AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar pushed higher in early European trade Friday, helped by its safe haven status as corona virus cases continued to surge in the United States and unemployment data pointed to a slow recovery in the labor market. The number of corona virus cases in the U.S., the world’s economic engine, continues to grow, with more than 60,000 new Covid-19 infections reported on Thursday. With populous states like California, Florida and Texas recently breaking records, and having to restart some social distancing measures, hopes are fading for an aggressive economic revival. The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits dropped more than expected last week, data showed Thursday, but the figure remained above one million for the 16th straight week. Continuing claims also remained above 18 million, suggesting the labor market would take years to recover from the pandemic. However, while the dollar gained against the euro Friday--EUR/USD was down 0.2% at 1.1263--it’s still a little lower against the single currency year to date. And further losses look likely Attention will now turn to the meeting of the EU leaders next week, to see if there can be agreement allowing the proposed 750 billion euro recovery fund to be distributed to the economies hit hardest by Covid-19 in the region, although also of interest with be Fitch's review of its credit rating for Italy. The dollar was up on Friday morning in Asia. Investors turned to the safe-haven asset as the U.S. reported over 60,000 COVID-19 cases on Thursday, and dampened hopes of an economic recovery. The U.S accounts for over 3.1 million of all cases. There are over 12.2 million cases and 550,000 deaths globally as of July 10, according to John Hopkins University data. Some states, including Florida, Texas and California, reported a record number of new cases on Thursday. Another event giving the dollar a boost was Thursday’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling allowing prosecutors access to U.S. President Donald Trump’s financial record. The ruling dealt a blow to Trump’s battle to keep the details of his finances under wraps and is an unwelcome surprise to his for re-election in November.
  • Asian shares and U.S. stock futures fell on Friday as record-breaking new corona virus cases in several U.S. states stoked concern about economic recovery, while investors looked forward to earnings season. Shares in China fell 0.72% from a five-year high, the first decline in more than a week, as state media discouraged retail investors from chasing the market higher and worries about Sino-U.S. tensions re-emerged. The Antipodean currencies fell and the yen rose as traders shunned risk and sought safe havens. More than 60,500 new COVID-19 infections were reported across the United States on Thursday, the largest single-day tally of cases by any country since the virus emerged late last year in China. That heightened concerns that renewed lockdowns could hurt the economic recovery. The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits dropped to a near four-month low last week, data showed. But investors remained cautious as the report also said a record 32.9 mn people were collecting unemployment checks in the third week of June, supporting expectations the labor market would take years to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. State funds also said they would reduce equity holdings, which investors interpreted as a another sign that Beijing prefers to take some steam out of the recent stock rally. In addition, the United States on Thursday imposed sanctions on the highest-ranking Chinese official yet over alleged human rights abuses against the Uighur Muslim minority, a move likely to further ratchet up tensions between Washington and Beijing.
  • Oil prices fell on Friday, adding to steep losses from the previous session, and were headed for weekly declines on worries that renewed lockdowns following a surge in coronavirus cases in the United States and elsewhere could suppress fuel demand. Brent looks set for a weekly decline of nearly 3% and U.S. crude for a fall of around 4.5%. Trading was quiet with Singapore on holiday for an election. While many analysts are expecting economies and fuel demand to bounce back from the pandemic, record daily increases in coronavirus infections in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, raised concerns about the pace of any recovery. More than 60,500 new COVID-19 cases were reported in the United States on Thursday, setting a daily record, with Americans being told to take new precautions. The tally was also the highest daily count yet for any country since the pathogen emerged in China late last year. In Australia, the government on Friday will consider reducing the number of citizens allowed to return to the country from overseas, after authorities ordered a new lockdown of the country's second-most populous city, Melbourne. Oil inventories remain bloated due to the evaporation of demand for gasoline, diesel and other fuels during the initial outbreak. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by nearly 6 million barrels last week after analysts had forecast a decline of just over half that figure. Oil was down on Friday morning in Asia, recording a weekly loss as the COVID-19 pandemic takes a turn for the worse in the U.S. and dampens demand. One of the largest oil consumers in the world, the U.S. recorded 60,000 new cases on Thursday alone. Some of the largest states such as Texas, California and Florida all reported a record number of deaths. While some investors were hoping for signs of continued economic recovery, the ever-increasing number of new cases globally could hamper this recovery. Some countries are already re-imposing lockdowns, with Melbourne, Australia, on day three of a second lockdown. Hong Kong also tightened social distancing measures on Thursday, limiting group sizes to eight as the number of cases continues to increase in the city in what is being called a third wave of cases.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
10th July 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,822-1,831 1,840 1,849-1858
Silver-XAG 18.95 19.60-20.10 20.50
Crude Oil 40.00-41.20 42.00 43.40-44.00
EURO/USD 1.1300-1.1360 1.1400 1.1450-1.1500
GBP/USD 1.2600-1.2680 1.2760 1.2810-1.2870
USD/JPY 107.50-107.90 108.40 109.40-110.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
10th July 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,800-1,789 1,780 1,760-1,754
Silver-XAG 18.55-18.00 17.50 ¬17.25-16.90
Crude Oil 39.50 38.50 37.60-37.10
EURO/USD 1.1250 1.1205 1.1150-1.1090
GBP/USD 1.2490 1.2430-1.2320 1.2250
USD/JPY 106.50 105.50 105.00-104.30

Intra-Day Strategy (10th July 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1816.02/oz and low of US$1795.48/oz. Gold down 0.313% at US$1793.97/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1642) and breakage below will call for 1600. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1800-1727 with risk below 1720, targeting 1822-1831-1840 and 1849-1858. Sell below 1822-1858 keeping stop loss closing above 1858, targeting 1800-1789-1780 and 1760-1754-1748.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,800-1,789
S2     1,780
S3     1,760-1,754
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,822-1,831
R2     1,840
R3     1,849-1858

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

68.982

Buy
20-DMA   1757.32 Buy
50-DMA  

1732.51

Buy
100-DMA   1683.67 Buy
200-DMA   1597.60 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   16.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$19.03/oz and low of US$18.47/oz settled down by 0.139% at US$18.65/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (16.93), breakage below will lead to 16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.50-15.55 targeting 18.00-18.40-18.95 and 19.60-20.10; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 18.00-20.10 with stop loss above 20.10; targeting 17.50-17.25-16.90 and 16.50-16.10-15.80.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     18.55-18.00
S2     17.50
S3     ¬17.25-16.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     18.95
R2     19.60-20.10
R3     20.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.514 Buy
20-DMA   17.86 Buy
50-DMA   17.17 Buy
100-DMA   16.28 Buy
200-DMA   16.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   88.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.359 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US41.05/bbl, intraday low of US$39.37/bbl and settled down by 0.546% to close at US$39.62/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 39.50-37.00 with risk daily closing below 37.00 and targeting 41.20-42.00-43.40 and 44.00-45.00. Sell in between 41.20-44.60 with stop loss at 44.60; targeting 40.60-39.50-38.50 and 37.10-36.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     39.50
S2     38.50
S3     37.60-37.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     40.00-41.20
R2     42.00
R3     43.40-44.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.870 Sell
20-DMA   38.95 Buy
50-DMA   33.85 Buy
100-DMA   32.75 Buy
200-DMA   44.54 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   74.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.819 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1279/EUR, high of US$1.1370/EUR and settled the day down by 0.381% to close at US$1.1283/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1250-1.1030 with risk below 1.1030, targeting 1.1360-1.1400 and 1.1450-1.1495. Sell below 1.1300-1.1495 targeting 1.1235-1.1190-1.1150 and 1.1090-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1250
S2     1.1205
S3     1.1150-1.1090

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1300-1.1360
R2     1.1400
R3     1.1450-1.1500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.032 Buy
20-DMA   1.1187 Buy
50-DMA   1.0996 Buy
100-DMA   1.0984 Sell
200-DMA   1.1025 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   23.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2591/GBP, high of US$1.2668/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0253% to close at US$1.2605/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2600-1.2950 with targets at 1.2490-1.2410 and 1.2320-1.2250-1.2165 stop-loss should be 1.2950. Buy above 1.2490-1.2100 with targets 1.2600-1.2680-1.2760-1.2810 and 1.2870-1.2950 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2490
S2     1.2430-1.2320
S3     1.2250

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2600-1.2680
R2     1.2760
R3     1.2810-1.2870

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.904

Buy
20-DMA   1.2473 Buy
50-DMA   1.2424 Buy
100-DMA   1.2437 Sell
200-DMA   1.2684 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   77.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY107.09/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.39/USD and settled the day down by 0.050% at JPY107.19/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.00-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 106.50-105.60 and 105.00-104.50. Long positions above 107.50-104.00 with targets of 107.90-108.40 and 109.40-110.20 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.50
S2     105.50
S3     105.00-104.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.50-107.90
R2     108.40
R3     109.40-110.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.904 Buy
20-DMA   107.58 Buy
50-DMA   107.37 Sell
100-DMA   107.90 Sell
200-DMA   108.37 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   82.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1448 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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