AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar has maintained its strong tone in early European trade Friday, with traders seeking out the safe haven as the number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. continue to grow. Economic data pointed to an economic recovery in the U.S. Thursday, with another small drop in jobless claims and a substantial rise in durable goods orders. Friday offers up spending data as well as Michigan sentiment numbers. However, this has tended to be overshadowed by news of a record number of new coronavirus cases throughout the U.S., with state health departments reporting a total of over 37,000 new cases on Thursday. That said, the second virus wave no longer appears to be a U.S.-only story. The development in EM/developing countries continues to be problematic for their recoveries and not least tourism. Remaining in the emerging market sphere, the first round of the presidential election is set to be held in Poland on Sunday. The dollar was down on Friday morning in Asia, with investors retreating from the greenback whilst helping it retain its safe-haven asset title as the number of COVID-19 case continue to rise. The total number of cases globally is almost at 9.6 million as of June 26, according to Johns Hopkins data. Some parts of the U.S. reported a spike in cases, with Texas announcing on Thursday that it is delaying its re-opening. Meanwhile, 1.480 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits over the past week, more than the predicted 1.3 million claims in forecasts prepared by Investing.com. Although down from the previous week’s 1.540 million claims, the figures indicated that employees are continuing to lose their jobs from the economic impact of COVID-19. The dollar held firm on Friday as caution over rapid rises in U.S. coronavirus cases cast doubt over the reopening of the economy, keeping the allure of its safe-haven value. Also supporting the greenback was the broader rise in corporate demand typically seen towards the end of the month. That helped the dollar stay firm despite the stubbornly upbeat risk appetite seen in global equity markets, which comes even as new coronavirus infections surge. The governor of Texas temporarily halted the state's reopening on Thursday as COVID-19 infections and hospitalisations surged and new daily cases around the country climbed to record levels. Data on Thursday showed weak demand is forcing U.S. employers to lay off workers, keeping new applications for unemployment benefits extraordinarily high, even as businesses have reopened. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits stood at a seasonally adjusted 1.48 million for the week ended June 20, down 60,000 from a week earlier but still double their peak during the 2007-2009 Great Recession. More economic data is due next week, including U.S. jobs and manufacturing surveys but ahead of that trade could be moved by month-end and quarter-end flows, traders said. The Turkish lira stood flat after the country's central bank unexpectedly halted a nearly year-long easing cycle on Thursday, by keeping its key interest rate unchanged at 8.25% and citing upward pressure on inflation.
  • Oil was up on Friday morning in Asia, extending gains from the previous session over hopes of continued fuel demand recovery. Satellite traffic data from China, Europe and the United States indicated a healthy increase in levels, boosting investor sentiment and confidence in demand recovery But continuing fears of an oversupply halted the black liquid's advances. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated a 1.442 million-barrel build on Wednesday, a much bigger build than the predicted 299,000-barrel one in forecasts prepared by Investing.com. EIA's forecast corroborated the American Petroleum Institute's (API) estimate of a build in the supply on Tuesday. Investors are also monitoring a surge of COVID-19 cases in parts of the U.S., including big oil consumer states such as Florida and Texas. Globally, there are now almost 9.6 million COVID-19 cases as of June 26 according to Johns Hopkins University, with fears of a second wave continuing to dampen investor sentiment. Oil prices rose on Friday, extending gains on optimism about a recovery in fuel demand worldwide, despite a surge in coronavirus infections in some U.S. states and signs of a revival in U.S. crude production. Overall, commodities markets were taking a positive view on the global recovery on Friday despite worries about coronavirus flare-ups, said Avtar Sandu, senior manager commodities at Phillip Futures in Singapore. Analysts said satellite data showing a strong pick-up in traffic in China, Europe and across the United States pointed to an improvement in fuel demand. Congestion in Shanghai in the past few weeks was higher than in the same period last year, while in Moscow traffic was back to last year's levels, data provided to Reuters by location technology company TomTom showed. However, there are fears a spike in COVID-19 infections in southern U.S. states could stall the demand recovery, especially as some of those states, such as Florida and Texas, are among the biggest gasoline consumers. The global economic outlook has also worsened or at best stayed about the same in the past month, a majority of economists polled by Reuters said, and the recession underway is expected to be deeper than earlier predicted. The prospect of increased U.S. crude production also kept a lid on gains on Friday A survey of executives in the top U.S. oil and gas producing region by the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank found more than half of executives who cut production expect to resume some output by the end of July.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
26th June 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,770-1,780 1,790 1,800-1,810
Silver-XAG 18.00-18.55 18.95 19.60-20.10
Crude Oil 39.50-40.60 41.20 42.00-43.40
EURO/USD 1.1300-1.1360 1.1400 1.1450-1.1500
GBP/USD 1.2490 1.2550 1.2600-1.2650
USD/JPY 107.90 108.40 109.40-110.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
26th June 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,760-1,754 1,748 1,740-1,720
Silver-XAG 17.50-17.25 16.90 ¬16.30-16.00
Crude Oil 38.00-37.10 36.50 35.50-34.60
EURO/USD 1.1205 1.1150 1.1090-1.1030
GBP/USD 1.2410-1.2320 1.2240 1.2165-1.2100
USD/JPY 107.00-106.50 105.50 105.00-104.30

Intra-Day Strategy (26th June 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1768.76/oz and low of US$1753.46/oz. Gold up 0.494% at US$1763.08/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1642) and breakage below will call for 1600. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1748-1690 with risk below 1690, targeting 1654-1660-1770 and 1780-1790. Sell below 1760-1790 keeping stop loss closing above 1800, targeting 1740-1729-1704 and 1690-1674.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,760-1,754
S2     1,748
S3     1,740-1,720
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,770-1,780
R2     1,790
R3     1,800-1,810

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

64.982

Buy
20-DMA   1727.36 Sell
50-DMA  

1718.84

Sell
100-DMA   1663.34 Buy
200-DMA   1583.91 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   7.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$17.80/oz and low of US$17.42/oz settled down by 1.20% at US$17.76/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (16.93), breakage below will lead to 16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.50-15.55 targeting 18.00-18.40-18.95 and 19.60-20.10; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 18.00-20.10 with stop loss above 20.10; targeting 16.90-16.50-16.10 and 15.80-15.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.50-17.25
S2     16.90
S3     ¬16.30-16.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     18.00-18.55
R2     18.95
R3     19.60-20.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.514 Buy
20-DMA   17.52 Buy
50-DMA   16.24 Buy
100-DMA   16.25 Buy
200-DMA   16.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   29.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.541 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US40.451/bbl, intraday low of US$37.12/bbl and settled up by 2.33% to close at US$38.97/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 38.10-34.00 with risk daily closing below 34.00 and targeting 39.50-40.60 and 41.20-42.00-43.40. Sell in between 39.50-43.40 with stop loss at 43.40; targeting 38.00-37.10-36.00 and 34.90-33.90-33.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     38.00-37.10
S2     36.50
S3     35.50-34.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     39.50-40.60
R2     41.20
R3     42.00-43.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.03 Sell
20-DMA   37.87 Buy
50-DMA   30.30 Buy
100-DMA   33.65 Buy
200-DMA   45.23 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   29.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   2.453 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1189/EUR, high of US$1.1259/EUR and settled the day down by 2.679% to close at US$1.1216/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1250-1.1030 with risk below 1.1030, targeting 1.1300-1.1360-1.1400 and 1.1450-1.1495. Sell below 1.1300-1.1495 targeting 1.1235-1.1190-1.1150 and 1.1090-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1205
S2     1.1150
S3     1.1090-1.1030

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1300-1.1360
R2     1.1400
R3     1.1450-1.1500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.032 Buy
20-DMA   1.1187 Buy
50-DMA   1.0996 Buy
100-DMA   1.0984 Sell
200-DMA   1.1025 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   23.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2388/GBP, high of US$1.2463/GBP and settled the day down by 0.002% to close at US$1.2417/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2490-1.2900 with targets at 1.2410-1.2320-1.2250 and 1.2165-1.2100 stop-loss should be 1.2900. Buy above 1.2410-1.1200 with targets 1.2490-1.2550-1.2650 and 1.2700-1.2770 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2410-1.2320
S2     1.2240
S3     1.2165-1.2100

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2490
R2     1.2550
R3     1.2600-1.2650

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.554

Buy
20-DMA   1.2530 Buy
50-DMA   1.2418 Buy
100-DMA   1.2495 Sell
200-DMA   1.2683 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   33.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY o Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY106.80/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.44/USD and settled the day down by 0.490% at JPY107.18/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.00-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 106.50-105.60 and 105.00-104.50. Long positions above 106.50-104.00 with targets of 107.00-107.90-108.40 and 109.40-110.20 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.00-106.50
S2     105.50
S3     105.00-104.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.90
R2     108.40
R3     109.40-110.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.904 Buy
20-DMA   107.61 Buy
50-DMA   107.38 Sell
100-DMA   108.00 Sell
200-DMA   108.38 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   35.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.161 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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