AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar slipped and yen and yuan led Asia's currencies a little higher on Monday, as investors looked ahead to a slew of U.S. Federal Reserve speakers this week and to a decision on the inclusion of Chinese government bonds in a global index. Moves were slight and volumes light due to a public holiday in Japan. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, dipped 0.2% to 92.779. Foreigners' Chinese bond buying has helped put the yuan on a tear, lifting it nearly 6.5% in four months. The yen looked to break new ground, extending a week of solid gains amid trepidation about the global economic outlook and perhaps a shift in the yen's drivers as central banks pin rates around the world at or below zero. In the short term, analysts said the Fed's lower-for-longer commitment on rates would drag on the dollar, though close attention will be paid to remarks from committee members this week for any more clues on the new approach to inflation Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to appear before Congressional committees later this week while Fed committee members Lael Brainard, Charles Evans, Raphael Bostic, James Bullard, Mary Daly and John Williams also make public speeches. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to speak before Congressional committees later this week, while Fed committee members Charles Evans, Raphael Bostic, Lael Brainard, James Bullard, Mary Daly and John Williams (NYSE:WMB) are also scheduled to deliver speeches later in the week. Should they clarify on how the Fed will implement looser monetary policy settings in the wake of its relaxed approach to inflation, it could give the yen an even further boost.
  • The dollar is set to snap a two-week losing streak, raising concerns about whether the greenback has really found its footing after five-straight months of declines, with lower for longer interest rates expected to persist. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was flat at 92.97. The dollar's sluggish end to the week comes just days after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged and tied monetary policy guidance to inflation rising above 2% for some time. But the decision was accompanied by projections that suggest rates hikes would remain on hold at least through 2023, and inflation unlikely to get above the 2% level by then. Adding to the dollar woes, the prospect of the economy receiving another shot of stimulus from congress appears murky, at best, even as economists warn that a lack of fiscal support could halt the current economic rebound.
  • Oil inched up on Monday morning in Asia, with concerns about new supply from reopening Libyan reserves balanced out by news of yet another shutdown on the way for U.S rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, due to Tropical Storm Beta. Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar promised to lift his eight-month blockade of oil exports, prompting Libya’s National Oil Corp to lift the force majeure declaration over ports and facilities where there are no longer any fighters. As yet, it is unclear as to which facilities fit the definition, but the prospect of further supply to an already saturated market is creating downward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the Gulf of Mexico is bracing for the arrival of Tropical Storm Beta, the third storm storm to hit the area in less than a month following Hurricane Sally during the previous week and Hurricane Laura in late August. Beta is making its way toward the Texas coast, causing delays in the resumption of supply and refining disrupted by Sally. As of last Friday, 17% of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil production was offline. Tropical Storm Beta is the 23rd named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, a new record for storm numbers, and also well before the season is deemed to finish on November 30. The OPEC+ meeting held on September 17 helped nudge prices up to their current levels, with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman lambasting both over-quota member states and oil market speculators in a number of fiery statements. COVID-19 continues to see a rise in the global growth rate, with Europe particularly affected; the U.K. is contemplating a second national lockdown and several E.U. countries have already begun to reinstate preventative measures. Oil prices fell on Monday on the potential return of output from Libya as rising coronavirus cases also added to worries about global demand, although a tropical storm heading for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico limited losses. Workers at Libya's major Sharara field have restarted operations, two engineers working there said, after National Oil Corporation announced a partial lifting of force majeure. But it was still unclear when production might restart More than 30.78 mn people have been infected by the novel coronavirus and 954,843 have died globally, a Reuters tally shows, paralysing travel and business activity. Meanwhile, Royal Dutch Shell Plc halted some oil production and began evacuating workers from a U.S. Gulf of Mexico platform, the company said on Saturday. Tropical Storm Beta was predicted to bring 1 foot (30 centimetres) of rain to parts of coastal Texas and Louisiana as the 23rd named storm of this year's Atlantic hurricane season moves ashore on Monday night, the National Hurricane Center said. Oil and gas producers had been restarting their offshore operations over the weekend after being disrupted by Hurricane Sally.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
21st September 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,954-1,971 1,989 2,010-2,023
Silver-XAG 28.10 29.00 29.80-30.50
Crude Oil 41.10-41.60 42.55 43.25-44.00
EURO/USD 1.1860-1.1900 1.1955 1.2000
GBP/USD 1.3000-1.3050 1.3100 1.3210-1.3270
USD/JPY 105.50-104.90 106.10 106.90-107.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
21st September 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,940 1,924 1,915-1,900
Silver-XAG 27.00-26.55 26.10 25.10-24.50
Crude Oil 40.60 39.50 39.00-38.55
EURO/USD 1.1800-1.1730 1.1690 1.1635-1.1570
GBP/USD 1.2940-1.2900 1.2820 1.2735-1.2650
USD/JPY 104.30-103.90 103.50 103.10-102.50

Intra-Day Strategy (21st September 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1960.03/oz and low of US$1941.76/oz. Gold up 0.445% at US$1950.41/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1882) and breakage below will call for 1805. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1940-1870 with risk below 1890, targeting 1954-1971-1989 and 2010-2023. Sell below 1954-2010 keeping stop loss closing above 2010, targeting 1940-1924 and 1900-1889.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,940
S2     1,924
S3     1,915-1,900
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,954-1,971
R2     1,989
R3     2,010-2,023

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.043

Buy
20-DMA   1943.73 Buy
50-DMA  

1925.40

Buy
100-DMA   1828.38 Buy
200-DMA   1706.50 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   77.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   5.45 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$27.22/oz and low of US$26.67/oz settled down by 0.811% at US$26.75/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20DMA (21.60), breakage below will lead to 19.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 27.00-24.00 targeting 28.10-29.00 and 29.80-30.50-31.00, stop breakage below 24.00. Sell below 28.00-30.50 with stop loss above 30.50; targeting 27.10-26.55-26.10 and 25.00-24.30.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     27.00-26.55
S2     26.10
S3     25.10-24.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     28.10
R2     29.00
R3     29.80-30.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.514 Buy
20-DMA   27.06 Buy
50-DMA   25.41 Buy
100-DMA   21.33 Buy
200-DMA   18.92 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   55.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.914 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US41.71/bbl, intraday low of US$40.51/bbl and settled down by 0.259% to close at US$41.08/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 41.10-36.50 with risk daily closing below 36.50 and targeting 41.60-42.00 and 42.55-43.25-44.00. Sell in between 41.60-44.00 with stop loss at 44.00; targeting 41.10-40.60-39.50 and 39.00-38.55-37.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     40.60
S2     39.50
S3     39.00-38.55

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     41.10-41.60
R2     42.55
R3     43.25-44.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   23.194 Sell
20-DMA   41.76 Sell
50-DMA   41.32 Sell
100-DMA   36.63 Buy
200-DMA   41.29 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   9.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.738 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1825/EUR, high of US$1.1869/EUR and settled the day down by 0.055% to close at US$1.1840/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1800-1.1600 with risk below 1.1600, targeting 1.1900 and 1.1955-1.2050-1.2100. Sell below 1.1860-1.2250 targeting 1.1800-1.1730-1.1690 and 1.1635-1.1600 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1800-1.1730
S2     1.1690
S3     1.1635-1.1570

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1860-1.1900
R2     1.1955
R3     1.2000

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.032 Buy
20-DMA   1.1841 Buy
50-DMA   1.1755 Buy
100-DMA   1.1436 Buy
200-DMA   1.1220 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   55.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2913/GBP, high of US$1.2998/GBP and settled the day down by 0.434% to close at US$1.2916/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3000-1.3270 with targets at 1.2940-1.2900-1.2820 and 1.2735-1.2650 stop-loss should be 1.3210. Buy above 1.2940-1.2735 with targets 1.3180-1.3000-1.3050-1.3100 and 1.3210-1.3290 with stop loss closing below 1.3000.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2940-1.2900
S2     1.2820
S3     1.2735-1.2650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3000-1.3050
R2     1.3100
R3     1.3210-1.3270

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.904

Buy
20-DMA   1.3180 Sell
50-DMA   1.2911 Buy
100-DMA   1.2661 Buy
200-DMA   1.2734 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   17.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0124 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY104.22/USD and made an intraday high of JPY104.86/USD and settled the day down by 0.1499% at JPY104.53/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.50-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 104.50-103.90-103.50 and 103.10-102.50. Long positions above 106.50-103.00 with targets of 106.90-107.50 and 107.90-108.40-109.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     104.30-103.90
S2     103.50
S3     103.10-102.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     105.50-104.90
R2     106.10
R3     106.90-107.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.904 Buy
20-DMA   106.08 Sell
50-DMA   106.46 Sell
100-DMA   106.92 Sell
200-DMA   107.92 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   46.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.099 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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