AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Thursday morning in Asia, reversing earlier losses as investors turn towards the safe-haven asset. Wednesday’s hopes for a COVID-19 vaccine dimmed, with doubts surfacing over the efficacy of Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA)'s potential COVID-19 vaccine in immunizing against the disease. Moderna said on Tuesday that all 45 volunteers participating in a study for the vaccine developed high levels of virus-killing antibodies. ANZ analysts still remained optimistic, saying in a note, "Results like this are encouraging... without a vaccine, devastating health impacts will continue, with significant economic implications. The stakes couldn't be higher." But COVID-19 continues its rampage globally, with over 13.5 million cases and almost 600,000 death as of July 16, according to Johns Hopkins University data. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump privately ruled out further sanctions against Chinese entities involved in enacting Hong Kong’s national security laws on Wednesday, attempting to diffuse escalating U.S.-China tensions. But tensions remain in place, with China threatening to retaliate after Trump also stripped Hong Kong of its special trading privileges and signed an executive order for initial sanctions on Tuesday. China reported a 3.2% growth in its second-quarter GDP year-on-year, with the country dodging a recession amid COVID-19’s economic impact. Data on June factory output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment was also released earlier in the day. The GBP/USD pair was down 0.08% to 1.2569. Tensions between the U.K. and China are also rising over the U.K. directive to purge Huawei equipment from the country’s telecommunication network by 2027. . The euro (EUR=) hovered just below a four-month top touched overnight on hopes that European leaders can agree on a recovery fund. The mood pushed the safe-haven Swiss franc half a percent lower overnight and it lifted the crude price and oil exporters' currencies along with it. The Norwegian krone rose to a one-month high of 9.2715 per dollar and the Canadian dollar advanced to a week high of 1.1305 on the greenback. Moves in Asian morning trade were small as markets waited for Chinese growth data due around 0200 GMT for the latest update on the recovery of the world's second-largest economy. President Donald Trump has not ruled out additional sanctions on top Chinese officials over Beijing's crackdown in Hong Kong, a White House spokesman said on Tuesday. Investors' focus in the Asian day is on second-quarter GDP data from China, along with June factory output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment. A Reuters poll found analysts expect China to report 2.5% growth, reversing a 6.8% first-quarter decline driven by the pandemic. All 30 analysts polled by Reuters see the Bank of Korea keeping rates unchanged at 0.50% around 0100 GMT, while it is a closer call in Indonesia where the rupiah has been on a slide leading in to Thursday's central bank meeting.
  • Oil prices eased on Thursday after OPEC and allies such as Russia agreed to taper record supply curbs from August, though the drop was cushioned by hopes for a swift U.S. demand pick-up after a big drawdown from the country's crude stocks. The OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, agreed on Wednesday to scale back oil production cuts from August as the global economy slowly recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. OPEC+ has been cutting output since May by 9.7 million barrels per day, or 10% of global supply, but from August, cuts will officially taper to 7.7 million bpd until December. Data from the Energy Information Administration showed U.S. crude inventories fell 7.5 million barrels last week, shrinking much more than the 2.1 million-barrel drop expected by analysts in a Reuters poll. Despite the official OPEC+ accord, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said production cuts in August and September would end up amounting to about 8.1 million-8.3 million bpd, more than the headline number. That's because countries in the grouping which over-produced earlier this year would compensate by making extra August-September cuts, the minister said. Oil prices are expected to remain boxed in as more supply from OPEC+ countries will likely be absorbed by recovering demand, said Tsutomu Kosuge, president of commodity research firm Marketedge Co. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo took fresh aim at China on Wednesday, saying the United States would impose visa restrictions on Chinese firms like Huawei Technologies that he accused of facilitating human-rights violations. Rystad Energy also predicted that oil prices will stay where they are for the rest of 2020 as any uptick will hurt already struggling refining margins and negatively impact the most-needed recovery in refinery runs, it said in a note. Elsewhere, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Wednesday that global oil markets are slowly rebalancing after the shocks seen during the coronavirus lockdown, with prices expected at about $40/barrel in the coming months. Oil was down on Thursday morning in Asia as OPEC announced the easing of production cuts after its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting on Wednesday. Starting in August, the group will cut production by 7.7 million barrels per day, compared to the current 9.7 million bpd cut currently in place." Meanwhile, U.S.-China relations continue to simmer. After U.S. President Donald Trump ended Hong Kong’s preferential status on Tuesday, China threatened counter sanctions against U.S. institutions and individuals.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
16th July 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,822-1,831 1,840 1,849-1858
Silver-XAG 19.60-20.10 20.50 21.00-21.50
Crude Oil 41.20 42.00 43.40-44.20
EURO/USD 1.1450-1.1500 1.1540 1.1600
GBP/USD 1.2600-1.2680 1.2760 1.2810-1.2870
USD/JPY 107.50-107.90 108.40 109.40-110.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
16th July 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,800-1,789 1,780 1,760-1,754
Silver-XAG 19.05-18.55 18.00 ¬17.50-17.25
Crude Oil 40.00-39.50 38.50 37.60-37.10
EURO/USD 1.1300 1.1300 1.1250-1.1205
GBP/USD 1.2550-1.2490 1.2430 1.2320-1.2250
USD/JPY 106.90-106.50 105.50 105.00-104.30

Intra-Day Strategy (16th July 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1814.96/oz and low of US$1802.33/oz. Gold up 0.0354% at US$1808.47/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1642) and breakage below will call for 1600. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1800-1727 with risk below 1720, targeting 1822-1831-1840 and 1849-1858. Sell below 1822-1858 keeping stop loss closing above 1858, targeting 1800-1789-1780 and 1760-1754-1748.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,800-1,789
S2     1,780
S3     1,760-1,754
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,822-1,831
R2     1,840
R3     1,849-1858

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

68.982

Buy
20-DMA   1757.32 Buy
50-DMA  

1732.51

Buy
100-DMA   1683.67 Buy
200-DMA   1597.60 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   90.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   16.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$19.46/oz and low of US$19.12/oz settled up by 0.140% at US$19.25/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (16.93), breakage below will lead to 16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 19.05-17.55 targeting 19.60-20.10-20.50 and 21.00-21.50; stop breakage below 17.00. Sell below 19.60-21.50 with stop loss above 21.50; targeting 19.05-18.55-18.00 and 17.50-17.25-16.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     19.05-18.55
S2     18.00
S3     ¬17.50-17.25

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     19.60-20.10
R2     20.50
R3     21.00-21.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   75.514 Buy
20-DMA   18.08 Buy
50-DMA   17.42 Buy
100-DMA   16.29 Buy
200-DMA   16.91 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   76.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.434 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US41.42/bbl, intraday low of US$40.27/bbl and settled up by 1.017% to close at US$41.08/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 40.10-35.70 with risk daily closing below 35.00 and targeting 41.20-42.00-43.40 and 44.00-45.00. Sell in between 41.20-44.60 with stop loss at 44.60; targeting 40.60-39.50-38.50 and 37.10-36.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     40.00-39.50
S2     38.50
S3     37.60-37.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     41.20
R2     42.00
R3     43.40-44.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.0994 Sell
20-DMA   39.63 Buy
50-DMA   35.71 Buy
100-DMA   32.11 Buy
200-DMA   44.18 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   53.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.206 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1390/EUR, high of US$1.1451/EUR and settled the day up by 0.111% to close at US$1.1410/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1400-1.1030 with risk below 1.1030, targeting 1.1450-1.1495 and 1.1540-1.1600. Sell below 1.1400-1.1605 targeting 1.1400-1.1360-1.1300 and 1.1235-1.1190 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1605.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1300
S2     1.1300
S3     1.1250-1.1205

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1450-1.1500
R2     1.1540
R3     1.1600

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.032 Buy
20-DMA   1.1284 Buy
50-DMA   1.1161 Buy
100-DMA   1.1059 Buy
200-DMA   1.1055 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   81.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2540/GBP, high of US$1.2648/GBP and settled the day up by 0.278% to close at US$1.2586/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2600-1.2950 with targets at 1.2490-1.2410 and 1.2320-1.2250-1.2165 stop-loss should be 1.2950. Buy above 1.2550-1.2100 with targets 1.2600-1.2680-1.2760-1.2810 and 1.2870-1.2950 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2550-1.2490
S2     1.2430
S3     1.2320-1.2250

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2600-1.2680
R2     1.2760
R3     1.2810-1.2870

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.904

Buy
20-DMA   1.2473 Buy
50-DMA   1.2424 Buy
100-DMA   1.2437 Sell
200-DMA   1.2684 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   77.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY106.66/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.30/USD and settled the day down by 0.276% at JPY106.92/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY106.66/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.30/USD and settled the day down by 0.276% at JPY106.92/USD.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.00-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 106.50-105.60 and 105.00-104.50. Long positions above 107.50-104.00 with targets of 107.90-108.40 and 109.40-110.20 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.90-106.50
S2     105.50
S3     105.00-104.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.50-107.90
R2     108.40
R3     109.40-110.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.904 Buy
20-DMA   107.21 Sell
50-DMA   107.45 Sell
100-DMA   107.53 Sell
200-DMA   108.36 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   44.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1448 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING