AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar edged down in Asian trade on Monday as investors looked to looming economic data from around the world and U.S. corporate earnings to gauge whether the markets' guarded optimism on the economic outlook is justified. The greenback had ended its third week of losses on Friday as investors bought into risk-sensitive currencies on bets that the worst of the pandemic's sweeping impact was over. U.S. coronavirus cases surged over the weekend, as Florida reported an increase of more than 15,000 new cases in 24 hours, a record for any state, surpassing a peak hit in New York in April. Hopes for development of drugs and vaccines for the disease are also supporting risk sentiment as do economic indicators that have so far shown a recovery from lockdowns. A weekly gauge of consumer confidence in Australia has dropped after a spike in infections in Melbourne and that could be echoed in the United States, where the magnitude of the outbreak is much larger, he noted. U.S. consumer inflation figures for June are due on Tuesday while retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, are released on Thursday. The U.S. corporate earnings season will start this week, providing another window to assess the scale of the damage as well as the recovery, from the pandemic. Looming large for the common currency was a planned EU summit on July 17-18, where leaders need to bridge gaps on long-term budget and economic stimulus plans. European Council President Charles Michel proposed a smaller joint EU budget for 2021-27 than previously envisaged to placate thrifty countries in the north. Investors also looked to China, where economic recovery is gaining momentum as the outbreak has largely been contained. China will release its June trade data on Tuesday and a batch of other data, including second quarter GDP, on Thursday.
  • The dollar was down on Monday morning in Asia, with investors cautiously bullish over the upcoming week of earnings and economic data even as the number of COVID-19 patients shows no sign of slowing down. Florida reported over 15,000 new cases in 24 hours on Sunday, the highest number in any state since records started. Of the almost 12.9 million global cases, over 3.3 million are in the U.S. as of July 13, according to Johns Hopkins University. Hopes for a treatment for the virus, in the form of a vaccine or drug, are an added boost to investor hopes. Investors also cheered recent economic data indicating recovery from COVID-19 after seeing historic lows during lockdowns. The dollar pushed higher in early European trade Friday, helped by its safe haven status as coronavirus cases continued to surge in the United States and unemployment data pointed to a slow recovery in the labor market.
  • The number of coronavirus cases in the U.S., the world’s economic engine, continues to grow, with more than 60,000 new Covid-19 infections reported on Thursday. With populous states like California, Florida and Texas recently breaking records, and having to restart some social distancing measures, hopes are fading for an aggressive economic revival. The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits dropped more than expected last week, data showed Thursday, but the figure remained above one million for the 16th straight week. Continuing claims also remained above 18 million, suggesting the labor market would take years to recover from the pandemic. However, while the dollar gained against the euro Friday--EUR/USD was down 0.2% at 1.1263--it’s still a little lower against the single currency year to date. And further losses look likely. Adding to the sense of a European recovery, French industrial production increased sharply in May, up 19.6%, as lockdowns were eased and factories reopened. Attention will now turn to the meeting of the EU leaders next week, to see if there can be agreement allowing the proposed 750 billion euro recovery fund to be distributed to the economies hit hardest by Covid-19 in the region, although also of interest with be Fitch's review of its credit rating for Italy.
  • Oil was down on Monday morning in Asia, ahead of OPEC’s technical meeting on Wednesday. Investors are expecting OPEC to recommend an easing in existing supply cuts that could reverse oil gains. Oil was up more than 2% on Friday after the International Energy Agency revised its 2020 oil demand upwards by 400,000 barrels per day. However, a worsening COVID-19 situation globally on top of the upcoming OPEC meeting saw the black liquid reverse Friday’s gains. There was also a record increase in global COVID-19 cases on July 12 with a total of 230,370 new cases in 24 hours, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). The hardest hit countries include some of the largest oil consumers such as the U.S., Brazil, India and South Africa, which is expected to further dampen demand. Investors are also looking to the American Petroleum Institute (API)’s upcoming estimate of crude oil supply on Tuesday to assess the risk of an oversupply.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
13th July 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,822-1,831 1,840 1,849-1858
Silver-XAG 19.05 19.60-20.10 20.50
Crude Oil 41.20 42.00 43.40-44.00
EURO/USD 1.1360 1.1400 1.1450-1.1500
GBP/USD 1.2680 1.2760 1.2810-1.2870
USD/JPY 107.50-107.90 108.40 109.40-110.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
13th July 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,800-1,789 1,780 1,760-1,754
Silver-XAG 18.55-18.00 17.50 17.25-16.90
Crude Oil 40.00-39.50 38.50 37.60-37.10
EURO/USD 1.1300-1.1250 1.1205 1.1150-1.1090
GBP/USD 1.2600-1.2490 1.2430 1.2320-1.2250
USD/JPY 106.50 105.50 105.00-104.30

Intra-Day Strategy (13th July 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1810.62/oz and low of US$1794.02/oz. Gold down 0.133% at US$1799.06/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1642) and breakage below will call for 1600. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1800-1727 with risk below 1720, targeting 1822-1831-1840 and 1849-1858. Sell below 1822-1858 keeping stop loss closing above 1858, targeting 1800-1789-1780 and 1760-1754-1748.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,800-1,789
S2     1,780
S3     1,760-1,754
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,822-1,831
R2     1,840
R3     1,849-1858

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

68.982

Buy
20-DMA   1757.32 Buy
50-DMA  

1732.51

Buy
100-DMA   1683.67 Buy
200-DMA   1597.60 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   16.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$18.79/oz and low of US$18.47/oz settled up by 0.434% at US$18.70/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (16.93), breakage below will lead to 16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.50-15.55 targeting 18.00-18.40-18.95 and 19.60-20.10; stop breakage below 15.00. Sell below 18.00-20.10 with stop loss above 20.10; targeting 17.50-17.25-16.90 and 16.50-16.10-15.80.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     18.55-18.00
S2     17.50
S3     17.25-16.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     19.05
R2     19.60-20.10
R3     20.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.514 Buy
20-DMA   17.86 Buy
50-DMA   17.17 Buy
100-DMA   16.28 Buy
200-DMA   16.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   88.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.359 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US40.86/bbl, intraday low of US$38.70/bbl and settled up by 2.20% to close at US$38.70/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 40.00-37.00 with risk daily closing below 37.00 and targeting 41.20-42.00-43.40 and 44.00-45.00. Sell in between 41.20-44.60 with stop loss at 44.60; targeting 40.60-39.50-38.50 and 37.10-36.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     40.00-39.50
S2     38.50
S3     37.60-37.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     41.20
R2     42.00
R3     43.40-44.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.870 Sell
20-DMA   38.95 Buy
50-DMA   33.85 Buy
100-DMA   32.75 Buy
200-DMA   44.54 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   74.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.819 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1251/EUR, high of US$1.1324/EUR and settled the day up by 0.144% to close at US$1.1300/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1300-1.1030 with risk below 1.1030, targeting 1.1360-1.1400 and 1.1450-1.1495. Sell below 1.1360-1.1495 targeting 1.1235-1.1190-1.1150 and 1.1090-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1300-1.1250
S2     1.1205
S3     1.1150-1.1090

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1360
R2     1.1400
R3     1.1450-1.1500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   58.032 Buy
20-DMA   1.1187 Buy
50-DMA   1.0996 Buy
100-DMA   1.0984 Sell
200-DMA   1.1025 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   23.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2566/GBP, high of US$1.2663/GBP and settled the day up by 0.132% to close at US$1.2622/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2600-1.2950 with targets at 1.2490-1.2410 and 1.2320-1.2250-1.2165 stop-loss should be 1.2950. Buy above 1.2490-1.2100 with targets 1.2600-1.2680-1.2760-1.2810 and 1.2870-1.2950 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2600-1.2490
S2     1.2430
S3     1.2320-1.2250

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2680
R2     1.2760
R3     1.2810-1.2870

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.904

Buy
20-DMA   1.2473 Buy
50-DMA   1.2424 Buy
100-DMA   1.2437 Sell
200-DMA   1.2684 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   77.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY106.93/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.25/USD and settled the day down by 0.248% at JPY106.93/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.00-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 106.50-105.60 and 105.00-104.50. Long positions above 107.50-104.00 with targets of 107.90-108.40 and 109.40-110.20 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.50
S2     105.50
S3     105.00-104.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.50-107.90
R2     108.40
R3     109.40-110.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.904 Buy
20-DMA   107.58 Buy
50-DMA   107.37 Sell
100-DMA   107.90 Sell
200-DMA   108.37 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   82.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1448 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING