AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar was steady in early European trade Tuesday, with traders keeping their powder dry ahead of the first U.S. presidential debate amid developments on the U.S. stimulus bill. Overnight, Democratic lawmakers unveiled a new $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief bill, which was described as a compromise measure. It’s true this price tag does bring the total cost nearer to the levels Republicans have said they would be prepared to accept, but the gap is still wide and trust between the two sides appears to be in short supply. All eyes will turn later Tuesday onto the first U.S. presidential election debate between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump, with the vote just over a month away. Markets are also awaiting a plethora of economic data releases to gauge the health of the world's biggest economy, including Tuesday's consumer confidence number, but more importantly, the jobs report on Friday - the final one before the election. Elsewhere, GBP/USD rose 0.3% to 1.2864, hitting a one-week high, following promising noises as the final round of scheduled Brexit trade discussions got underway. The Times reported that EU negotiators had signaled a willingness to begin work on drafting a detailed legal text, and that U.K. negotiators had agreed to present detailed proposals for fishing quotas and state aid. While both the EU and Britain said a post-Brexit agreement was still some way off, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said a deal was still possible. Helping the tone for the pound were comments from Bank of England deputy governor for markets and banking governor policymaker Dave Ramsden, who pushed back at the idea that the central bank was committed to negative interest rates.
  • The dollar was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, as the U.S. presidential debate and developments on the latest U.S. stimulus measures continue to remain in the spotlight. With November’s presidential election drawing closer, investors are focusing on the debate between President Donald Trump and Democrat candidate Joe Biden, due to take place later in the day. On that front, House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Monday that Democratic lawmakers would unveil a new $2.2 trillion COVID-19 relief bill, with the package’s price tag reduced as a compromise measure. The U.S. will also release economic data throughout the week, starting with September’s Conference Board (CB) consumer confidence index later in the day, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Thursday, and jobs data on Friday. Investors will be looking at the data to gauge the health of the world’s largest economy. China will also release economic data, including the manufacturing and non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) as well as the Caixin manufacturing PMI, on Wednesday. The pound extended gains from the previous session as the European Union (EU) and the U.K. begin a week-long round of talks. Although both parties cautioned that a post-Brexit agreement could take time to reach, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen was hopeful that a deal could still be possible.
  • Oil prices dropped on Tuesday, paring gains from the previous session, as persistent demand concerns due to the coronavirus pandemic outweighed hopes generated by a new U.S. stimulus package that lawmakers are struggling to agree. More than 1 million people have died of COVID-19 worldwide as of Tuesday, a Reuters tally showed, with fatalities and infections surging in several countries. Commodities markets crept up earlier in the day as Democratic lawmakers unveiled a new $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief bill, which U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said was a compromise measure. Brent and WTI in August hit their highest levels since early March on optimism over rising fuel demand and major oil producers' strong compliance with promised supply cuts. Since then, though, they have dropped about $3 on demand worries. Investors will be looking for signs of growth in U.S. demand from American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday and from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Five analysts polled by Reuters on average estimate U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 1.4 million barrels in the week to Sept. 25. They expect gasoline stockpiles fell by 1.6 million barrels and distillate inventories, which include diesel and jet fuel, fell by 800,000 barrels. Traders were also keeping an eye on clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. If the conflict escalates it could affect oil and gas exports from Azerbaijan, analysts said.
  • Meanwhile, data from Japan's Ministry of Finance showed that the country's imports of crude oil in August fell more than 25% from a year earlier. Oil prices rose in late trading overnight, with investors encouraged by the latest U.S. political developments. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced a new Democrat $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package that perked up the market. However, this may still not pass the Republican-dominated Senate, with the two sides still far apart on their goal Global oversupply fears pulled prices back down again when Asian trade opened. Libya’s crude production has soared this week, from 100,000 bpd to 250,000 bpd. Libyan oil production had been under a blockade for several months, lowering global supply and boosting prices. Iranian sanction-busting oil exports have also risen, with 1.5 million bpd now departing the country.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
29th September 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,882-1889 1,900 1921-1,949
Silver-XAG 24.00 24.50-25.20 26.00
Crude Oil 40.60-41.10 41.60 42.55-43.25
EURO/USD 1.1690-1.1730 1.1800 1.1860-1.1900
GBP/USD 1.2900 1.2940 1.3000-1.3050
USD/JPY 105.90-106.90 107.30 107.60-108.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
29th September 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,869-1,862 1,850 1,842-1,820
Silver-XAG 23.30-22.90 22.20 21.65-21.00
Crude Oil 39.40-39.00 38.40 37.50-36.40
EURO/USD 1.1635 1.1570 1.1500-1.1460
GBP/USD 1.2820-1.2725 1.2650 1.2600-1.2510
USD/JPY 105.50-104.90 104.30 103.90-103.10

Intra-Day Strategy (29th September 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1882.89/oz and low of US$1848.52/oz. Gold up 1.177% at US$1880.63/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1882) and breakage below will call for 1805. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1869-1810 with risk below 1810, targeting 1882 -1889-1900 and 1921-1949. Sell below 1869-1924 keeping stop loss closing above 1924, targeting 1869-1862-1850 and 1842-1820-1809.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,869-1,862
S2     1,850
S3     1,842-1,820
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,882-1889
R2     1,900
R3     1921-1,949

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

35.576

Buy
20-DMA   1929.85 Buy
50-DMA  

1941.38

Buy
100-DMA   1844.77 Buy
200-DMA   1723.15 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   13.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   14.45 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$23.71/oz and low of US$22.50/oz settled up by 3.35% at US$23.63/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20DMA (21.60), breakage below will lead to 19.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 23.30-21.50 targeting 24.00-24.50-25.10 and 26.00-26.50, stop breakage below 21.50. Sell below 24.00-28.00 with stop loss above 28.00; targeting 23.30-22.90 and 22.20-21.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.30-22.90
S2     22.20
S3     21.65-21.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.00
R2     24.50-25.20
R3     26.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   33.681 Buy
20-DMA   26.82 Buy
50-DMA   25.61 Buy
100-DMA   21.51 Buy
200-DMA   19.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   19.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.914 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US40.85/bbl, intraday low of US$39.77/bbl and settled down by 1.167% to close at US$40.57/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 39.40-36.50 with risk daily closing below 36.50 and targeting 40.60-41.60-42.00 and 42.55-43.25-44.00. Sell in between 40.60-44.00 with stop loss at 44.00; targeting 41.10-40.60-39.50 and 39.00-38.55-37.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     39.40-39.00
S2     38.40
S3     37.50-36.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     40.60-41.10
R2     41.60
R3     42.55-43.25

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   23.194 Sell
20-DMA   40.24 Sell
50-DMA   41.14 Sell
100-DMA   38.43 Buy
200-DMA   40.44 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   60.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.738 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday an intraday low of US$1.1611/EUR, high of US$1.1684/EUR and settled the day down by 0.314% to close at US$1.1630/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1635-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460, targeting 1.1690-1.1730-1.1800 and 1.1900-1.1955. Sell below 1.1690-1.2000 targeting 1.1635-1.1570 and 1.1500-1.1460 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2050.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1635
S2     1.1570
S3     1.1500-1.1460

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1690-1.1730
R2     1.1800
R3     1.1860-1.1900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.032 Buy
20-DMA   1.1841 Buy
50-DMA   1.1755 Buy
100-DMA   1.1436 Buy
200-DMA   1.1220 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   55.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2748/GBP, high of US$1.2929/GBP and settled the day up by 0.634% to close at US$1.2829/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2900-1.3270 with targets at 1.2820-1.2735-1.2650 and 1.2600-1.2510 stop-loss should be 1.3270. Buy above 1.2820-1.2450 with targets 1.2900-1.3000 and 1.3050-1.3100-1.3210 with stop loss closing below 1.3000.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2820-1.2725
S2     1.2650
S3     1.2600-1.2510

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2900
R2     1.2940
R3     1.3000-1.3050

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.904

Buy
20-DMA   1.3180 Sell
50-DMA   1.2911 Buy
100-DMA   1.2661 Buy
200-DMA   1.2734 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   17.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0124 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY105.25/USD and made an intraday high of JPY105.68/USD and settled the day up by 0.0075% at JPY105.46/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.90-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 105.50-104.50-103.90 and 103.50-103.10. Long positions above 106.50-103.00 with targets of 106.90-107.50 and 107.90-108.40-109.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     105.50-104.90
S2     104.30
S3     103.90-103.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     105.90-106.90
R2     107.30
R3     107.60-108.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.716 Buy
20-DMA   105.58 Sell
50-DMA   105.80 Sell
100-DMA   106.62 Sell
200-DMA   107.92 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   46.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.099 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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