AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The U.S. dollar was down on Wednesday morning in Asia over continuous investor worries over the U.S. economic recovery that capped the greenback’s gains. Investors are no longer able to count on higher returns from the dollar relative to other currencies, due to the question marks over U.S. economic growth. The Fed is scheduled to convene later in the day and is widely expected to retain its dovish stance as the economy continues to be impacted by COViD-19. Four states reported record numbers of COVID-19 cases over a 24-hour period on Tuesday, with over 4.3 million cases reported nationwide as of July 29, according to Johns Hopkins University. The dollar’s loss was gold's gain, with investors flocking to the safe-haven yellow metal and keeping gold futures at record-high levels. Meanwhile, Republicans and Democrats continue to wrestle over the latest COVID-19 stimulus measures, with some Republicans opposed to even their own party’s proposed $1 trillion proposal. Investors will be watching to see whether a consensus can be reached before some measures expire on Friday. he dollar languished near two-year lows on Wednesday as the United States struggled to contain a spike in coronavirus cases, dashing hopes for a quick economic recovery.
  • The dour outlook for the world's largest economy is expected to see the U.S. Federal Reserve sticking to a dovish stance at its policy review later in the day, with dollar bears betting it could hint of other ways to loosen policy further down the road. Its weakness stemmed from an eroding perception that U.S. economic growth would be stronger than the rest of the developed world and that investors could count on higher returns in the dollar. U.S. consumer confidence fell more than expected in July, losing steam following two months of recovery, in a fresh sign that rising COVID-19 infections are dampening consumption. Four U.S. states in the south and west reported one-day records for coronavirus deaths on Tuesday and nationwide cases stayed high. Investors will be watching for any indications that the U.S. central bank will increase its purchases of longer-dated debt, implement yield caps or target higher inflation than it has previously indicated when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday. In fact, some market players think the dollar is long overdue for a pullback after the Fed's unprecedented money-printing since March to cope with a pandemic-triggered recession. The Fed's balance sheet has swelled about $3 trillion to as high as $7.17 trillion, much faster than those of other central banks as banks and corporates around the world sought dollar liquidity to survive lockdowns, though the tally has shrank slightly in recent weeks. Also weighing on the dollar were uncertainties over an additional fiscal package to support the economy. Some Republicans in the U.S. Senate have pushed back against their own party's $1 trillion coronavirus relief proposal while Democrats have called for much larger support, including a full extension of a $600-per-week enhanced coronavirus unemployment benefit.
  • Oil was up on Wednesday morning in Asia after the American Petroleum Institute (API) recorded a big draw in inventories, but the U.S. Congress' struggle to reach a deal on a new COVID-19 aid package capped gains. The black liquid gained on the back of the API recording a larger than expected draw in inventories in the U.S on Tuesday. There was a 6.829 million barrel draw last week, higher than the forecast of a 1.2-million-barrel draw prepared by Investing.com. But delays in the approval of a new COVID-19 stimulus package in the U.S. is putting pressure on oil prices. The White House and Republicans in Congress have not yet finalized a plan for a new package worth $1 trillion that was first put forward Tuesday. Negotiations aimed at reaching a compromise bill with Democrats also failed. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage on, also putting pressure on oil prices. The number of cases globally has reached 16.6 million while the number of deaths has topped 650,000 as of July 29, according to Johns Hopkins University data. Oil prices rose on Wednesday after an industry report showed that crude inventories in the United States fell against expectations, giving the market a boost amid record increases of coronavirus infections in the U.S. and elsewhere. Inventories of crude oil in the U.S. dropped by 6.8 million barrels last week to 531 million barrels, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday. Analysts' expectations were for an increase of 357,000 barrels. U.S. government data is due Wednesday. The raging COVID-19 pandemic is keeping alive concerns about falling fuel demand causing an oversupplied market as record numbers of infections are reported globally, including the U.S., the world's biggest consumer of oil. Four U.S. states reported one-day records for coronavirus deaths on Tuesday and cases in Texas passed the 400,000 mark. Attempts to provide relief amid the outbreak were in disarray as Republicans in the U.S. disagreed over their own plan for providing $1 trillion in new coronavirus aid on Tuesday. In Hong Kong, the government on Wednesday warned the city is on the edge of a large-scale coronavirus outbreak and urged people to stay indoors as much as possible.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
29th July 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,964 1,981-1,990 2,000
Silver-XAG 24.40-24.90 25.50 26.10-27.00
Crude Oil 42.00 43.40 44.20-45.00
EURO/USD 1.1750-1.1800 1.1850 1.1900-1.1950
GBP/USD 1.2950 1.3015-1.3090 1.3150
USD/JPY 105.50-106.00 106.50 106.90-107.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
29th July 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,950-1,944 1,927 1,911-1,900
Silver-XAG 24.00-23.50 22.80 22.00-21.50
Crude Oil 41.00-40.60 39.50 38.50-37.60
EURO/USD 1.1700-1.1650 1.1620 1.1540-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.2900-1.2840 1.2760 1.2680-1.2600
USD/JPY 104.90 104.30 103.90-103.10

Intra-Day Strategy (29th July 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1981.09/oz and low of US$1906.73/oz. Gold up 2.14% at US$1957.78/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1642) and breakage below will call for 1600. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1950-1900 with risk below 1880, targeting 1964-1981 and 1990-2000. Sell below 1964-2000 keeping stop loss closing above 2000, targeting 1950-1944-1927 and 1911-1900.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,950-1,944
S2     1,927
S3     1,911-1,900
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,964
R2     1,981-1,990
R3     2,000

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

87.982

Buy
20-DMA   1836.63 Buy
50-DMA  

1774.65

Buy
100-DMA   1715.98 Buy
200-DMA   1624.58 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   86.503 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   47.894 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$26.17/oz and low of US$22.27/oz settled down by 0.436% at US$24.38/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 200DMA (16.93), breakage below will lead to 16.30. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 24.00-21.55 targeting 24.40-24.90-25.50 and 26.10-27.00; stop breakage below 21.50. Sell below 24.90-27.00 with stop loss above 27.00; targeting 24.00-23.50-22.80 and 22.00-21.50-20.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     24.00-23.50
S2     22.80
S3     22.00-21.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.40-24.90
R2     25.50
R3     26.10-27.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   86.514 Buy
20-DMA   19.69 Buy
50-DMA   18.41 Buy
100-DMA   16.64 Buy
200-DMA   17.08 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   88.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.831 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US41.96/bbl, intraday low of US$40.90/bbl and settled down by 1.577% to close at US$41.06/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 40.60-37.60 with risk daily closing below 37.60 and targeting 41.20-42.00-43.40 and 44.00-45.00. Sell in between 42.00-44.60 with stop loss at 45.00; targeting 41.20-40.60-39.50 and 38.50-37.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     41.00-40.60
S2     39.50
S3     38.50-37.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     42.00
R2     43.40
R3     44.20-45.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.099 Sell
20-DMA   40.25 Buy
50-DMA   37.62 Buy
100-DMA   31.73 Buy
200-DMA   43.82 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   55.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.997 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday an intraday low of US$1.1698/EUR, high of US$1.1773/EUR and settled the day down by 0.305% to close at US$1.1714/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1700-1.1400 with risk below 1.1400, targeting 1.1750-1.1800 and 1.1850. Sell below 1.1750-1.1950 targeting 1.1700-1.1650-1.1620 and 1.1500-1.1450-1.1400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1700-1.1650
S2     1.1620
S3     1.1540-1.1450

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1750-1.1800
R2     1.1850
R3     1.1900-1.1950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.032 Buy
20-DMA   1.1284 Buy
50-DMA   1.1161 Buy
100-DMA   1.1059 Buy
200-DMA   1.1055 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   81.758 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2837/GBP, high of US$1.2952/GBP and settled the day up by 0.393% to close at US$1.2930/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.2647) is become major resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2950-1.3090 with targets at 1.2870-1.2760-1.2680 and 1.2600-1.2490-1.2410 stop-loss should be 1.3100. Buy above 1.2870-1.2430 with targets 1.2870-1.2950 and 1.2015-1.3090 with stop loss closing below 1.2400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2900-1.2840
S2     1.2760
S3     1.2680-1.2600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2950
R2     1.3015-1.3090
R3     1.3150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

55.904

Buy
20-DMA   1.2420 Buy
50-DMA   1.2651 Buy
100-DMA   1.2745 Sell
200-DMA   1.2905 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   90.940 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0305 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY104.95/USD and made an intraday high of JPY105.68/USD and settled the day down by 0.264% at JPY105.08/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 106.00-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 104.90-104.50 and 103.90-103.10. Long positions above 105.00-103.00 with targets of 106.00-106.50-106.90 and 107.90-108.40-109.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     104.90
S2     104.30
S3     103.90-103.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     105.50-106.00
R2     106.50
R3     106.90-107.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.904 Buy
20-DMA   107.21 Sell
50-DMA   107.45 Sell
100-DMA   107.53 Sell
200-DMA   108.36 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   44.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.1448 Sell

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING