AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar edged higher in early European trade Wednesday, with traders having to absorb the competing influences of healthy economic data from China as well as the contentious presidential debate between U.S. President Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden. President Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Biden, faced off in their first debate of the campaign in Cleveland on Tuesday, a debate which saw both sides trade insults while they attempted to discuss issues such as Trump’s leadership, the Covid-19 pandemic, the economy, and taxes. Earlier Wednesday, Chinese purchasing managers indexes for September had impressed, staying above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction and showed the second largest economy in the world continues to recover from Covid-19's impact. Data in Europe also painted a healthier picture. German retail sales rose much more than expected in August, potentially a guide for the country's unemployment data later in the session, while French consumer prices were flat in September over a twelve month period, as a sharp fall in the cost of energy offset higher food and tobacco prices. The global coronavirus death toll surpassed a million on Tuesday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. It has taken just three months for Covid-19 deaths to double from half a million, an accelerating rate of fatalities since the first death was recorded in China in early January. Investors are also focusing on the U.S. Congress’ progress towards passing the latest $2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus bill proposed by Democrats on Monday, although this is still seen as unlikely to pass through the Republican-controlled Senate. Elsewhere, GBP/USD fell 0.1% at 1.2843, but not far off a one-week high on continued hopes over a Brexit deal as the final round of scheduled trade discussions got underway Tuesday.
  • The dollar was up on Wednesday morning in Asia, with investors digesting economic data from China as well as the presidential debate between U.S. President Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden. The debate, the first of three scheduled in the run-up to the presidential election on Nov. 3, saw Trump and Biden chaotically debate issues such as Trump’s leadership, the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy, and taxes. But investors could not decide on a winner, with neither candidate scoring a decisive advantage. Investors are also focusing on the U.S. Congress’ progress towards passing the latest $2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus bill proposed by Democrats on Monday, after U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Tuesday that a deal with the Trump White House could be possible by this week, with further talks scheduled with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin later in the day. However, some investors were not optimistic that the bill would be passed by Congress in its current form. Although the manufacturing PMI was 51.5, beating the forecast 51.2 and August’s 51 readings and the non-manufacturing PMI was 55.9 against August’s 55.2, the Caixin manufacturing PMI of 53 was slightly under the forecast 53.1 and August’s 53.1 figures.
  • Oil prices extended losses on Wednesday on worries that rising coronavirus cases heading into the northern winter would lead to further restrictions on activity and curb demand for fuel. The benchmarks fell more than 3% on Tuesday as global COVID-19 cases passed 1 million, having doubled in three months Libya's Sarir oilfield, which was producing more than 300,000 barrels per day last year, restarted output after eastern forces lifted an eight-month blockade on energy facilities. CEOs of the world's biggest trading companies are forecasting a weak recovery for oil demand and little movement in prices in the coming months and potentially years. Weighing heavily on markets is the continued depressed demand for jet fuel, with air travel in the doldrums due to coronavirus restrictions and a general disinclination to travel Refineries have been trying to find ways to blend their product but an oversupply remains and some plants will be forced to shut down. Marathon Petroleum Corp (N:MPC), the largest oil refiner in the United States, started imposing job cuts on Tuesday, according to people familiar with the matter. To counter the fall in demand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is unlikely to increase oil production as planned from January next year, traders said on Tuesday. The market looked past data from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday showing U.S. crude oil stocks fell against expectations, focussing instead on the rise in gasoline inventories. Also keeping traders and investors on tenterhooks is the November presidential election, which may remain undetermined on election night, with both candidates contesting the results. President Donald Trump and Democratic contender Joe Biden ended a chaotic first debate late on Wednesday. Biden, 77, has held a consistent lead over Trump, 74, in national opinion polls, although surveys in the battleground states that will decide the election show a closer contes. Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday showed a draw of 831,000 barrels, as against an expected build of 1.4 million barrels, for the week ending Sept. 25, and following the previous week’s build of 691,000 barrels. However, this was insufficient to hold back the fall in prices.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th September 2020 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,890-1,900 1921 1,944-1,955
Silver-XAG 24.00 24.50-25.20 26.00
Crude Oil 40.60-41.10 41.60 42.55-43.25
EURO/USD 1.1730 1.1800 1.1860-1.1900
GBP/USD 1.2900 1.2940 1.3000-1.3050
USD/JPY 105.90-106.90 107.30 107.60-108.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th September 2020 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,882-1,869 1,862 1,850-1,8421,862
Silver-XAG 23.30-22.90 22.20 21.65-21.00
Crude Oil 39.00 38.40 37.50-36.40
EURO/USD 1.1690-1.1635 1.1570 1.1500-1.1460
GBP/USD 1.2820-1.2725 1.2650 1.2600-1.2510
USD/JPY 105.50-104.90 104.30 103.90-103.10

Intra-Day Strategy (30th September 2020)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1882.89/oz and low of US$1848.52/oz. Gold up 1.177% at US$1880.63/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1882) and breakage below will call for 1805. MACD is above zero line and histograms are also increasing trend and it will bring upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1882-1810 with risk below 1810, targeting 1890-1900 and 1921-1944-1955. Sell below 1900-1955 keeping stop loss closing above 1955, targeting 1882-1869-1862 and 1850-1842-1820.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,882-1,869
S2     1,862
S3     1,850-1,8421,862
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,890-1,900
R2     1921
R3     1,944-1,955

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

35.576

Buy
20-DMA   1929.85 Buy
50-DMA  

1941.38

Buy
100-DMA   1844.77 Buy
200-DMA   1723.15 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   13.503 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   14.45 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$4.39/oz and low of US$23.36/oz settled up by 2.22% at US$24.16/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 20DMA (21.60), breakage below will lead to 19.40. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 23.30-21.50 targeting 24.00-24.50-25.10 and 26.00-26.50, stop breakage below 21.50. Sell below 24.00-28.00 with stop loss above 28.00; targeting 23.30-22.90 and 22.20-21.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     23.30-22.90
S2     22.20
S3     21.65-21.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     24.00
R2     24.50-25.20
R3     26.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   33.681 Buy
20-DMA   26.82 Buy
50-DMA   25.61 Buy
100-DMA   21.51 Buy
200-DMA   19.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   19.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.914 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US40.77/bbl, intraday low of US$38.50/bbl and settled down by 3.72% to close at US$39.11/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining below its 50DMA i.e. 40.00 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 44.00. MACD is below zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 39.40-36.50 with risk daily closing below 36.50 and targeting 40.60-41.60-42.00 and 42.55-43.25-44.00. Sell in between 40.60-44.00 with stop loss at 44.00; targeting 41.10-40.60-39.50 and 39.00-38.55-37.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     39.00
S2     38.40
S3     37.50-36.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     40.60-41.10
R2     41.60
R3     42.55-43.25

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   23.194 Sell
20-DMA   40.24 Sell
50-DMA   41.14 Sell
100-DMA   38.43 Buy
200-DMA   40.44 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   60.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.738 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday an intraday low of US$1.1660/EUR, high of US$1.1744/EUR and settled the day up by 0.671% to close at US$1.1741/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1031), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1090. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1690-1.1460 with risk below 1.1460, targeting 1.1730-1.1800 and 1.1900-1.1955. Sell below 1.1730-1.2000 targeting 1.1690-1.1635-1.1570 and 1.1500-1.1460 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.2050.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1690-1.1635
S2     1.1570
S3     1.1500-1.1460

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1730
R2     1.1800
R3     1.1860-1.1900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.032 Buy
20-DMA   1.1841 Buy
50-DMA   1.1755 Buy
100-DMA   1.1436 Buy
200-DMA   1.1220 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   55.758 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2821/GBP, high of US$1.2902/GBP and settled the day up by 0.226% to close at US$1.2857/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 20DMA (1.3134) is become immediate support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to upward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2900-1.3270 with targets at 1.2820-1.2735-1.2650 and 1.2600-1.2510 stop-loss should be 1.3270. Buy above 1.2820-1.2450 with targets 1.2900-1.3000 and 1.3050-1.3100-1.3210 with stop loss closing below 1.3000.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2820-1.2725
S2     1.2650
S3     1.2600-1.2510

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2900
R2     1.2940
R3     1.3000-1.3050

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.904

Buy
20-DMA   1.3180 Sell
50-DMA   1.2911 Buy
100-DMA   1.2661 Buy
200-DMA   1.2734 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   17.940 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0124 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY105.33/USD and made an intraday high of JPY105.72/USD and settled the day up by 0.155% at JPY105.61/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 105.90-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 105.50-104.50-103.90 and 103.50-103.10. Long positions above 106.50-103.00 with targets of 106.90-107.50 and 107.90-108.40-109.40 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     105.50-104.90
S2     104.30
S3     103.90-103.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     105.90-106.90
R2     107.30
R3     107.60-108.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.716 Buy
20-DMA   105.58 Sell
50-DMA   105.80 Sell
100-DMA   106.62 Sell
200-DMA   107.92 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   46.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.099 Sell

AAFX TRADING
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