1721.45/oz. Gold down 0.591% at US$1726.95/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1642) and breakage below will call for 1600. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1729-1670 with risk below 1670, targeting 1740-1748 and 1654-1660. Sell below 1740-1770 keeping stop loss closing above 1770, targeting 1729-1704-1690 and 1674-1664.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,729-1,704
S2     1,690
S3     1,675-1,664
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,740-1,748
R2     1,754
R3     1,760-1,770

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

55.982

Sell
20-DMA   1723.18 Sell
50-DMA  

1705.61

Sell
100-DMA   1648.90 Buy
200-DMA   1573.51 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   87.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   4.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$18.14/oz and low of US$17.46/oz settled down by 2.38% at US$17.62/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (16.93), breakage below will lead to 16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.50-15.40 targeting 18.00-18.40-18.95 and 19.60-20.10; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 18.00-20.10 with stop loss above 20.10; targeting 16.90-16.50-16.10 and 15.80-15.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.50-16.95
S2     16.50
S3     16.10-15.80

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     18.00-18.55
R2     18.95
R3     19.60-20.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.514 Buy
20-DMA   17.25 Buy
50-DMA   15.92 Buy
100-DMA   16.27 Buy
200-DMA   16.92 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   60.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.541 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US39.176/bbl, intraday low of US$35.59/bbl and settled down by 7.39% to close at US$36.24/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 34.90-30.00 with risk daily closing below 30.00 and targeting 36.00-37.10-38.00 and 38.90-39.50-40.10. Sell in between 36.00-40.10 with stop loss at 40.10; targeting 34.90-33.90-33.00 and 32.10-30.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     34.90-33.90
S2     33.00
S3     32.10-30.80

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     36.00-37.10
R2     38.00
R3     38.90-39.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.03 Sell
20-DMA   35.38 Buy
50-DMA   28.34 Buy
100-DMA   34.85 Buy
200-DMA   46.04 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   26.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   2.180 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1287/EUR, high of US$1.1402/EUR and settled the day down by 0.652% to close at US$1.1298/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1300-1.1150 with risk below 1.1150, targeting 1.1360-1.1400-1.1450 and 1.1495-1.1550. Sell below 1.1360-1.1495 targeting 1.1300-1.1260-1.1235 and 1.1190-1.1150-1.1060 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1150.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1300-1.1260
S2     1.1235
S3     1.1190-1.1150

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1360
R2     1.1400
R3     1.1450-1.1495

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.032 Buy
20-DMA   1.1124 Buy
50-DMA   1.0965 Buy
100-DMA   1.0974 Sell
200-DMA   1.1021 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   51.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2585/GBP, high of US$1.2753/GBP and settled the day down by 1.128% to close at US$1.2601/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2720-1.2930 with targets at 1.2600-1.2550-1.2410 and 1.2320-1.2250-1.2165 stop-loss should be 1.2600. Buy above 1.2600-1.2060 with targets 1.2650-1.2700-1.2770 and 1.2800-1.2850-1.2910 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2600
S2     1.2550
S3     1.2470-1.2410

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2650-1.2720
R2     1.2800
R3     1.2850-1.2930

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.554

Buy
20-DMA   1.2308 Buy
50-DMA   1.2270 Sell
100-DMA   1.2600 Sell
200-DMA   1.2650 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   44.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY107.56/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.22/USD and settled the day up by 0.211% at JPY106.85/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.10-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 106.80-106.20-105.60 and 105.00-104.50. Long positions above 106.50-104.00 with targets of 107.10-107.90-108.40 and 109.40-110.20-110.90 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.50
S2     105.50-105.00
S3     104.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.10-107.90
R2     108.40
R3     109.40-110.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.904 Buy
20-DMA   107.86 Buy
50-DMA   107.59 Sell
100-DMA   108.17 Sell
200-DMA   108.40 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   11.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.161 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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