AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares posted gains on Monday and the euro rose to four-month highs, as EU leaders appeared to make some headway after three days of haggling on a plan to revive their economies, even as coronavirus cases increased in many countries. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said EU leaders were making progress but warned discussions could still fall apart, while summit chairman Charles Michel urged them to make one last push on “mission impossible”. However, it was likely to be “a very long and winding road” before a deal is reached, he added. EU leaders are at odds over how to carve up a vast recovery fund designed to help haul Europe out of its deepest recession since World War Two, and what strings to attach for countries it would benefit. Diplomats said it was possible that they would abandon the summit and try again for an agreement next month. China stocks jumped 2.5%, led by financial firms, after regulators moved to bolster the market by lifting the equity investment cap for insurers and encouraging mergers and acquisitions among brokerages and mutual fund houses. More than 14 million people have been infected by the novel coronavirus globally and nearly 602,000 have died, according to a Reuters tally. In the United States, Congress is set to begin debating a new aid package this week, as several states in the country’s South and West implement fresh lockdown measures to curb the virus. The virus has claimed over 140,000 U.S. lives since the pandemic started, and Florida, California, Texas and other southern and western states shatter records for new cases every day. Prices for copper, a barometer of economic growth, fell on Monday after data showed rising inventories in Chinese warehouses and on concern the climbing coronavirus cases threaten a sustainable global recovery.
  • The dollar was up on Monday morning in Asia, with investors awaiting the results of a U.S. Congress debate over fresh COVID-19 stimulus measures later in the week. Debate over the bill started last week, with some current measures due to expire at the end of July. But Republicans and Democrats are already in disagreement, with Republicans wanting the bill to cost no more than $1 trillion while the Democrats want measures totaling around $3 trillion. Meanwhile, COVID-19 numbers continue a never-ending climb. There are almost 14.5 million COVID-19 cases and over 600,000 deaths globally as of July 20, according to Johns Hopkin University data. Dampened hopes of a quick recovery also saw investors turning to the safe-have asset. Elsewhere in Europe, the Euro rose against the dollar as the EU reached an impasse over a proposed EUR750 billion ($856.969 billion) COVID-19 recovery fund. Some members are pushing to reduce the fund amount, as well as limit the ratio of grants against loans, during a summit ironing out fund details. Although the impasse could see the summit abandoned and a second try in August, some investors were optimistic on the prospects of a deal. The euro jumped to a four-month high against the dollar on Monday, boosted by European leaders saying progress was being made in talks to take on debt jointly to help their economies. The euro gained 0.2% to $1.1452 (EUR=), having risen to as high as $1.14555, its loftiest level since March, as EU leaders appeared within a whisker of breaking an impasse over a proposed 750 billion euro ($858.30 billion) recovery fund. With the marathon talks adjourned until 1600 CET (1400 GMT) on Monday, Austrian Chancellor Sebestian Kurz and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, leaders from two of the so-called "frugal four", said progress was being made. Rutte said talks had been close to failing, but the chairman was now working on a new EU compromise proposal. The 750 billion euros proposed for the fund are to be raised on behalf of EU countries on capital markets by the EU's executive European Commission While that would be a historic step towards greater fiscal integration for the union, a group of "frugal" wealthy north European states have been reluctant, pushing for a smaller fund and seeking to limit how payouts are split between grants and repayable loans. As European Council President Charles Michel urged leaders to achieve "mission impossible", diplomats said it was possible that they would abandon the summit and try again for an agreement next month. But many market players also believe the euro will be supported even if the deal is not reached this time, as long as there remains the prospect of a deal on the stimulus. The dollar index was flat at 95.948, with its advance kept in check as investor risk appetite continues to be strong, underpinned by bets of more stimulus not just from Europe but also the United States. A battle in the U.S. Congress over a new coronavirus-aid bill began late last week as Republicans and Democrats pushed for their own agenda. The Republicans want the upcoming coronavirus aid bill to cost no more than $1 trillion while leading Democrats have pledged to fight for much more - in the range of the $3 trillion bill Expectations of more government spending have offset worries about rising coronavirus cases in the United States as well as fears over deteriorating U.S.-China relations.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
20th July 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,822-1,831 1,840 1,849-1858
Silver-XAG 19.60-20.10 20.50 21.00-21.50
Crude Oil 42.00 42.00 43.40-44.20
EURO/USD 1.1450 1.1500 1.1540-1.1600
GBP/USD 1.2600-1.2680 1.2760 1.2810-1.2870
USD/JPY 107.50-107.90 108.40 109.40-110.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
20th July 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,800-1,789 1,780 1,760-1,754
Silver-XAG 19.05-18.55 18.00 17.50-17.25
Crude Oil 40.00-39.50 38.50 37.60-37.10
EURO/USD 1.1400-1.1360 1.1300 1.1250-1.1205
GBP/USD 1.2550-1.2490 1.2430 1.2320-1.2250
USD/JPY 106.90-106.50 105.50 105.00-104.30

Intra-Day Strategy (20th July 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1811.86/oz and low of US$1793.68/oz. Gold up 1.00% at US$1811.71/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1642) and breakage below will call for 1600. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1800-1727 with risk below 1720, targeting 1822-1831-1840 and 1849-1858. Sell below 1822-1858 keeping stop loss closing above 1858, targeting 1800-1789-1780 and 1760-1754-1748.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,800-1,789
S2     1,780
S3     1,760-1,754
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,822-1,831
R2     1,840
R3     1,849-1858

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

62.982

Buy
20-DMA   1784.32 Buy
50-DMA  

1747.51

Buy
100-DMA   1695.67 Buy
200-DMA   1607.60 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   44.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   18.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$19.37/oz and low of US$18.90/oz settled up by 0.972% at US$19.31/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (16.93), breakage below will lead to 16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 19.05-17.55 targeting 19.60-20.10-20.50 and 21.00-21.50; stop breakage below 17.00. Sell below 19.60-21.50 with stop loss above 21.50; targeting 19.05-18.55-18.00 and 17.50-17.25-16.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     19.05-18.55
S2     18.00
S3     17.50-17.25

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     19.60-20.10
R2     20.50
R3     21.00-21.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   75.514 Buy
20-DMA   18.08 Buy
50-DMA   17.42 Buy
100-DMA   16.29 Buy
200-DMA   16.91 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   76.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.434 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US41.02/bbl, intraday low of US$40.16/bbl and settled down by 0.508% to close at US$40.66/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 40.10-35.70 with risk daily closing below 35.00 and targeting 41.20-42.00-43.40 and 44.00-45.00. Sell in between 41.20-44.60 with stop loss at 44.60; targeting 40.60-39.50-38.50 and 37.10-36.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     40.00-39.50
S2     38.50
S3     37.60-37.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     42.00
R2     42.00
R3     43.40-44.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.0994 Sell
20-DMA   39.63 Buy
50-DMA   35.71 Buy
100-DMA   32.11 Buy
200-DMA   44.18 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   53.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.206 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1374/EUR, high of US$1.1443/EUR and settled the day up by 0.390% to close at US$1.1427/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1400-1.1030 with risk below 1.1030, targeting 1.1450-1.1495 and 1.1540-1.1600. Sell below 1.1450-1.1605 targeting 1.1400-1.1360-1.1300 and 1.1235-1.1190 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1605.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1400-1.1360
S2     1.1300
S3     1.1250-1.1205

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1450
R2     1.1500
R3     1.1540-1.1600

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.032 Buy
20-DMA   1.1284 Buy
50-DMA   1.1161 Buy
100-DMA   1.1059 Buy
200-DMA   1.1055 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   81.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2511/GBP, high of US$1.2673/GBP and settled the day up by 0.126% to close at US$1.2566/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2600-1.2950 with targets at 1.2490-1.2410 and 1.2320-1.2250-1.2165 stop-loss should be 1.2950. Buy above 1.2550-1.2100 with targets 1.2600-1.2680-1.2760-1.2810 and 1.2870-1.2950 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2550-1.2490
S2     1.2430
S3     1.2320-1.2250

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2600-1.2680
R2     1.2760
R3     1.2810-1.2870

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

54.904

Buy
20-DMA   1.2473 Buy
50-DMA   1.2424 Buy
100-DMA   1.2437 Sell
200-DMA   1.2684 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   77.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY106.93/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.35/USD and settled the day down by 0.195% at JPY107.02/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.50-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 106.90-106.50-105.60 and 105.00-104.50. Long positions above 107.00-104.00 with targets of 107.90-108.40 and 109.40-110.20 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.90-106.50
S2     105.50
S3     105.00-104.30

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.50-107.90
R2     108.40
R3     109.40-110.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.904 Buy
20-DMA   107.21 Sell
50-DMA   107.45 Sell
100-DMA   107.53 Sell
200-DMA   108.36 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   44.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1448 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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