AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar retreated on Tuesday morning in Asia, giving up it gains from the last session as investors balance positive trade data with increasing COVID-19 figures. China reported a higher-than-expected manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index of 50.9 earlier in the day. Meanwhile, COVID-19 continues its rampage, with over 10.2 million cases as of June 30 according to Johns Hopkins University data. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned on Monday that the outlook for the U.S. economy is "extraordinarily uncertain" and is dependent on the virus being contained and government measures to support recovery. Some U.S. states have reported a recent surge of cases as they prepared to re-open and restart their economies. Cirque de Soleil filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday after COVID-19 forced the group to cancel shows and lay off employees. GBP boosted by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s pledge on Monday to take a “Rooseveltian approach to the U.K.” and increase spending. But doubts remain on how the British government will pay for the approach, as well as on whether a trade pact between the U.K. and the European Union will be signed.
  • Safe-haven currencies were on the back foot on Tuesday as hopes of an economic turnaround boosted stock prices while sterling was under pressure after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised a "Rooseveltian" boost to public spending. Spurring fresh optimism on the U.S. economy was pending home sales data, which showed that housing market activity had quickly recovered in May from a plunge triggered by the pandemic. Pending home sales, based on contracts signed last month, surged 44.3%, compared to economists' forecast for 18.9% rise. The dollar has climbed to 107.59 yen, having touched a three-week high of 107.885, though it was capped by its 100-day moving average around that level. Sterling traded at $1.2297., after sliding to a one-month low of $1.2252 on Monday on concerns about how Britain's government will pay for its planned infrastructure program following Prime Minister Johnson's promise to increase spending. There are also doubts about whether Britain will seal a trade pact with the European Union as little progress has been made in agreeing on Britain's future relationship with the bloc, which it exited on Jan. 31. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said late on Monday the outlook for the world's biggest economy is "extraordinarily uncertain" and will depend both on containing the coronavirus and on government efforts to support the recovery. The epidemic showed little sign of abating as Arizona ordered the closure of bars and gyms, joining other sun belt states like Florida and Texas in reversing reopenings. Los Angeles County also recorded an "alarming" one-day spike of new COVID-19 infections. The entertainment group filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday as the pandemic forced the famed circus operator to cancel shows and lay off its artistes On the diplomatic front, the United States began eliminating Hong Kong's special status under U.S. law on Monday, halting defence exports and restricting the territory's access to high technology products as China prepares controversial national security legislation for Hong Kong.
  • Oil was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, giving up its gains from the previous session as demand worries dampened investor sentiment. Libya's state oil company National Oil Corporation said overnight that it was making progress on talks with neighboring countries to lift an export blockade, leading to fears of an oversupply in the midst of fragile demand. The country makes up around 1% of global oil supply. Demand recovery has been hit by ever-increasing COVID-19 numbers, with global cases topping 10.2 million as of June 30, according to Johns Hopkins University data. Investors will be looking at crude oil supply data from the API, due later in the day. Oil prices fell on Tuesday as optimism for a straightforward recovery in fuel demand faded and a looming increase in supply weighed on the market, with Libya's state oil company flagging progress on talks to resume exports. Optimism on Monday had been based on strong growth in U.S. pending home sales, bolstering belief that global fuel demand is rising steadily as major economies reopen after coronavirus lockdowns. But at the same time, coronavirus cases continue to rise in southern and southwestern U.S. states. Bulls will be looking for more signs of a demand recovery in data due on Tuesday from the American Petroleum Institute industry group, and from the U.S. government on Wednesday. A preliminary Reuters poll showed analysts expect U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell from record highs last week and gasoline inventories decreased for a third straight week. On the supply side, investors are watching to see whether Libya, which can produce about 1% of global oil supply, is able to resume exports, blockaded since January amid a civil war.
  • Gold was up on Tuesday morning in Asia and looked set to close the second quarter of the year with its biggest quarterly advance since 2016. There are over 10.2 million cases globally as of June 30, according to Johns Hopkins University. The World Health Organization also issued a grim warning that the world could still see the worst of the pandemic due to a lack of global cooperation. Investors will also be looking to U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services later in the day for clues on further stimulus measures. But Powell warned on Monday that U.S. recovery from the virus was contingent on containing the virus as well as U.S. government measures. Meanwhile, gold also received a boost from rising U.S.-Sino tensions after China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee passed national security laws for Hong Kong and Macau earlier in the day. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Wednesday that the U.S. would suspend preferential treatment regulations for Hong Kong, which include export license exceptions.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th June 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,770-1,780 1,790 1,800-1,810
Silver-XAG 18.00-18.55 18.95 19.60-20.10
Crude Oil 39.50-40.60 41.20 42.00-43.40
EURO/USD 1.1300-1.1360 1.1400 1.1450-1.1500
GBP/USD 1.2320-1.2410 1.2490 1.2550-1.2600
USD/JPY 107.90 108.40 109.40-110.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th June 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,748 1,748 1,740-1,720
Silver-XAG 17.50-17.25 16.90 ¬16.30-16.00
Crude Oil 38.50-37.60 37.10 36.50-35.50
EURO/USD 1.1205 1.1150 1.1090-1.1030
GBP/USD 1.2250 1.2165 1.2100-1.2050
USD/JPY 107.50-106.50 105.50 105.00-104.30

Intra-Day Strategy (30th June 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1775.39/oz and low of US$1765.59/oz. Gold down 0.199% at US$1771.85/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1642) and breakage below will call for 1600. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1760-1700 with risk below 1700, targeting 1770-1780 and 1790-1805. Sell below 1770-1800 keeping stop loss closing above 1800, targeting 1760-1754-1740 and 1729-1704.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,748
S2     1,748
S3     1,740-1,720
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,770-1,780
R2     1,790
R3     1,800-1,810

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

64.982

Buy
20-DMA   1727.36 Sell
50-DMA  

1718.84

Sell
100-DMA   1663.34 Buy
200-DMA   1583.91 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   7.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$17.94/oz and low of US$17.67/oz settled up by 0.0673% at US$17.82/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (16.93), breakage below will lead to 16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.50-15.55 targeting 18.00-18.40-18.95 and 19.60-20.10; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 18.00-20.10 with stop loss above 20.10; targeting 16.90-16.50-16.10 and 15.80-15.40.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.50-17.25
S2     16.90
S3     ¬16.30-16.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     18.00-18.55
R2     18.95
R3     19.60-20.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.514 Buy
20-DMA   17.52 Buy
50-DMA   16.24 Buy
100-DMA   16.25 Buy
200-DMA   16.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   29.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.541 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US39.89/bbl, intraday low of US$37.56/bbl and settled down by 2.61% to close at US$39.56/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 39.10-34.00 with risk daily closing below 34.00 and targeting 39.50-40.60 and 41.20-42.00-43.40. Sell in between 39.50-43.40 with stop loss at 43.40; targeting 38.00-37.10-36.00 and 34.90-33.90-33.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     38.50-37.60
S2     37.10
S3     36.50-35.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     39.50-40.60
R2     41.20
R3     42.00-43.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.870 Sell
20-DMA   38.39 Buy
50-DMA   31.45 Buy
100-DMA   33.32 Buy
200-DMA   44.94 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   46.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.801 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1214/EUR, high of US$1.1287/EUR and settled the day up by 0.232% to close at US$1.1240/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1250-1.1030 with risk below 1.1030, targeting 1.1300-1.1360-1.1400 and 1.1450-1.1495. Sell below 1.1300-1.1495 targeting 1.1235-1.1190-1.1150 and 1.1090-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1205
S2     1.1150
S3     1.1090-1.1030

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1300-1.1360
R2     1.1400
R3     1.1450-1.1500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.032 Buy
20-DMA   1.1187 Buy
50-DMA   1.0996 Buy
100-DMA   1.0984 Sell
200-DMA   1.1025 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   23.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2250/GBP, high of US$1.2388/GBP and settled the day down by 0.304% to close at US$1.2297/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2320-1.2600 with targets at 1.2250-1.2165-1.2100 and 1.2050-1.2000 stop-loss should be 1.2900. Buy above 1.2250-1.1200 with targets 1.2320-1.2410-1.2490 and 1.2550-1.2650-1.2700 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2250
S2     1.2165
S3     1.2100-1.2050

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2320-1.2410
R2     1.2490
R3     1.2550-1.2600

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

40.554

Buy
20-DMA   1.2520 Buy
50-DMA   1.2410 Buy
100-DMA   1.2466 Sell
200-DMA   1.2680 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   13.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY107.03/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.87/USD and settled the day up by 0.427% at JPY107.57/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.90-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 107.50-106.50-105.60 and 105.00-104.50. Long positions above 107.50-104.00 with targets of 107.90-108.40 and 109.40-110.20 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.50-106.50
S2     105.50
S3     105.00-104.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.90
R2     108.40
R3     109.40-110.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.904 Buy
20-DMA   107.58 Buy
50-DMA   107.37 Sell
100-DMA   107.90 Sell
200-DMA   108.37 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   82.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1448 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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