AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar has drifted lower in early European trade Monday, as sentiment surrounding currency traders continues to fluctuate between optimism over a global economic recovery and worry as the number of coronavirus cases continues to grow. The World Health Organization reported almost 190,000 new cases for the 24-hour period through early Sunday, a new high. This means the total number of global Covid-19 cases has now topped the 10 million mark, with more than 500,000 deaths recorded globally. America continues to be hard hit, accounting for over a quarter of all cases. A number of the more populous states, including California, Texas and Florida, have had to curtail the opening of a number of businesses, as cases nationwide soar to record levels. Economic data released globally has tended to suggest a swift recovery. Profits at China's industrial firms rose for the first time in six months in May, while in the U.S. retail sales have bounced strongly and economists are forecasting there will be three million jobs added in June after a shock 2.5 million gain a month earlier. The offshore yuan strengthened 0.2% against the dollar in response. Investors will now look to eurozone confidence data, at 05:00 AM ET (0900 GMT) for the latest gauge of the region's economic health, as well as to German and Spanish preliminary inflation numbers for June. Additionally, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is set to host French President Emmanuel Macron for talks on Monday, with the two leaders likely to discuss what strategy to employ to get agreement on the recovery fund for the region. Hopes for a united EU response to the virus and a swift regional recovery have helped the single currency post gains of around 1.5% against the greenback so far this month. Elsewhere, the EU-U.K. free trade negotiations are scheduled to restart this week in Brussels, amid few signs of any progress. Sterling hit a month-low on Friday, and has fallen by 0.7% over the last week against both the U.S. dollar and the single currency. U.K. consumer credit and mortgage lending data are due at 4:30 AM (8:30 GMT).
  • The dollar struggled to make headway on Monday, and riskier currencies inched ahead, as investor sentiment swung between hopes for a global economic recovery and fears that a fresh wave of coronavirus cases could undermine the revival Against a basket of currencies (=USD) the greenback retreated from a one-week high hit on Friday and dipped 0.2% to 97.303. The trade-exposed Australian and New Zealand dollars rose about 0.2% to near the middle of recent ranges. California ordered some bars to close on Sunday, following similar moves in Texas and Florida, as cases nationwide soar to record levels. Washington state and the city of San Francisco have paused re-opening plans. Yet elsewhere - from New York to Europe and Asia - re-openings continue apace and data illustrates a swift rebound. For now the dollar has dithered rather than deflated. The Aussie and kiwi are headed for monthly gains around 3% but made most of that ground in the early days of June and have tracked sideways since then. Simultaneous safe-haven gains also point to heightened caution, even as the thirst for dollars has eased off as the U.S. Federal Reserve has flooded markets with liquidity. Elsewhere, sterling bounced 0.3% from a month-low plumbed on Friday as investors fretted about whether Britain can settle a post-Brexit trade pact with the European Union. A fresh round of talks is due to begin this week. The jump in U.S. cases has been most pronounced in a handful of Southern and Western states that reopened earlier and more aggressively and investors are closely watching to see the extent and severity of renewed restrictions Elsewhere, rollbacks of lockdowns seem to be trouble free and outbreaks in other global hotspots, from Germany to Melbourne and Beijing appear localised, for now. And economic data continues to surprise on the upside. Profits at China's industrial firms rose for the first time in six months in May, China's national bureau of statistics said on Sunday, suggesting the recovery is gaining traction. Investors are looking to eurozone confidence data due at 0900 GMT and German inflation figures at 1200 GMT for the latest gauge of the region's economic health. It is also an important week for U.S. data with the ISM manufacturing report on Wednesday and payrolls on Thursday, ahead of the Independence Day holiday. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is also testifying on Tuesday. The euro (EUR=) is set to wrap up its best two months against the dollar in a year and a half, as hopes for a united EU response to the virus and a swift regional recovery propel the single currency ahead about 2.5% since the beginning of May.
  • Oil continued its drop on Monday morning in Asia, following last week’s plummet. Investor worries over demand were amplified after COVID-19 cases surpassed 10 million and deaths surpassed half a million as of June 29, according to Johns Hopkins University data. The U.S. is seeing a big surge in virus cases with some states hitting an all-time high. Only two states, Connecticut and Rhode Island, reported a decline in new cases compared to last week Asia also recorded a stark increase in infections in countries such as Indonesia, Philippines and India, with India recording its biggest surge in cases over a 24-hour period for a second consecutive day. The country recorded 9,906 new cases as of June 29. Meanwhile, Chinese state-owned oil refining giants including China Petroleum (NYSE:SNP) & Chemical Corporation, PetroChina, Cnooc  and  Sinochem Group are reportedly in discussions to form a crude oil purchasing group to increase their collective bargaining power and avoid bidding wars. Although the discussions are still private and ongoing, the proposal is said to have already won the support of the Chinese central government and relevant industry watchdogs. If the formation materializes, the group will be the latest joint procurement initiative since 2003 in China’s commodity sector and could drastically increase China’s influence in the oil market.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
29th June 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,770-1,780 1,790 1,800-1,810
Silver-XAG 18.00-18.55 18.95 19.60-20.10
Crude Oil 39.50-40.60 41.20 42.00-43.40
EURO/USD 1.1300-1.1360 1.1400 1.1450-1.1500
GBP/USD 1.2410-1.2490 1.2550 1.2600-1.2650
USD/JPY 107.90 108.40 109.40-110.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
29th June 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,760-1,754 1,748 1,740-1,720
Silver-XAG 17.50-17.25 16.90 ¬16.30-16.00
Crude Oil 37.60-37.10 36.50 35.50-34.60
EURO/USD 1.1205 1.1150 1.1090-1.1030
GBP/USD 1.2320-1.2240 1.2165 1.2100-1.2050
USD/JPY 107.00-106.50 105.50 105.00-104.30

Intra-Day Strategy (29th June 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1771.94/oz and low of US$1747.35/oz. Gold up 0.459% at US$1771.21/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1642) and breakage below will call for 1600. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1760-1700 with risk below 1700, targeting 1770-1780 and 1790-1805. Sell below 1770-1800 keeping stop loss closing above 1800, targeting 1760-1754-1740 and 1729-1704.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,760-1,754
S2     1,748
S3     1,740-1,720
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,770-1,780
R2     1,790
R3     1,800-1,810

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

64.982

Buy
20-DMA   1727.36 Sell
50-DMA  

1718.84

Sell
100-DMA   1663.34 Buy
200-DMA   1583.91 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   7.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$17.94/oz and low of US$17.48/oz settled up by 0.09% at US$17.79/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (16.93), breakage below will lead to 16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.50-15.55 targeting 18.00-18.40-18.95 and 19.60-20.10; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 18.00-20.10 with stop loss above 20.10; targeting 16.90-16.50-16.10 and 15.80-15.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.50-17.25
S2     16.90
S3     ¬16.30-16.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     18.00-18.55
R2     18.95
R3     19.60-20.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.514 Buy
20-DMA   17.52 Buy
50-DMA   16.24 Buy
100-DMA   16.25 Buy
200-DMA   16.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   29.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.541 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US39.36/bbl, intraday low of US$37.12/bbl and settled down by 2.61% to close at US$38.11/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 38.10-34.00 with risk daily closing below 34.00 and targeting 39.50-40.60 and 41.20-42.00-43.40. Sell in between 39.50-43.40 with stop loss at 43.40; targeting 38.00-37.10-36.00 and 34.90-33.90-33.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     37.60-37.10
S2     36.50
S3     35.50-34.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     39.50-40.60
R2     41.20
R3     42.00-43.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.03 Sell
20-DMA   37.87 Buy
50-DMA   30.30 Buy
100-DMA   33.65 Buy
200-DMA   45.23 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   29.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   2.453 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1194/EUR, high of US$1.1238/EUR and settled the day up by 0.0163% to close at US$1.1218/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1250-1.1030 with risk below 1.1030, targeting 1.1300-1.1360-1.1400 and 1.1450-1.1495. Sell below 1.1300-1.1495 targeting 1.1235-1.1190-1.1150 and 1.1090-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1205
S2     1.1150
S3     1.1090-1.1030

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1300-1.1360
R2     1.1400
R3     1.1450-1.1500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.032 Buy
20-DMA   1.1187 Buy
50-DMA   1.0996 Buy
100-DMA   1.0984 Sell
200-DMA   1.1025 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   23.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2313/GBP, high of US$1.2436/GBP and settled the day down by 0.653% to close at US$1.2335/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2410-1.2700 with targets at 1.2320-1.2250 and 1.2165-1.2100 stop-loss should be 1.2900. Buy above 1.2320-1.1200 with targets 1.2410-1.2490-1.2550 and 1.2650-1.2700-1.2770 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2320-1.2240
S2     1.2165
S3     1.2100-1.2050

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2410-1.2490
R2     1.2550
R3     1.2600-1.2650

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

42.554

Buy
20-DMA   1.2535 Buy
50-DMA   1.2410 Buy
100-DMA   1.2473 Sell
200-DMA   1.2681 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   19.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY o Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY106.80/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.35/USD and settled the day down by 0.023% at JPY107.21/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.00-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 106.50-105.60 and 105.00-104.50. Long positions above 106.50-104.00 with targets of 107.00-107.90-108.40 and 109.40-110.20 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.00-106.50
S2     105.50
S3     105.00-104.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.90
R2     108.40
R3     109.40-110.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.904 Buy
20-DMA   107.61 Buy
50-DMA   107.38 Sell
100-DMA   108.00 Sell
200-DMA   108.38 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   35.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.161 Sell

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