AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar hovered near a two-month peak against a basket of currencies on Monday, as doubts about recovery persisted ahead of a barrage of economic data and political developments in the United States. While a rebound in U.S. stocks on Friday has helped to curb the ascent of the dollar, deemed as a safe-haven, signs of slowdown in the nascent recovery from the pandemic and political uncertainties have kept investors on guard. Data on U.S. currency futures positions released on Friday also pointed to more upside potential in the dollar's recovery, with speculators holding a big net short position in the greenback. U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed speculators held a net short position of $33.989 billion , up from $31.524 billion the week before and near the highest level in almost ten years. The flip side of that was a still very large net long positions in the euro, which showed a slight increase last week to $27.922 billion Investors now look to the first U.S. Presidential debate on Tuesday as the election in early November has started to loom large. Ahead of the debate, the New York Times reported on Sunday President Donald Trump paid extremely little in income taxes in recent years as heavy losses from his business enterprises offset hundreds of millions of dollars in income. Few investors now expect the U.S. Congress to pass any stimulus package, seen as vital to support the pandemic-stricken economy, before the election. But there are growing worries the economic recovery is slowing as many of the stimulus programmes have expired, curbing consumer spending. The week provides markets with more U.S. data to gauge the health of the world's biggest economy, including consumer confidence on Tuesday, a manufacturing survey and consumer data on Thursday and jobs data on Friday.
  • The dollar was down on Monday morning in Asia, with a lack of big moves ahead of the U.S. presidential debate on Tuesday and the release of U.S. economic data later in the week. Although boosted by a rebound in U.S. stocks during Friday’s session and hovering near a two-month peak, signs of a stall in the U.S. economic recovery and the continuous political uncertainty in the run up to the country’s November’s presidential election capped gains. With November’s election drawing closer, investors will be looking to the first presidential debate scheduled for Tuesday amid the uncertainty. Although hopes for the U.S. Congress to pass the latest stimulus measures before the election are dimming, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, expressed hope on Sunday that a deal can be reached as talks continue between the Democrats and the Republicans. Investors are also looking to the week's U.S. data, including September’s Conference Board (CB) consumer confidence index on Tuesday and the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Thursday, which are expected to show a slowdown in the recovery as many of the stimulus measures have expired, cutting consumer spending.
  • Gold was down on Monday morning in Asia, with uncertainty ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden hitting the yellow metal. Alongside the debate between Trump and Biden, investors are also looking to whether the U.S. Congress will reach an agreement on the latest stimulus measures. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi remained optimistic that the Democrats and Republicans could reach a deal soon, adding that talks between the two sides were continuing. The demand for physical gold crept up in top Asian hubs during the previous well, with Indian dealers easing discounts to the lowest levels since August, as falling prices led to little demand.
  • Oil prices dipped on Monday as rising coronavirus cases upset hopes for a smooth recovery in fuel demand, with the main crude benchmarks on track for their first monthly falls in multiple months after last week's slips. Brent is on track to fall for the first month in six while WTI is headed for its first monthly loss since April as the reimposition of mobility curbs in some countries clouds the outlook on fuel demand recovery. More crude is also being exported from OPEC producers Iran and Libya despite efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies to limit output Last week, U.S. energy firms also added oil and natural gas rigs for a second week in a row, according to Baker Hughes. Still, OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said on Sunday that commercial oil inventories in OECD countries are expected to stand only slightly above the five-year average in the first quarter of 2021, before falling below that level for the rest of the year. In Norway, one of the largest oil producers outside OPEC, a workers' strike that may take place on Sept. 30 is threatening to cut its production by 900,000 barrels per day, the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association (NOG) said on Friday Also, one of the heaviest clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan since 2016 broke out over the weekend, reigniting concern about stability in the South Caucasus, a corridor for pipelines carrying oil and gas to world markets. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday that money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Sept. 22.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
28th September 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,862-1,869 1,882 1889-1,900
Silver-XAG 22.90-23.30 24.00 24.50-25.20
Crude Oil 40.60-41.10 41.60 42.55-43.25
EURO/USD 1.1690-1.1730 1.1800 1.1860-1.1900
GBP/USD 1.2820-1.2900 1.2940 1.3000-1.3050
USD/JPY 105.50-104.90 106.10 106.90-107.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
28th September 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,850 1,842 1,820-1,809
Silver-XAG 22.20 21.65 21.00-19.50
Crude Oil 39.40-39.00 38.40 37.50-36.40
EURO/USD 1.1635 1.1570 1.1500-1.1460
GBP/USD 1.2725-1.2650 1.2600 1.2510-1.2450
USD/JPY 104.30-103.90 103.50 103.10-102.50

Intra-Day Strategy (28th September 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1875.07/oz and low of US$1852.18/oz. Gold down 0.202% at US$1863.65/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1882) and breakage below will call for 1805. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1850-1810 with risk below 1810, targeting 1862-1869-1882 and 1889-1900. Sell below 1869-1924 keeping stop loss closing above 1924, targeting 1850-1842-1820 and 1809-1791.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,850
S2     1,842
S3     1,820-1,809
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,862-1,869
R2     1,882
R3     1889-1,900

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

35.576

Buy
20-DMA   1929.85 Buy
50-DMA  

1941.38

Buy
100-DMA   1844.77 Buy
200-DMA   1723.15 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   13.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   14.45 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$22.42/oz and low of US$22.42/oz settled down by 1.068% at US$22.87/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20DMA (21.60), breakage below will lead to 19.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 21.65-18.50 targeting 22.20-22.90-24.00 and 24.50-25.10, stop breakage below 18.50. Sell below 24.00-28.50 with stop loss above 28.50; targeting 23.30-22.90 and 22.20-21.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     22.20
S2     21.65
S3     21.00-19.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     22.90-23.30
R2     24.00
R3     24.50-25.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   33.681 Buy
20-DMA   26.82 Buy
50-DMA   25.61 Buy
100-DMA   21.51 Buy
200-DMA   19.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   19.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.914 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US40.68/bbl, intraday low of US$39.77/bbl and settled down by 0.484% to close at US$40.01/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 39.40-36.50 with risk daily closing below 36.50 and targeting 40.60-41.60-42.00 and 42.55-43.25-44.00. Sell in between 40.60-44.00 with stop loss at 44.00; targeting 41.10-40.60-39.50 and 39.00-38.55-37.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     39.40-39.00
S2     38.40
S3     37.50-36.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     40.60-41.10
R2     41.60
R3     42.55-43.25

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   23.194 Sell
20-DMA   40.24 Sell
50-DMA   41.14 Sell
100-DMA   38.43 Buy
200-DMA   40.44 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   60.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.738 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1611/EUR, high of US$1.1684/EUR and settled the day down by 0.314% to close at US$1.1630/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1635-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460, targeting 1.1690-1.1730-1.1800 and 1.1900-1.1955. Sell below 1.1690-1.2000 targeting 1.1635-1.1570 and 1.1500-1.1460 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2050.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1635
S2     1.1570
S3     1.1500-1.1460

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1690-1.1730
R2     1.1800
R3     1.1860-1.1900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.032 Buy
20-DMA   1.1841 Buy
50-DMA   1.1755 Buy
100-DMA   1.1436 Buy
200-DMA   1.1220 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   55.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2686/GBP, high of US$1.2804/GBP and settled the day down by 0.010% to close at US$1.2746/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2820-1.3270 with targets at 1.2735-1.2650-1.2600 and 1.2510-1.2450 stop-loss should be 1.3270. Buy above 1.2735-1.2450 with targets 1.2820-1.2900-1.3000 and 1.3050-1.3100-1.3210 with stop loss closing below 1.3000.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2725-1.2650
S2     1.2600
S3     1.2510-1.2450

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2820-1.2900
R2     1.2940
R3     1.3000-1.3050

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.904

Buy
20-DMA   1.3180 Sell
50-DMA   1.2911 Buy
100-DMA   1.2661 Buy
200-DMA   1.2734 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   17.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0124 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY105.23/USD and made an intraday high of JPY105.69/USD and settled the day up by % at JPY105.60/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.00-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 104.50-103.90-103.50 and 103.10-102.50. Long positions above 106.50-103.00 with targets of 106.90-107.50 and 107.90-108.40-109.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     104.30-103.90
S2     103.50
S3     103.10-102.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     105.50-104.90
R2     106.10
R3     106.90-107.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.904 Buy
20-DMA   106.08 Sell
50-DMA   106.46 Sell
100-DMA   106.92 Sell
200-DMA   107.92 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   46.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.099 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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