AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was steady in early European trade Tuesday, after some volatile trading in Asian hours on the back of uncertainty surrounding the standing of the U.S.-China trade agreement. The dollar surged higher, and risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar weakened, after White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said the trade deal with China is "over". These moves didn’t last long however, as Navarro quickly backtracked, stating that his comments had “been taken wildly out of context.” U.S. President Donald Trump provided further assurance by tweeting that the deal was “still intact.” Tensions between Washington and Beijing are already fraught, and Navarro’s comments revived memories of the trade war between the two countries, which roiled financial markets and dented global growth before being partially settled with the deal in January. Another currency in the spotlight of late has been sterling. The Bank of England added to its quantitative easing program last week, but it also suggested that the pace of its asset purchases is set to decline in the remainder of the year. However, sterling failed to gain any support from this due to fears about the depth of the economic downturn, which means the market remains focused on the odds of the Bank cutting rates below zero in future. In addition, negotiations with the EU over post-Brexit trading relationships have produced little hope for a breakthrough. The dollar was up on Tuesday morning, steadying an earlier surge after White House trade advisor Peter Navarro clarified his statements concerning the U.S.-China trade deal. Investors were taken on a roller-coaster ride earlier in the session after Navarro said that the deal was “over” on Monday, only to issue a clarification shortly afterwards stating that his comments had “been taken wildly out of context.” The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was up 0.01% to 96.998 by 12:07 PM ET (5:07 AM GMT). Investors rushed to the safe-haven asset after Navarro’s initial comments over fears of rising U.S.-China tensions, only to slowly retreating after the clarifications.
  • Asian equity markets bounced on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S.-China trade pact was “fully intact”, clarifying earlier confusing statements from the White House over the fate of the deal. Jitters emerged early in the Asian day after White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said the trade deal with China was “over”, linking the breakdown in part to Washington’s anger over Beijing not sounding the alarm earlier about the coronavirus outbreak. The statement prompted a selloff across equities markets but sentiment quickly recovered when Navarro, an outspoken critic of China, said his remarks had been taken out of context. Trump also soothed nerves when he tweeted: “China trade deal is fully intact. Hopefully they will continue to live up to the terms of the agreement.” Asian stocks have rallied hard since hitting a low in March amid worries about the jolt to the global economy from the coronavirus-driven shutdown. Ord Minnett investment advisor John Milroy said equity market sentiment was positive despite ongoing bursts of volatility across regional markets. Safe-haven gold, which initially rose on Navarro’s remarks, sold off on the clarification, while risk sensitive currencies staged a recovery. Menon expects U.S.-China tensions to escalate in the run-up to the U.S. elections. China on Tuesday reported 22 new coronavirus cases, of which 13 were located in the capital, and the city’s government has started to restrict people from moving to help contain the outbreak. New infections have spiked in Latin America, Brazil in particular, while New York City, the epicentre of the U.S. outbreak, eased restrictions after 100 days of lockdown.
  • Oil was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, giving up its earlier gains from the session. Investors were spooked after White House trade adviser Peter Navarro told the press on Monday that the U.S.’s trade deal with China is “over”, crushing hopes of salvaging the hard-won phase one trade deal reached earlier this year. China, one of the world’s biggest oil importers, has yet to respond to Navarro’s comments, but an escalation of U.S.-China tension threatens a delay in the global economic recovery from COVID-19, in turn increasing the risks of an oversupply. The statement put a damper on the optimism seen in the previous session, where Brent futures gained 2.1% and WTI futures rose almost 2%. Some U.S. states emerged from extended lockdown, with New York clogged with traffic as the city reopens after over three months of lockdown. Investors are now awaiting the predictions in crude oil supply from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), due later in the day and on Wednesday respectively.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
23rd June 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,754-1,760 1,770 1,780-1,790
Silver-XAG 18.00-18.55 18.95 19.60-20.10
Crude Oil 41.20-42.00 43.50 44.00-44.50
EURO/USD 1.1300-1.1360 1.1400 1.1450-1.1500
GBP/USD 1.2470 1.2550 1.2600-1.2650
USD/JPY 107.40-107. 90 108.40 109.40-110.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
23rd June 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,748-1,740 1,720 1,704-1,690
Silver-XAG 17.50-17.25 16.90 16.30-16.00
Crude Oil 40.50-39.50 38.90 37.90-37.10
EURO/USD 1.1250-1.1205 1.1150 1.1090-1.1030
GBP/USD 1.2410-1.2320 1.2240 1.2165-1.2100
USD/JPY 107.00-106.50 105.50 105.00-104.30

Intra-Day Strategy (23rd June 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1763.09/oz and low of US$1720.55 /oz. Gold up 0.0935% at US$1754.30/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1642) and breakage below will call for 1600. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1748-1690 with risk below 1690, targeting 1654-1660-1770 and 1780-1790. Sell below 1760-1790 keeping stop loss closing above 1800, targeting 1740-1729-1704 and 1690-1674.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,748-1,740
S2     1,720
S3     1,704-1,690
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,754-1,760
R2     1,770
R3     1,780-1,790

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.982

Buy
20-DMA   1721.34 Sell
50-DMA  

1716.88

Sell
100-DMA   1659.34 Buy
200-DMA   1580.91 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   7.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$18.02/oz and low of US$17.63/oz settled up by 0.339% at US$17.73/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (16.93), breakage below will lead to 16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.50-15.55 targeting 18.00-18.40-18.95 and 19.60-20.10; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 18.00-20.10 with stop loss above 20.10; targeting 16.90-16.50-16.10 and 15.80-15.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.50-17.25
S2     16.90
S3     16.30-16.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     18.00-18.55
R2     18.95
R3     19.60-20.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.514 Buy
20-DMA   17.52 Buy
50-DMA   16.24 Buy
100-DMA   16.25 Buy
200-DMA   16.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   29.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.541 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US40.75/bbl, intraday low of US$39.135/bbl and settled down by 0.216% to close at US$40.48/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 40.50-34.00 with risk daily closing below 34.00 and targeting 38.90-39.50-40.10 and 41.00-42.00. Sell in between 38.90-42.10 with stop loss at 42.10; targeting 38.00-37.10-36.00 and 34.90-33.90-33.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     40.50-39.50
S2     38.90
S3     37.90-37.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     41.20-42.00
R2     43.50
R3     44.00-44.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   69.03 Sell
20-DMA   37.40 Buy
50-DMA   28.83 Buy
100-DMA   33.91 Buy
200-DMA   45.43 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   69.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   2.453 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1167/EUR, high of US$1.1269/EUR and settled the day up by 0.691% to close at US$1.1259/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1250-1.1030 with risk below 1.1030, targeting 1.1300-1.1360-1.1400 and 1.1450-1.1495. Sell below 1.1300-1.1495 targeting 1.1235-1.1190-1.1150 and 1.1090-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1250-1.1205
S2     1.1150
S3     1.1090-1.1030

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1300-1.1360
R2     1.1400
R3     1.1450-1.1500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.032 Buy
20-DMA   1.1187 Buy
50-DMA   1.0996 Buy
100-DMA   1.0984 Sell
200-DMA   1.1025 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   23.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2334/GBP, high of US$1.2476/GBP and settled the day up by 1.029% to close at US$1.2467/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2470-1.2900 with targets at 1.2410 and 1.2320-1.2250-1.2165 stop-loss should be 1.2900. Buy above 1.2550-1.2200 with targets 1.2650-1.2700 and 1.2770 -1.2800-1.2850 with stop loss closing below 1.2200.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2410-1.2320
S2     1.2240
S3     1.2165-1.2100

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2470
R2     1.2550
R3     1.2600-1.2650

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.554

Buy
20-DMA   1.2511 Buy
50-DMA   1.2507 Buy
100-DMA   1.2507 Sell
200-DMA   1.2682 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   19.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY106.72/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.00/USD and settled the day up by 0.168% at JPY106.90/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.50-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 106.90-106.20-105.60 and 105.00-104.50. Long positions above 106.90-104.00 with targets of 107.90-108.40 and 109.40-110.20-110.90 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.00-106.50
S2     105.50
S3     105.00-104.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.40-107. 90
R2     108.40
R3     109.40-110.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.904 Buy
20-DMA   107.85 Buy
50-DMA   107.53 Sell
100-DMA   108.13 Sell
200-DMA   108.41 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   37.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.161 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING