AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was up on Friday morning in Asia, with investors turning to the safe-haven asset as the number of COVID-19 cases continue to be smash records. The U.S. recorded at least 75,000 cases over a 24-hour period on Thursday, and Brazil surpassed the 2 million mark the same day. The surging number of cases prompted investor fears over the global economic recovery, with more states re-implementing lockdowns. There are over 13.7 million cases globally as of July 17, according to Johns Hopkins University data With some U.S. COVID-19 stimulus measures due to expire at the end of July, the U.S. Congress is scheduled to debate further measures the following week. Investors will be watching to see how what measures will be passed to prop up the world's largest economy against COVID-19's impact. The U.S. is considering banning all members of the Chinese Communist Party and their families from traveling to the U.S., reversing President Donald Trump’s move on Wednesday to halt further sanctions. The past week has not been a good one for U.S.-China relations, with the U.S. disputing Chinese claims in the South China Sea and Trump removing Hong Kong’s special trade status as well as approving initial sanctions against Chinese entities involved in enacting Hong Kong's national security laws. The latest move soured relations between the two countries even further, giving the dollar a further boost.
  • The dollar held onto gains against most currencies as worries that a resurgence in the coronavirus is starting to curb economic activity drew safe-haven flows into the U.S. currency. One notable exception was the euro, which was well supported by hopes that European officials will agree on fiscal stimulus measures at a meeting starting later on Friday Some investors say they are beginning to see troubling signs in recent data that a relentless surge in coronavirus infections is threatening the U.S. economy. Others point to a widening diplomatic row between the United States and China as reason to avoid risky trades, which should keep the dollar supported for the time being. For the week, the dollar was on course for gains against the yen, sterling, and the Swiss franc due to safe-haven inflows. Another jump in coronavirus infections has forced California and other U.S. states to at least partially shut down again, raising fears the economy and labour market will continue to struggle. In addition, U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is considering banning travel to the United States by all members of the Chinese Communist Party, according to a person familiar with the matter, in a move that would surely put further strain on relations between Washington and Beijing. This week the United States has ratcheted up the pressure on China in a wide-ranging dispute over civil liberties, access to technology, and territorial claims that some analysts liken to a new cold war. The yuan was steady in offshore trade but could face some selling pressure once onshore markets open as investors grow concerned about how China will retaliate. The euro will take centre stage later on Friday as European Union leaders will meet in Brussels as they seek to overcome their differences over a proposed stimulus package. The stakes are high because the coronavirus pandemic has caused considerable damage and some short-term measures supporting the labour market will soon expire.
  • Oil prices edged lower on Friday, with trading marked by growing uncertainty about global recovery in fuel demand as new COVID-19 cases surge in several countries just as major producers get set to loosen production curbs. On Thursday, the United States reported at least 75,000 new COVID-19 cases, a daily record. Spain and Australia reported their steepest daily jumps in more than two months, cases continued to soar in India and Brazil stepped up lockdown measures. Surges in coronavirus infections are slowing a recovery in fuel use after the easing of lockdowns in the United States and other countries, raising concern it could be years before consumption rebounds from the impact of the pandemic. The two benchmark contracts fell 1% on Thursday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, together known as OPEC+, agreed to trim record supply cuts of 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) imposed earlier this year by 2 million bpd starting in August. But the actual increase in output will be closer to 1 million bpd, as countries like Iraq - which overproduced compared with their commitments to cut supply in May through July - agreed to bigger reductions in August and September, said Vivek Dhar, commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY). The market took some heart with the agreement for some to compensate for previous non-compliance with commitments at a time when there is uncertainty over demand growth, said Dhar. Analysts expect the market to remain in the $40-$45 a barrel range, with the looming return of some U.S. supply and uncertainty over fuel demand as new lockdowns may be needed to curb the resurgence of COVID-19 cases.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
17th July 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,822-1,831 1,840 1,849-1858
Silver-XAG 19.60-20.10 20.50 21.00-21.50
Crude Oil 41.20 42.00 43.40-44.20
EURO/USD 1.1400-1.1450 1.1500 1.1540-1.1600
GBP/USD 1.2600-1.2680 1.2760 1.2810-1.2870v
USD/JPY 107.50-107.90 108.40 109.40-110.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
17th July 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,800-1,789 1,780 1,760-1,754
Silver-XAG 19.05-18.55 18.00 17.50-17.25
Crude Oil 40.00-39.50 38.50 37.60-37.10
EURO/USD 1.1360 1.1300 1.1250-1.1205
GBP/USD 1.2550-1.2490 1.2430 1.2320-1.2250
USD/JPY 106.90-106.50 105.50 105.00-104.30

Intra-Day Strategy (17th July 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1813.28/oz and low of US$1794.81/oz. Gold down 0.761% at US$1795.98/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1642) and breakage below will call for 1600. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1800-1727 with risk below 1720, targeting 1822-1831-1840 and 1849-1858. Sell below 1822-1858 keeping stop loss closing above 1858, targeting 1800-1789-1780 and 1760-1754-1748.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,800-1,789
S2     1,780
S3     1,760-1,754
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,822-1,831
R2     1,840
R3     1,849-1858

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

62.982

Buy
20-DMA   1784.32 Buy
50-DMA  

1747.51

Buy
100-DMA   1695.67 Buy
200-DMA   1607.60 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   44.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   18.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$19.45/oz and low of US$19.06/oz settled up by 0.140% at US$19.06/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (16.93), breakage below will lead to 16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 19.05-17.55 targeting 19.60-20.10-20.50 and 21.00-21.50; stop breakage below 17.00. Sell below 19.60-21.50 with stop loss above 21.50; targeting 19.05-18.55-18.00 and 17.50-17.25-16.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     19.05-18.55
S2     18.00
S3     17.50-17.25

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     19.60-20.10
R2     20.50
R3     21.00-21.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   75.514 Buy
20-DMA   18.08 Buy
50-DMA   17.42 Buy
100-DMA   16.29 Buy
200-DMA   16.91 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   76.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.434 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US41.34/bbl, intraday low of US$40.66/bbl and settled down by 1.009% to close at US$40.78/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 40.10-35.70 with risk daily closing below 35.00 and targeting 41.20-42.00-43.40 and 44.00-45.00. Sell in between 41.20-44.60 with stop loss at 44.60; targeting 40.60-39.50-38.50 and 37.10-36.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     40.00-39.50
S2     38.50
S3     37.60-37.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     41.20
R2     42.00
R3     43.40-44.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.0994 Sell
20-DMA   39.63 Buy
50-DMA   35.71 Buy
100-DMA   32.11 Buy
200-DMA   44.18 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   53.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.206 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday an intraday low of US$1.1369/EUR, high of US$1.1393/EUR and settled the day down by 0.242% to close at US$1.1383/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1360-1.1030 with risk below 1.1030, targeting 1.1400-1.1450-1.1495 and 1.1540-1.1600. Sell below 1.1400-1.1605 targeting 1.1400-1.1360-1.1300 and 1.1235-1.1190 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1605.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1360
S2     1.1300
S3     1.1250-1.1205

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1400-1.1450
R2     1.1500
R3     1.1540-1.1600

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.032 Buy
20-DMA   1.1284 Buy
50-DMA   1.1161 Buy
100-DMA   1.1059 Buy
200-DMA   1.1055 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   81.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2519/GBP, high of US$1.2623/GBP and settled the day down by 0.270% to close at US$1.2552/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2600-1.2950 with targets at 1.2490-1.2410 and 1.2320-1.2250-1.2165 stop-loss should be 1.2950. Buy above 1.2550-1.2100 with targets 1.2600-1.2680-1.2760-1.2810 and 1.2870-1.2950 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2550-1.2490
S2     1.2430
S3     1.2320-1.2250

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2600-1.2680
R2     1.2760
R3     1.2810-1.2870v

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.904

Buy
20-DMA   1.2473 Buy
50-DMA   1.2424 Buy
100-DMA   1.2437 Sell
200-DMA   1.2684 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   77.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY106.82/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.39/USD and settled the day up by 0.288% at JPY107.23/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.00-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 106.50-105.60 and 105.00-104.50. Long positions above 107.50-104.00 with targets of 107.90-108.40 and 109.40-110.20 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.90-106.50
S2     105.50
S3     105.00-104.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.50-107.90
R2     108.40
R3     109.40-110.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.904 Buy
20-DMA   107.21 Sell
50-DMA   107.45 Sell
100-DMA   107.53 Sell
200-DMA   108.36 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   44.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1448 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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